Atalanta vs Udinese Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Gewiss Stadium Sat, 7 Mar - 5:00 PM
Serie A
Atalanta ATA
2 – 2
Udinese UDI
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 5:00 PM
Gianluca Scamacca - 75', 79'
Goal
|
Goal
Thomas Kristensen - 39'
Keinan Davis - 55'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Atalanta 2–1 Udinese. The result saw Atalanta take the points. Atalanta showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 68%–32%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Atalanta showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Andrea Rapuano
Andrea Rapuano
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Costanzo
A. Costanzo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Mastrodonato
V. Mastrodonato
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Ferrieri Caputi
M. Ferrieri Caputi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 6.14
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
VS
Udinese K. Runjaic
K. Runjaic
1.61
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Torino Rank: W
Bologna Rank: W
Roma Rank: W
Inter Rank: L
Genoa Rank: W
Cagliari Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: L
Lecce Rank: L
Roma Rank: W
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Inter Rank: L
Pisa Rank: D
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 15 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atalanta
55.28%
Draw
25.93%
Away Udinese
18.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.76
42.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atalanta
Udinese
Power Score
54.76
42.86
League Position
7
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Udinese — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atalanta Udinese

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atalanta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Udinese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atalanta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Udinese
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.84
29.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.22
36.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atalanta +0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Udinese -0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atalanta
Udinese
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atalanta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Udinese
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atalanta Udinese
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atalanta Udinese
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Atalanta
Udinese
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atalanta ATA Home
11 matches
Udinese UDI Away
Match Record
4
Wins
1
6
Draws
6
1
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
18
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:11:07+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium
Gewiss Stadium
Capacity
23439
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrea Rapuano
Alessandro Costanzo
Vito Mastrodonato
Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Statistics

Possession
ATA
63%
UDI
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
22 Shots 8
61 Dangerous attacks 27
68 Possession 32
11 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
5 Substitutions 5
8 Goal Kicks 18
2 Successful Dribbles 5
7 Dribble Attempts 13
10 Successful Headers 23
1 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
17 Throwins 13
81 Ball Safe 80
15 Goal Attempts 7
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

123 Attacks 72

Possession

30 Successful Long Passes 23
62 Long Passes 58
507 Successful Passes 215
84 Successful Passes Percentage 74
602 Passes 289
16 Key Passes 5
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

21 Tackles 13
4 Interceptions 7
0 Saves 2
43 Duels Won 49

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 1
37 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

