Empoli vs Mantova Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Sat, 14 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Empoli
EMP
2
–
2
Mantova
MAN
Full Time
Sat, 14 Mar
2:00 PM
Stiven Shpendi - 50'
Edoardo Saporiti - 84'
|
Davide Bragantini - 21'
Stefano Cella - 37'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
The match between Empoli and Mantova has finished, with Empoli securing a 2-0 victory at full-time. Coming into the fixture as the stronger team, the hosts held a 45.8% pre-match win probability, compared to Mantova's 26.7% and a 27.6% chance of a draw. Ultimately, the home victory meant the final outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market expectations. Empoli controlled the flow of the game, holding a solid 59% possession over Mantova's 41%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both sides, meaning an alignment between the actual outcome and underlying xG metrics could not be determined. Additionally, the match proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card. Despite the expected victory, the result represented a significant deviation level in favor of Empoli. The match's efficiency shift was entirely in line with projections; Empoli registered a slight negative efficiency mark (-0.1067), while Mantova sat at a positive 0.1067. In the end, the favored home side successfully leveraged their territorial control and possession advantage to secure a comfortable clean-sheet win.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Empoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Marcenaro
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
A. Zanotti
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
D. Santarossa
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
M. Ceolin
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
F. Caserta
VS
F. Modesto
1.13
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.96
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone
Rank: 65
D
Reggiana
Rank: 50
D
Juve Stabia
Rank: 57
L
Palermo
Rank: 64
L
Modena
Rank: 59
D
Carrarese
Rank: 53
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese
Rank: 52
D
Sampdoria
Rank: 54
W
Catanzaro
Rank: 60
L
Reggiana
Rank: 50
L
Bari 1908
Rank: 49
W
Pescara
Rank: 43
D
2
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 0
0
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Empoli
45.76%
Draw
27.59%
Mantova
26.65%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.32
50.21
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Empoli
Mantova
Power Score
52.32
50.21
League Position
13
15
Global Rank
605
729
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Empoli
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Mantova
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Empoli Mantova
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Empoli
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Mantova
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Empoli
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Mantova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.98
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Empoli
-0.11
Efficiency Index
vs
Mantova
+0.11
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Empoli
Mantova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Empoli
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Mantova
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Empoli
Mantova
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Empoli
Mantova
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Empoli
Mantova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Empoli
EMP
Home
1
matches
Mantova
MAN
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:52:37+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-4-1-1
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
21 A. Fulignati
T. Ebuehi
#2472'
26 A. Candela
34 G. Guarino
20 (C) M. Lovato
B. Moruzzi
#2746'
5 N. Obaretin
E. Saporiti
#7072'
15 J. Ceesay
N. Haas
#3280'
8 L. Magnino
14 G. Yepes Laut
7 S. Elia
M. Nasti
#1946'
10 R. Ilie
11 S. Shpendi
24 F. Bardi
27 A. Castellini
29 S. Cella
13 A. Meroni
