Napoli vs Torino Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Fri, 6 Mar - 7:45 PM
Serie A
Napoli NAP
2 Winner 1
Torino TOR
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 7:45 PM
Alisson Santos - 7'
Eljif Elmas - 68'
Goal
|
Goal
Cesare Casadei - 87'

CONTEXT

The match between Napoli and Torino has finished, with Napoli securing a 2-1 full-time victory over the visitors. The hosts established their advantage early, taking a 1-0 lead into the half-time break before closing out the win. This outcome was fully expected, as pre-match market forecasts gave Napoli a commanding 60.5% probability of winning, compared to a 24.1% chance for a draw and just 15.4% for a Torino upset. Ultimately, the result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, representing a significant deviation level of 39.5% in favor of Napoli. Napoli dictated the rhythm of the game, controlling 64% of the possession while restricting Torino to just 36% of the ball. Although expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to evaluate the specific quality of chances created, the overall efficiency shift remained strictly in line with expectations. Napoli recorded a positive efficiency rating of 1.4142, while Torino posted a mirrored -1.4142. The contest was played without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either side. Free from any unexpected numerical disadvantages, the stronger Napoli squad successfully converted their heavy possession and market-favorite status into a straightforward 2-1 triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Napoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Perri
M. Perri
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 1.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Bahri
K. Bahri
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 1.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Politi
M. Politi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 1.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Fabbri
M. Fabbri
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 1.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Napoli A. Conte
A. Conte
VS
Torino R. D'Aversa
R. D'Aversa
1.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: D
Inter Rank: D
Hellas Verona Rank: D
Lazio Rank: W
Cremonese Rank: W
Udinese Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: D
Lecce Rank: W
Como Rank: L
Roma Rank: L
Atalanta Rank: L
Udinese Rank: L
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 7 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Napoli
60.52%
Draw
24.13%
Away Torino
15.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.67
35.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Napoli
Torino
Power Score
66.67
35.71
League Position
3
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Napoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Torino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Napoli Torino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Napoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Torino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Napoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Torino
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.33
22.08
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.08
26.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Napoli +0.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Torino -0.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Napoli
Torino
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Napoli
vs
Torino
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Napoli Torino
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Napoli Torino
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Napoli
Torino
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Napoli NAP Home
11 matches
Torino TOR Away
Match Record
7
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
7
Goals
16
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
16
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:29:27+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Capacity
54726
Attendance
49000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mario Perri
Khaled Bahri
Mattia Politi
Michael Fabbri

Statistics

Possession
NAP
61%
TOR
39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 3
57 Dangerous attacks 19
64 Possession 36
11 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

19 Throwins 21
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
11 Successful Headers 5
14 Dribble Attempts 8
3 Goal Kicks 8
2 Assists 1
6 Successful Dribbles 2
5 Substitutions 5
69 Ball Safe 68
12 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

116 Attacks 65
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

43 Long Passes 63
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
542 Successful Passes 272
621 Passes 346
87 Successful Passes Percentage 79
15 Successful Long Passes 27
9 Key Passes 6

