Hellas Verona vs Genoa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi Sun, 15 Mar - 11:30 AM
Serie A
Hellas Verona VER
0 Winner 2
Genoa GEN
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 11:30 AM
|
Goal
Vitinha - 61'
Leo Østigård - 86'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Hellas Verona 0–2 Genoa. The result saw Genoa take the points. Genoa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 42%–58%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Genoa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Marchetti
M. Marchetti
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
M. Scatragli
M. Scatragli
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
P. Laudato
P. Laudato
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
F. Dionisi
F. Dionisi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Hellas Verona P. Sammarco
P. Sammarco
VS
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
0.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 73 L
Parma Rank: 72 L
Pisa Rank: 65 D
Cagliari Rank: 71 L
Udinese Rank: 72 L
Cremonese Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cremonese Rank: 68 D
Napoli Rank: 86 L
Lazio Rank: 80 L
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Parma Rank: 72 D
Cagliari Rank: 71 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 8 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hellas Verona
28.12%
Draw
31.71%
Away Genoa
40.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.91
74.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hellas Verona
Genoa
Power Score
63.91
74.72
League Position
20
13
Global Rank
338
97

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hellas Verona — Opponent-weighted form score
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hellas Verona Genoa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hellas Verona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Genoa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hellas Verona ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genoa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.33
21.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.55
23.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hellas Verona +0.19 Efficiency Index
vs
Genoa -0.19 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hellas Verona
Genoa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hellas Verona
vs
Genoa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hellas Verona Genoa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hellas Verona Genoa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Hellas Verona
Genoa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hellas Verona VER Home
9 matches
Genoa GEN Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
10
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:51:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
L. Montipò
Italy
1 (C) L. Montipò
V. Nelsson
Denmark
15 V. Nelsson
A. Edmundsson
Faroe Islands
5 A. Edmundsson
N. Valentini
Argentina
6 N. Valentini
D. Oyegoke
Substitution
England
2 D. Oyegoke
J. Akpa Akpro
Ivory Coast
11 J. Akpa Akpro
R. Gagliardini
Italy
63 R. Gagliardini
A. Harroui
Substitution
Morocco
21 A. Harroui
M. Frese
Substitution
Denmark
3 M. Frese
K. Bowie
Scotland
18 K. Bowie
G. Orban
Substitution
Nigeria
16 G. Orban
J. Bijlow
Netherlands
16 J. Bijlow
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
22 (C) J. Vásquez Ibarra
L. Skiri Oestigaard
Norway
5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
A. Marcandalli
Italy
27 A. Marcandalli
S. Sabelli
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Sabelli
R. Malinovskiy
Substitution
Ukraine
17 R. Malinovskiy
M. Frendrup
Denmark
32 M. Frendrup
J. Messias
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. Messias
M. Ellertsson
Iceland
77 M. Ellertsson
C. Ekuban
Substitution
Ghana
18 C. Ekuban
L. Colombo
Substitution
Italy
29 L. Colombo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi
Capacity
39045
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matteo Marchetti
Marco Scatragli
Paolo Laudato
Federico Dionisi

Statistics

Possession
VER
44%
GEN
56%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
3 Shots 7
36 Dangerous attacks 30
42 Possession 58
4 Corners 2
9 Free kicks 22
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

64 Ball Safe 64
1 Hit Woodwork 0
17 Throwins 21
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
17 Dribble Attempts 11
24 Successful Headers 21
9 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Goal Attempts 5
3 Goal Kicks 6
4 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2
0 Assists 1

Attacking

78 Attacks 100

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 81
5 Key Passes 6
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
18 Successful Long Passes 27
232 Successful Passes 348
299 Passes 429
40 Long Passes 62

Defensive

16 Tackles 15
9 Interceptions 4
1 Saves 1

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 13
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

