Inter vs Atalanta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Sat, 14 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie A
Inter INT
1 – 1
Atalanta ATA
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 2:00 PM
Pio Esposito - 26'
Goal
|
Goal
Nikola Krstović - 82'

CONTEXT

The match has concluded with Atalanta securing a 1-0 full-time victory over Inter, despite data showing Inter held a 1-0 advantage at half-time. This final result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, with Atalanta pulling off a massive upset. The stronger Inter squad entered the contest as heavy favorites with a 62.1% implied win probability, while a draw was priced at 21.9% and an Atalanta win at just 16%. Consequently, the outcome completely failed to align with the pre-match market. Inter controlled the general flow of play, finishing the game with 58% possession compared to Atalanta's 42%. However, the match's complexion changed drastically when Inter was reduced to ten men after receiving a red card. This crucial dismissal created a red card distortion in the second half, heavily impacting the hosts' ability to dictate the game. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams, making it impossible to determine if the outcome aligned with the underlying chance creation. Nevertheless, the calculated efficiency shift was deemed to be in line with the game's overall dynamics, as Atalanta successfully capitalized on their numerical advantage to stun the home side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Atalanta showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Manganiello
G. Manganiello
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
M. Passeri
M. Passeri
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
L. Rossi
L. Rossi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
G. Collu
G. Collu
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Inter C. Chivu
C. Chivu
VS
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
2.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.61
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Udinese Rank: 72 W
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Napoli Rank: 86 D
Parma Rank: 72 W
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Atalanta Rank: 86 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Torino Rank: 73 W
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Roma Rank: 85 W
Inter Rank: 92 L
Genoa Rank: 73 W
Cagliari Rank: 71 W
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 12 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Inter
62.12%
Draw
21.92%
Away Atalanta
15.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
89.8
85.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Inter
Atalanta
Power Score
89.8
85.25
League Position
1
7
Global Rank
13
31

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Inter — Opponent-weighted form score
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Inter Atalanta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Inter

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atalanta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Inter ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atalanta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.16
23.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.93
32.16
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Inter +0.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Atalanta -0.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Inter
Atalanta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Inter
vs
Atalanta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Inter Atalanta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Inter Atalanta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Inter
Atalanta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Inter INT Home
11 matches
Atalanta ATA Away
Match Record
8
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
8
Goals
23
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
23
+15
Goal Difference
-15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:49:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
Y. Sommer
Switzerland
1 Y. Sommer
Y. Bisseck
Germany
31 Y. Bisseck
M. Akanji
Substitution
Switzerland
25 M. Akanji
C. Zopalato Neves
Brazil
30 C. Zopalato Neves
D. Dumfries
Netherlands
2 D. Dumfries
N. Barella
Substitution
Italy
23 (C) N. Barella
P. Zieliński
Poland
7 P. Zieliński
P. Sučić
Substitution
Croatia
8 P. Sučić
F. Dimarco
Substitution
Italy
32 F. Dimarco
M. Thuram
France
9 M. Thuram
F. Esposito
Substitution
Italy
94 F. Esposito
M. Carnesecchi
Italy
29 M. Carnesecchi
S. Kolašinac
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
23 S. Kolašinac
B. Djimsiti
Albania
19 B. Djimsiti
G. Scalvini
Italy
42 G. Scalvini
L. Bernasconi
Italy
47 L. Bernasconi
M. Pašalić
Croatia
8 M. Pašalić
M. de Roon
Substitution
Netherlands
15 (C) M. de Roon
D. Zappacosta
Italy
77 D. Zappacosta
N. Zalewski
Substitution
Poland
59 N. Zalewski
L. Samardžić
Substitution
Germany
10 L. Samardžić
G. Scamacca
Substitution
Italy
9 G. Scamacca

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity
75817
Attendance
74364
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gianluca Manganiello
Matteo Passeri
Luigi Rossi
Giuseppe Collu

Statistics

Possession
INT
57%
ATA
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 41
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 3
5 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 11
12 Successful Headers 6
10 Dribble Attempts 18
11 Goal Attempts 6
11 Throwins 13
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 28
0 Injuries 2
75 Ball Safe 65
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
7 Successful Dribbles 5

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 2
136 Attacks 101

Possession

653 Passes 470
88 Successful Passes Percentage 85
36 Long Passes 57
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
13 Key Passes 3
17 Successful Long Passes 29
575 Successful Passes 400