Defensive

10 Tackles 19
6 Interceptions 13
3 Saves 7
37 Duels Won 33

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 9
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Cesare Casadei
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Romelu Lukaku → Rasmus Højlund
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Pasquale Mazzocchi  → Matteo Politano 
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Kevin De Bruyne  → Alisson Santos
8th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Tino Anjorin → Matteo Prati
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Valentino Lazaro
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Miguel Gutiérrez → Leonardo Spinazzola
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Eljif Elmas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
68'
67'
Event
Sandro Kulenovic → Giovanni Simeone
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Cesare Casadei → Gvidas Gineitis
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Ardian Ismajli
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Gvidas Gineitis
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
57'
Event
Marcus Pedersen → Rafa Obrador
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Ché Adams → Duván Zapata
2nd Substitution
Event
Frank Anguissa  → Antonio Vergara
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Alisson Santos
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Kevin De Bruyne of Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Cesare Casadei from Torino committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Napoli securing a 2-1 victory over Torino.
90
Update Update
Cesare Casadei from Torino committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Kevin De Bruyne from Napoli attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after a deflection off Ardian Ismajli.
88
Update Update
Nikola Vlasic from Torino committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Mathías Olivera from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Torino after Juan Jesus allowed the ball to go out.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Napoli leads 2-1 against Torino. Cesare Casadei scores for Torino with a header from the center of the box, directing it into the left corner of the net. The assist came from Ché Adams following a corner kick.
86
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Tino Anjorin from Torino takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Vanja Milinkovic-Savic from Napoli makes a great save, denying the attempt in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Valentino Lazaro.
86
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nikola Vlasic from Torino takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Sandro Kulenovic.
85
Update Update
Mathías Olivera from Napoli commits a handball.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Romelu Lukaku replaces Rasmus Højlund.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Pasquale Mazzocchi comes on to replace Matteo Politano.
83
Update Update
Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
83
Update Update
Saúl Coco from Torino committed a foul.
82
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli after Marcus Pedersen allowed the ball to go out of play.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after a play that resulted in a save by Alberto Paleari.
82
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Matteo Politano from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Alberto Paleari of Torino makes a great save, diving to his right to deny the attempt.
81
Update Update
Matteo Politano from Napoli was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
81
Update Update
Ché Adams from Torino committed a foul.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Kevin De Bruyne comes on to replace Alisson Santos.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Torino: Tino Anjorin comes on to replace Matteo Prati.
74
Update Update
Offside call against Torino. Ché Adams has been flagged for being offside.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Valentino Lazaro of Torino has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
73
Update Update
Valentino Lazaro from Torino committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Matteo Politano from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
72
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Billy Gilmour from Napoli takes a right-footed shot from over 35 yards out, but it's successfully stopped.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Miguel Gutiérrez comes on to replace Leonardo Spinazzola.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Napoli leads Torino 2-0. Eljif Elmas scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the left corner of the net. The assist comes from Matteo Politano, who set him up with a header.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Torino: Cesare Casadei comes on to replace Gvidas Gineitis.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Torino: Sandro Kulenovic comes on to replace Giovanni Simeone.
67
Update Update
Juan Jesus from Napoli committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Ché Adams from Torino was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Marcus Pedersen allowed it to go out.
65
Attempt Attempt
A missed opportunity! Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but couldn't convert.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ardian Ismajli from Torino has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
64
Update Update
Rasmus Højlund from Napoli earned a free kick in an attacking position.
64
Update Update
Ardian Ismajli from Torino committed a foul.
63
Update Update
Frank Anguissa from Napoli earned a free kick in an offensive position.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gvidas Gineitis from Torino has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
63
Update Update
Gvidas Gineitis from Torino committed a foul.
60
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Alisson Santos from Napoli takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
58
Update Update
Rasmus Højlund committed a foul against Napoli.
58
Update Update
Ardian Ismajli from Torino has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Torino: Ché Adams replaces Duván Zapata.
57
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
57
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
56
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Alisson Santos from Napoli.
55
Update Update
Duván Zapata from Torino committed a handball violation.
53
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli after a play that resulted in a deflection off Alberto Paleari.
53
Update Update
Frank Anguissa from Napoli committed a foul.
53
Update Update
Alberto Paleari from Torino has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after a deflection off Alberto Paleari.
51
Update Update
Offside call against Napoli. Rasmus Højlund has been flagged for being offside.
49
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds. Alisson Santos from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
49
Update Update
Juan Jesus from Napoli committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Duván Zapata of Torino has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
46
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Eljif Elmas from Napoli takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Enzo Ebosse allowed the ball to go out of play.
45
Update Update
Valentino Lazaro from Torino earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Napoli leading Torino 1-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Frank Anguissa comes on to replace Antonio Vergara due to an injury.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Frank Anguissa comes on to replace Antonio Vergara due to an injury.
40
Update Update
Nikola Vlasic from Torino earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
40
Update Update
Mathías Olivera from Napoli committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Giovanni Simeone from Torino committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Billy Gilmour commits a foul against Napoli.
37
Update Update
Matteo Prati from Torino has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Antonio Vergara from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
36
Update Update
Enzo Ebosse from Torino committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Rasmus Højlund of Napoli heads the ball from the center of the box, but it narrowly misses the target. The assist came from Matteo Politano, who delivered a precise cross.
33
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli after a deflection by Saúl Coco.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after a play that resulted in a deflection off Saúl Coco.
25
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Rasmus Højlund from Napoli attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
21
Update Update
Nikola Vlasic from Torino has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Antonio Vergara from Napoli committed a foul.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Gvidas Gineitis allowed the ball to go out.
19
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Nikola Vlasic from Torino takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Vanja Milinkovic-Savic from Napoli makes a save, diving to his left to stop the ball.
17
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Nikola Vlasic from Torino takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Vanja Milinkovic-Savic from Napoli makes a save, diving to his left to deny the attempt.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Torino after a deflection off Mathías Olivera.
16
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Duván Zapata from Torino takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Gvidas Gineitis.
11
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Nikola Vlasic from Torino takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, the Napoli goalkeeper, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal. The assist for this play comes from Giovanni Simeone.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after a play that resulted in a save by Alberto Paleari.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Napoli takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Torino. Alisson Santos scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, placing it perfectly into the left corner of the net. The assist comes from Leonardo Spinazzola following a corner kick.
7
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Mathías Olivera from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from close range, but it’s expertly denied by Torino's goalkeeper, Alberto Paleari, who makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Valentino Lazaro allowed the ball to go out.
5
Corner Corner
Another offensive push from Napoli! Matteo Politano takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's expertly saved in the bottom right corner by Alberto Paleari from Torino. The assist came from Rasmus Højlund.
2
Update Update
Billy Gilmour committed a foul for Napoli.
2
Update Update
Duván Zapata of Torino has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Napoli exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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