7 Fouls 10

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Berat Djimsiti → Sead Kolasinac
10th Substitution
87'
80'
Event
Juan Arizala → Hassane Kamara
9th Substitution
Event
Gianluca Scamacca
Header / 4th Goal
79'
76'
Event
Adam Buksa → Keinan Davis
8th Substitution
Event
Gianluca Scamacca
Header / 3rd Goal
75'
66'
Event
Maduka Okoye
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Arthur Atta → Nicolò Zaniolo
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Lennon Miller → Jakub Piotrowski
7th Substitution
Event
Nikola Krstović → Lazar Samardžić
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Nicola Zalewski → Odilon Kossounou
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Davide Zappacosta → Raoul Bellanova
5th Substitution
57'
55'
Event
Keinan Davis
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Marten de Roon
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Marten de Roon → Yunus Musah
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Oier Zarraga → Branimir Mlacic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Thomas Kristensen
Header / 1st Goal
20'
Event
Branimir Mlacic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
Event
4th Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jurgen Ekkelenkamp of Udinese takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Oier Zarraga.
90
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Lennon Miller from Udinese.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Lennon Miller from Udinese attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 2-2 between Atalanta and Udinese.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the match ending in a 2-2 draw between Atalanta and Udinese.
88
Update Update
Christian Kabasele from Udinese has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Update Update
Gianluca Scamacca from Atalanta committed a foul.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Berat Djimsiti comes on to replace Sead Kolasinac.
87
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to find the target. The cross was delivered by Lorenzo Bernasconi.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Berat Djimsiti comes on to replace Sead Kolasinac.
86
Attempt Attempt
Close call! Arthur Atta from Udinese took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Adam Buksa.
85
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Lennon Miller from Udinese has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Atalanta. Nikola Krstovic takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Maduka Okoye, the Udinese goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Gianluca Scamacca.
84
Update Update
Arthur Atta from Udinese committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Marten de Roon from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Atalanta after Maduka Okoye allowed the ball to go out of play.
82
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Juan Arizala replaces Hassane Kamara.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Substitution for Udinese: Juan Arizala replaces Hassane Kamara.
79
Corner Corner
Goal! It's now 2-2 between Atalanta and Udinese. Gianluca Scamacca from Atalanta scores with a header from the center of the box, directing it into the top left corner.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Adam Buksa replaces Keinan Davis.
76
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atalanta 1, Udinese 2. Gianluca Scamacca scores for Atalanta, heading the ball from the center of the box into the upper part of the net. The assist came from Nicola Zalewski, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
75
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Davide Zappacosta from Atalanta strikes with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but the shot is blocked.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after a deflection off Hassane Kamara.
71
Update Update
Sead Kolasinac of Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Update Update
Keinan Davis committed a foul against Udinese.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Lorenzo Bernasconi.
67
Update Update
Mario Pasalic from Atalanta earned a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Lorenzo Bernasconi from Atalanta was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
67
Update Update
Kingsley Ehizibue from Udinese committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Keinan Davis committed a foul against Udinese.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maduka Okoye from Udinese has been shown a yellow card.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Lennon Miller replaces Jakub Piotrowski.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Arthur Atta replaces Nicolò Zaniolo.
62
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Hassane Kamara from Udinese attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but it narrowly went wide to the left. The assist came from Keinan Davis.
61
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was denied. Gianluca Scamacca from Atalanta fired a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Davide Zappacosta, who set him up with a header.
59
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Kamaldeen Sulemana from Atalanta attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Lorenzo Bernasconi.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Nicola Zalewski replaces Odilon Kossounou.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Davide Zappacosta replaces Raoul Bellanova.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Nicola Zalewski comes on to replace Odilon Kossounou.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Udinese takes a 2-0 lead against Atalanta. Keinan Davis scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, placing it perfectly into the left corner of the net.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Oier Zarraga from Udinese takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marten de Roon from Atalanta has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
52
Update Update
Jakub Piotrowski from Udinese has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
52
Update Update
Marten de Roon from Atalanta committed a foul.
50
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Scamacca from Atalanta strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from outside the penalty area.
48
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Marten de Roon from Atalanta takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar.
47
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Mario Pasalic from Atalanta heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Lazar Samardzic, who delivered a cross.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after Keinan Davis allowed the ball to go out.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after Kingsley Ehizibue allowed the ball to go out.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Oier Zarraga comes on to replace Branimir Mlacic.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Marten de Roon replaces Yunus Musah.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after Thomas Kristensen allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with a score of Atalanta 0, Udinese 1.
45
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Gianluca Scamacca of Atalanta heads the ball from the center of the box, but it narrowly misses the target following a corner kick.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lazar Samardzic from Atalanta takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Gianluca Scamacca.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Oier Zarraga comes on to replace Branimir Mlacic.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after a deflection off Hassane Kamara.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Udinese takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Atalanta. Thomas Kristensen scores with a header from close range, placing the ball into the top left corner. The assist came from Nicolò Zaniolo, who delivered a precise cross following a corner kick.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Udinese after a foul by Lorenzo Bernasconi.
37
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Atalanta after Branimir Mlacic allowed the ball to go out of play.
36
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
35
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Christian Kabasele from Udinese.
32
Update Update
Gianluca Scamacca from Atalanta earned a free kick in the attacking zone.
32
Update Update
Christian Kabasele from Udinese committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Nicolò Zaniolo from Udinese committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Yunus Musah from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Hassane Kamara from Udinese earned a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Raoul Bellanova from Atalanta committed a foul.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Udinese after a play that resulted in a deflection off Marco Carnesecchi.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Udinese after a play that resulted in a foul by Lorenzo Bernasconi.
25
Update Update
Lazar Samardzic from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
25
Update Update
Thomas Kristensen from Udinese committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Isak Hien from Atalanta committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Keinan Davis from Udinese earned a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Lorenzo Bernasconi of Atalanta attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the left. The assist was provided by Mario Pasalic following a corner kick.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after Kingsley Ehizibue allowed the ball to go out.
21
Update Update
Isak Hien from Atalanta committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Keinan Davis of Udinese has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Update Update
Kamaldeen Sulemana from Atalanta earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
20
Update Update
Branimir Mlacic from Udinese committed a foul.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Branimir Mlacic of Udinese has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
18
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Atalanta after Hassane Kamara allowed the ball to go out.
18
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Isak Hien from Atalanta had a shot from the center of the box but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Lazar Samardzic, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
17
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Atalanta after a play that resulted in a deflection off Maduka Okoye.
15
Update Update
Yunus Musah from Atalanta committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Nicolò Zaniolo of Udinese earned a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Yunus Musah from Atalanta attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it went wide.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after Branimir Mlacic allowed the ball to go out of play.
10
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Gianluca Scamacca from Atalanta attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Lazar Samardzic, who delivered a precise through ball.
8
Update Update
Kamaldeen Sulemana from Atalanta earned a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Branimir Mlacic from Udinese committed a foul.
6
Attempt Attempt
Near miss! Kingsley Ehizibue from Udinese took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it just went wide of the target.
4
Update Update
Kamaldeen Sulemana of Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Update Update
Branimir Mlacic from Udinese committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Atalanta exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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