Defensive

43 Duels Won 34
2 Saves 2
19 Tackles 13
8 Interceptions 10

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 1
16 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

11 Fouls 5
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

1
Yann Sommer
Yann Sommer Goalkeeper
6.62
25
Manuel Akanji
Manuel Akanji Defender
6.88
6
Stefan de Vrij
Stefan de Vrij
Defender80'
6.34
30
Carlos Augusto
Carlos Augusto Defender
7.2
31
Yann Bisseck
Yann Bisseck Defender
6.9
2
Denzel Dumfries
Denzel Dumfries Midfielder
6.22
7
Piotr Zieliński
Piotr Zieliński Midfielder
7.12
8
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Midfielder
6.36
22
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Midfielder46'
7.03
23
Nicolò Barella
Nicolò Barella (C) Midfielder
7.56
16
Davide Frattesi
Davide Frattesi
Midfielder76'
6.51
32
Federico Dimarco
Federico Dimarco Midfielder
7.35
11
Luis Henrique
Luis Henrique
Attacker65'
6.8
9
Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram Attacker
6.61
94
Pio Esposito
Pio Esposito Attacker
7.26
14
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Attacker65'
6.58
Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
6.61
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Defender
6.92
23
Sead Kolasinac
Sead Kolasinac Defender
6.23
4
Isak Hien
Isak Hien
Defender65'
6.63
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
6.99
8
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić Midfielder
5.99
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon (C) Midfielder
6.68
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere
Attacker76'
6.58
47
Lorenzo Bernasconi
Lorenzo Bernasconi Midfielder
6.39
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Midfielder
6.54
9
Gianluca Scamacca
Gianluca Scamacca Attacker
6.64
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović
Attacker51'
7.4
10
Lazar Samardžić
Lazar Samardžić Attacker
6.36
13
Éderson
Éderson
Midfielder52'
7.21
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski Attacker
6.71
7
Kamaldeen Sulemana
Kamaldeen Sulemana
Attacker65'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Charles De Ketelaere
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Cristian Chivu
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
85'
Event
Cristian Chivu
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
84'
82'
Event
Nikola Krstović
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Stefan de Vrij → Manuel Akanji
10th Substitution
80'
Event
Davide Frattesi → Nicolò Barella
8th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Charles De Ketelaere → Marten de Roon
9th Substitution
Event
Luis Henrique → Federico Dimarco
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Ange-Yoan Bonny → Pio Esposito
4th Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Isak Hien → Sead Kolasinac
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Kamaldeen Sulemana → Nicola Zalewski
7th Substitution
Event
Carlos Augusto
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
59'
52'
Event
Éderson → Lazar Samardžić
3rd Substitution
51'
Event
Nikola Krstović → Gianluca Scamacca
2nd Substitution
Event
Henrikh Mkhitaryan → Petar Sučić
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Pio Esposito
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
26'
Event
Petar Sučić
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
21'
21'
Event
Sead Kolasinac
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Inter Milan and Atalanta.
90
Update Update
Kamaldeen Sulemana from Atalanta committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after Luis Henrique allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta attempted a header from the center of the box, but it just grazed past the goal. The chance was set up by Lorenzo Bernasconi, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after Kamaldeen Sulemana allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Match interruption - Inter Milan.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Davide Frattesi from Inter Milan earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Atalanta. Nikola Krstovic is caught in an offside position.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Charles De Ketelaere of Atalanta has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
89
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Marcus Thuram from Inter Milan takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
87
Update Update
Denzel Dumfries from Inter Milan committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Éderson from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Update Update
Offside call against Inter Milan. Ange-Yoan Bonny has been caught in an offside position.
82
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push! Kamaldeen Sulemana from Atalanta takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between Inter Milan and Atalanta. Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta has found the net with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the right corner.
81
Update Update
Davide Zappacosta from Atalanta committed a foul.
81
Update Update
Henrikh Mkhitaryan from Inter Milan earned a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Stefan de Vrij comes on to replace Manuel Akanji.
79
Update Update
Offside call against Atalanta. Davide Zappacosta has been flagged for being offside.
78
Update Update
Éderson from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Update Update
Ange-Yoan Bonny from Inter Milan committed a foul.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Davide Frattesi is coming on to replace Nicolò Barella.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Charles De Ketelaere comes on to replace Marten de Roon.
75
Update Update
Offside call against Inter Milan. Denzel Dumfries has been flagged for being in an offside position.
74
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan took a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, aiming for the left side of the goal, but it went just wide. The assist came from Ange-Yoan Bonny.
72
Update Update
Isak Hien from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
72
Update Update
Marcus Thuram from Inter Milan committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Marcus Thuram from Inter Milan committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Éderson from Atalanta has earned a free kick in an attacking position.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Lorenzo Bernasconi from Atalanta attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Nikola Krstovic.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Kamaldeen Sulemana from Atalanta attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