T. Maggioni
#9688'
17 N. Radaelli
80 R. Kouda
21 S. Trimboli
T. Silva Gonçalves
#1546'
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
M. Caprini
#2857'
77 N. Buso
T. Marras
#2357'
30 D. Bragantini
D. Wieser
#1067'
9 (C) L. Mancuso
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Capacity
16284
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Matteo Marcenaro
Andrea Zanotti
Davide Santarossa
Marco Ceolin
Statistics
Possession
EMP
56%
MAN
44%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
2
4
Big Chances Created
1
8
Shots
5
51
Dangerous attacks
35
59
Possession
41
9
Corners
4
17
Free kicks
17
3
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
10
Goal Attempts
9
26
Throwins
18
5
Successful Dribbles
6
12
Dribble Attempts
11
0
Injuries
1
2
Assists
1
8
Goal Kicks
7
42
Successful Dribbles Percentage
55
66
Ball Safe
67
5
Substitutions
5
Attacking
98
Attacks
105
2
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
15
Key Passes
9
368
Successful Passes
242
79
Successful Passes Percentage
72
63
Long Passes
64
464
Passes
338
30
Successful Long Passes
21
48
Successful Long Passes Percentage
33
Defensive
17
Tackles
16
8
Interceptions
16
3
Saves
5
Build-up
13
Accurate Crosses
5
35
Total Crosses
12
Discipline
13
Fouls
13
3
Offsides
2
Lineup
Referee :
Matteo Marcenaro
Manager ▼
F. Caserta
Coach
Starting XI ▼
21
Andrea Fulignati
Goalkeeper
6.73 5
Nosa Edward Obaretin
Defender
6.68 27Brando Moruzzi
6.55Defender46'
20
Matteo Lovato (C)
Defender
6.71 26
Antonio Candela
Defender
5.94 24Tyronne Ebuehi
6.66Defender72'
34
Gabriele Guarino
Defender
6.63 7
Salvatore Elia
Midfielder
8.59 8
Luca Magnino
Midfielder
6.31
32Nicolas Haas
6.48Midfielder80'
14
Gerard Yepes
Midfielder
7.55 15
Joseph Ceesay
Midfielder
6.52 70Edoardo Saporiti
Midfielder72'
10
Rareș Ilie
Attacker
6.64
19Marco Nasti
Attacker46'
6.79
11
Stiven Shpendi
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
1
Samuele Perisan
Goalkeeper
2
Marco Curto
Defender
4
Simone Romagnoli
Defender
6
Duccio Degli Innocenti
Midfielder
25
Lorenzo Ignacchiti
Midfielder
17
Daniel Fila
Attacker
77
Bogdan Popov
Attacker
Referee :
Matteo Marcenaro
Manager ▼
F. Modesto
Coach
Starting XI ▼
24
Francesco Bardi
Goalkeeper
6.81
13
Andrea Meroni
Defender
7.67 27
Alessio Castellini
Defender
6.96 29
Stefano Cella
Defender
17
Nicolò Radaelli
Midfielder
6.79 96Tommaso Maggioni
Defender88'
21
Simone Trimboli
Midfielder
6.75 50
Fahem Benaïssa
Midfielder
6.92 15Tiago Gonçalves
6.89Defender46'
80
Rachid Kouda
Midfielder
7.26 9
Leonardo Mancuso (C)
Attacker
6.34 10David Wieser
6.44Midfielder67'
30
Davide Bragantini
Attacker
23Tommaso Marras
6.45Attacker57'
77
Nicolò Buso
Attacker
6.77 28Maat Daniel Caprini
6.46Attacker57'
Substitutes ▼
34
Ante Vukovic
Goalkeeper
3
Ali Dembélé
Defender
5
Konstantinos Chrysopoulos
Defender
20
Junior Ligue
Defender
18
César Falletti
Midfielder
36
Flavio Paoletti
Midfielder
7
Davis Mensah
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Marco Nasti
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
88'
Tommaso Maggioni → Nicolò Radaelli
10th Substitution
Edoardo Saporiti
Header / 4th Goal
84'
84'
Francesco Bardi
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Nicolas Haas → Luca Magnino
9th Substitution
80'
Edoardo Saporiti → Joseph Ceesay
8th Substitution
72'
Tyronne Ebuehi → Antonio Candela
7th Substitution
72'
67'
David Wieser → Leonardo Mancuso
6th Substitution
57'
Tommaso Marras → Davide Bragantini
5th Substitution
57'
Maat Daniel Caprini → Nicolò Buso
4th Substitution
Stiven Shpendi
Header / 3rd Goal
50'
49'
Davide Bragantini
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Brando Moruzzi → Nosa Edward Obaretin
2nd Substitution
46'
Marco Nasti → Rareș Ilie
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Tiago Gonçalves → Fahem Benaïssa
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Rareș Ilie
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+1'
Luca Magnino
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
44'
37'
Stefano Cella
Header / 2nd Goal
21'
Davide Bragantini
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Empoli exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.