22 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

1
Lorenzo Montipò
Lorenzo Montipò (C) Goalkeeper
6.31
5
Andrias Edmundsson
Andrias Edmundsson Defender
6.84
6
Nicolás Valentini
Nicolás Valentini Defender
7.09
15
Victor Nelsson
Victor Nelsson Defender
6.45
2
Daniel Oyegoke
Daniel Oyegoke Midfielder
6.93
7
Rafik Belghali
Rafik Belghali
Defender46'
6.05
3
Martin Frese
Martin Frese Midfielder
6.48
9
Amin Sarr
Amin Sarr
Attacker80'
6.49
11
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro Midfielder
6.8
21
Abdou Harroui
Abdou Harroui Midfielder
6.68
10
Tomas Suslov
Tomas Suslov
Midfielder65'
6.43
63
Roberto Gagliardini
Roberto Gagliardini Midfielder
6.63
16
Gift Orban
Gift Orban Attacker
6.53
25
Daniel Mosquera
Daniel Mosquera
Attacker86'
18
Kieron Bowie
Kieron Bowie Attacker
6.67
Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
7.09
5
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Defender
7.97
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez (C) Defender
7.04
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Defender
6.72
10
Junior Messias
Junior Messias Midfielder
6.74
3
Aarón Martín
Aarón Martín
Defender78'
6.81
17
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Ruslan Malinovskyi Midfielder
7.13
4
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Midfielder71'
6.36
20
Stefano Sabelli
Stefano Sabelli Midfielder
6.54
15
Brooke Norton-Cuffy
Brooke Norton-Cuffy
Defender59'
6.71
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Midfielder
7.21
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Midfielder
6.71
18
Caleb Ekuban
Caleb Ekuban Attacker
6.7
9
Vitinha
Vitinha
Attacker59'
6.88
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo Attacker
6.71
21
Jeff Ekhator
Jeff Ekhator
Attacker79'
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Daniel Mosquera → Gift Orban
9th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
Leo Østigård
Header / 2nd Goal
81'
Event
Vitinha
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Amin Sarr → Martin Frese
8th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Jeff Ekhator → Lorenzo Colombo
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Aarón Martín → Junior Messias
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho → Ruslan Malinovskyi
5th Substitution
Event
Tomas Suslov → Abdou Harroui
4th Substitution
65'
61'
Event
Vitinha
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
59'
Event
Vitinha → Caleb Ekuban
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Brooke Norton-Cuffy → Stefano Sabelli
2nd Substitution
Event
Rafik Belghali → Daniel Oyegoke
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
31'
Event
Daniel Oyegoke
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
6'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Verona 0, Genoa 2.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Tomás Suslov from Verona takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick, but it sails over the goal.
90
Update Update
Tomás Suslov from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Rafik Belghali from Verona committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Rafik Belghali from Verona committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Brooke Norton-Cuffy from Genoa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Alex Amorim from Genoa committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Jeff Ekhator from Genoa attempts a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it’s blocked.
90
Update Update
Genoa is flagged for offside. Vítinha has been caught in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Brooke Norton-Cuffy from Genoa has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Kieron Bowie from Verona has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Verona 0, Genoa 2. Leo Østigård scores for Genoa with a header from the center of the penalty area.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Daniel Mosquera comes on to replace Gift Orban.
85
Update Update
Jeff Ekhator from Genoa earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
85
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini committed a foul against a player from Verona.
83
Update Update
Tomás Suslov from Verona committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Vítinha from Genoa has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
81
Update Update
Nicolás Valentini from Verona was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Vítinha commits a foul against Genoa.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vítinha from Genoa has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Amin Sarr replaces Martin Frese.
79
Update Update
Gift Orban committed a foul against Verona.
79
Update Update
Alessandro Marcandalli from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Jeff Ekhator replaces Lorenzo Colombo.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Aarón Martín replaces Junior Messias.
78
Update Update
Vítinha from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona committed a foul.
77
Update Update
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Update Update
Junior Messias commits a foul against Genoa.
76
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Gift Orban from Verona heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Rafik Belghali, who delivered a cross.
73
Update Update
Rafik Belghali from Verona committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Alex Amorim from Genoa was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
73
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Alex Amorim from Genoa earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
72
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Vítinha from Genoa fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after a foul by Andrias Edmundsson.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Alex Amorim replaces Ruslan Malinovskyi due to an injury.
70
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Nicolás Valentini from Verona attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner kick.
69
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini from Verona has been awarded a free kick on the left flank.
69
Update Update
Alessandro Marcandalli from Genoa committed a foul.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after Leo Østigård allowed the ball to go out.
68
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
67
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa.
65
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Tomás Suslov comes on to replace Abdou Harroui.
65
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Verona 0, Genoa 1. Vítinha from Genoa strikes with his right foot from outside the penalty area, sending the ball into the top center of the net.
59
Update Update
Kieron Bowie from Verona committed a foul.
59
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Brooke Norton-Cuffy comes on to replace Stefano Sabelli.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Vítinha replaces Caleb Ekuban.
57
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Ruslan Malinovskyi, who delivered a cross.
56
Update Update
Junior Messias from Genoa earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
56
Update Update
Junior Messias from Genoa was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
54
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Update Update
Gift Orban committed a foul against Verona.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after a play that resulted in a deflection off Stefano Sabelli.
52
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Stefano Sabelli from Genoa fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
50
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa has earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
50
Update Update
Abdou Harroui from Verona committed a foul.
49
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Abdou Harroui from Verona attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it narrowly went wide to the left.
49
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Gift Orban from Verona attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Martin Frese.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Verona. Abdou Harroui has been flagged for being offside.
45
Update Update
Junior Messias from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini committed a foul against a player from Verona.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Verona and Genoa.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Rafik Belghali replaces Daniel Oyegoke.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 0-0 between Verona and Genoa.
44
Update Update
Abdou Harroui from Verona commits a handball foul.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
43
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Daniel Oyegoke from Verona has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
39
Update Update
Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona committed a foul.
34
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Verona after Leo Østigård allowed the ball to go out.
34
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kieron Bowie from Verona takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro.
33
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Junior Messias from Genoa fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
31
Update Update
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Junior Messias from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
30
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play now.
29
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
29
Update Update
Daniel Oyegoke from Verona committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Caleb Ekuban from Genoa.
25
Update Update
Nicolás Valentini from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa committed a foul.
22
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
21
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Junior Messias from Genoa.
20
Update Update
Offside call against Verona. Martin Frese has been caught offside.
18
Update Update
Nicolás Valentini from Verona committed a foul.
18
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Verona after Morten Frendrup allowed the ball to go out.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after a foul by Roberto Gagliardini.
15
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Junior Messias from Genoa takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Ruslan Malinovskyi.
12
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Kieron Bowie from Verona takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Leo Østigård.
8
Update Update
Victor Nelsson committed a foul against a player from Verona.
8
Update Update
Caleb Ekuban from Genoa earned a free kick in an offensive position.
8
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push from Genoa. Caleb Ekuban takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it’s stopped by the goalkeeper, Lorenzo Montipò, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Junior Messias.
6
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniel Oyegoke from Verona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
6
Update Update
Stefano Sabelli from Genoa earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
6
Update Update
Daniel Oyegoke from Verona committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Caleb Ekuban from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Offside call against Verona. Kieron Bowie is caught in an offside position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Genoa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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