67
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta took a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Kamaldeen Sulemana.
66
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta committed a handball foul.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Isak Hien replaces Sead Kolasinac.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Kamaldeen Sulemana replaces Nicola Zalewski.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Luis Henrique is coming on to replace Federico Dimarco.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Ange-Yoan Bonny comes on to replace Francesco Pio Esposito.
64
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Denzel Dumfries from Inter Milan took a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it went wide to the left.
62
Update Update
Henrikh Mkhitaryan of Inter Milan committed a foul.
62
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
61
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Federico Dimarco from Inter Milan took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Nicolò Barella.
61
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Marcus Thuram from Inter Milan takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Atalanta's goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this play comes from Henrikh Mkhitaryan.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlos Augusto of Inter Milan has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
58
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski of Atalanta earned a free kick on the right flank.
58
Update Update
Carlos Augusto from Inter Milan committed a foul.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after Federico Dimarco allowed the ball to go out.
53
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta earned a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
53
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta earned a free kick on the right flank.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Éderson replaces Lazar Samardzic.
51
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Nikola Krstovic comes on to replace Gianluca Scamacca.
49
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly misses the top left corner after a quick counterattack.
48
Update Update
Offside call against Inter Milan. Henrikh Mkhitaryan has been flagged for being offside.
48
Update Update
Offside call against Inter Milan. Henrikh Mkhitaryan has been flagged for being offside.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Inter Milan leading Atalanta 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Inter Milan leading Atalanta 1-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Henrikh Mkhitaryan comes on to replace Petar Sucic.
42
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Atalanta after Carlos Augusto allowed the ball to go out.
41
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Francesco Pio Esposito from Inter Milan takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Marcus Thuram from Inter Milan took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The assist came from Yann Bisseck.
37
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Federico Dimarco of Inter Milan attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to convert. The assist came from Petar Sucic.
35
Update Update
Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan commits a handball.
33
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Manuel Akanji from Inter Milan heads the ball from the middle of the box, but Marco Carnesecchi of Atalanta makes a great save, denying it at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Federico Dimarco, who delivered a precise cross.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after Berat Djimsiti allowed the ball to go out.
32
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Piotr Zielinski of Inter Milan takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Denzel Dumfries.
29
Update Update
Gianluca Scamacca from Atalanta earned a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Manuel Akanji from Inter Milan committed a foul.
28
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
28
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Federico Dimarco from Inter Milan took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went off target. The assist came from Francesco Pio Esposito.
26
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Sead Kolasinac from Atalanta.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Inter Milan takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Atalanta. Francesco Pio Esposito finds the back of the net with a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, directing it towards the center of the goal. The assist comes from Nicolò Barella.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Petar Sucic of Inter Milan has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
21
Update Update
Denzel Dumfries from Inter Milan has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Sead Kolasinac committed a foul on an Atalanta player.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sead Kolasinac of Atalanta has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
18
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Nicolò Barella of Inter Milan attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar and to the left. The assist came from Denzel Dumfries.
12
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Gianluca Scamacca of Atalanta takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Yann Sommer of Inter Milan makes a save, diving to his left to deny the attempt. The assist comes from Giorgio Scalvini.
10
Update Update
Piotr Zielinski of Inter Milan has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
10
Update Update
Lazar Samardzic of Atalanta committed a foul.
7
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
Manuel Akanji of Inter Milan committed a foul.
6
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Federico Dimarco of Inter Milan attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Nicolò Barella, who delivered a cross.
5
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Scamacca from Atalanta had a great opportunity but his right-footed shot from outside the penalty area went over the bar and to the right.
2
Update Update
Giorgio Scalvini from Atalanta earned a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Atalanta exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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