Bari 1908 vs Reggiana Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale San Nicola
Sat, 14 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Bari 1908
BAR
4
1
1
Reggiana
Reggiana
Full Time
Sat, 14 Mar
2:00 PM
Federico Artioli - 10'
Emanuele Rao - 15', 48'
Gabriele Moncini - 57'
|
Mateus Lusuardi - 89'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
The match between Bari 1908 and Reggiana has finished, with Bari 1908 securing a 2-1 victory at full-time. The hosts laid the groundwork early, taking a comfortable 2-0 lead into the half-time break before Reggiana pulled one back in the second half. The final outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which originally favored Bari 1908 with a 42.5% win probability, compared to Reggiana's 27% chance and a 30.5% likelihood of a draw. Despite this market alignment, the result represented a significant deviation of 57.5% in favor of Bari 1908, reinforcing their status as the stronger team entering the contest. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift was in line with expectations, as Bari successfully translated their pre-match advantage into a tangible victory. On the pitch, the game was remarkably balanced in terms of control, with both sides sharing exactly 50% possession. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, so a definitive assessment of whether the outcome was consistent with chance creation cannot be determined. Finally, the match concluded without any red cards for either side, meaning disciplinary events did not artificially impact the final 2-1 scoreline.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Bari 1908 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Pairetto
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
A. Arena
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
F. Luciani
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
S. Biffi
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
M. Longo
VS
L. Rubinacci
1.08
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli
Rank: 57
W
Sampdoria
Rank: 54
W
Calcio Padova
Rank: 50
D
Südtirol
Rank: 57
L
Spezia
Rank: 53
D
Mantova
Rank: 48
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol
Rank: 56
L
Spezia
Rank: 53
W
Avellino
Rank: 50
D
Empoli
Rank: 57
D
Mantova
Rank: 48
W
Catanzaro
Rank: 60
L
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 2
2
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Bari 1908
42.45%
Draw
30.52%
Reggiana
27.03%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.31
47.58
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bari 1908
Reggiana
Power Score
50.31
47.58
League Position
17
19
Global Rank
726
815
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Bari 1908
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Reggiana
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Bari 1908 Reggiana
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Bari 1908
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Reggiana
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Bari 1908
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Reggiana
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.30
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Bari 1908
-0.31
Efficiency Index
vs
Reggiana
+0.31
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Reggiana
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Bari 1908
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Reggiana
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Bari 1908
Reggiana
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Bari 1908
Reggiana
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Reggiana
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Bari 1908
BAR
Home
5
matches
Reggiana
Reggiana
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
3
Draws
3
2
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
4
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:51:44+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
Match Formation
3-5-2
31 M. Cerofolini
51 A. Cistana
26 C. Odenthal
13 (C) V. Mantovani
B. Manè
#3077'
24 L. Dickmann
18 G. Maggiore
M. Braunöder
#2760'
80 F. Artioli
93 E. Dorval
N. Cavuoti
#2065'
19 T. Pontes Esteves
2
R. Pagano
#860'
17 E. Rao
C. Gytkjær
#977'
11 G. Moncini
1 A. Micai
43 S. Bonetti
M. Vanelli Lusuardi
#4767'
14 D. Quaranta
2 A. Papetti
K. Bozhanaj
#1046'
33 A. Tripaldelli
90 (C) M. Portanova
C. Lima Pontes
#867'
16 T. Reinhart
26 M. Bertagnoli
23 M. Rover
T. Fumagalli
#7767'
9 A. Novakovich
L. Mendicino
#4480'
80 N. Girma
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Comunale San Nicola
Capacity
58300
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luca Pairetto
Alberto Arena
Francesco Luciani
Simone Biffi
Statistics
Possession
BAR
52%
Reggiana
48%
Top Statistics
4
Goals
1
1
Big Chances Created
2
11
Shots
12
32
Dangerous attacks
43
50
Possession
50
3
Corners
8
18
Free kicks
11
2
Yellow Cards
4
Match Overview
14
Dribble Attempts
8
11
Goal Kicks
4
7
Successful Dribbles
3
50
Successful Dribbles Percentage
38
75
Ball Safe
62
5
Substitutions
5
3
Assists
1
7
Goal Attempts
11
18
Throwins
24
Attacking
94
Attacks
82
0
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
85
Successful Passes Percentage
82
24
Successful Long Passes
14
53
Successful Long Passes Percentage
45
341
Successful Passes
317
401
Passes
386
45
Long Passes
31
9
Key Passes
8
Defensive
11
Interceptions
5
5
Tackles
13
1
Saves
1
Build-up
4
Accurate Crosses
6
11
Total Crosses
23
Discipline
9
Fouls
15
1
Offsides
3
Lineup
Referee :
Luca Pairetto
Manager ▼
M. Longo
Coach
Starting XI ▼
31
Michele Cerofolini
Goalkeeper
6.48 13
Valerio Mantovani (C)
Defender
6.6 26
Cas Odenthal
Defender
6.96 51
Andrea Cistana
Defender
6.93 18
Giulio Maggiore
Midfielder
7.16
24
Lorenzo Dickmann
Midfielder
6.76 30Moussa Mané
6.26Defender77'
80
Federico Artioli
Midfielder
27Matthias Braunöder
6.28Midfielder60'
93
Mehdi Dorval
Midfielder
6.51 11
Gabriele Moncini
Attacker
9Christian Gytkjaer
6.63Attacker77'
17
Emanuele Rao
Attacker
2
9.02 8Riccardo Pagano
6.66Midfielder60'
19
Tomás Esteves
Attacker
6.55 20Nicolò Cavuoti
6.69Midfielder65'
Substitutes ▼
1
Marco Pissardo
Goalkeeper
25
Raffaele Pucino
Defender
43
Dimitrios Nikolaou
Defender
10
Nicola Bellomo
Midfielder
49
Giacomo De Pieri
Midfielder
66
Daouda Traore
Midfielder
28
Kevin Piscopo
Attacker
Referee :
Luca Pairetto
Manager ▼
L. Rubinacci
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Alessandro Micai
Goalkeeper
5.64 2
Andrea Papetti
Defender
6.61 14
Danilo Quaranta
Defender
5.78
47Mateus Lusuardi
Defender67'
43
Simone Bonetti
Defender
5.82 16
Tobías Reinhart
Midfielder
6.5 8Charlys
Midfielder67'
6.75
23
Matteo Rover
Midfielder
6.74 26
Massimo Bertagnoli
Midfielder
6.9 33
Alessandro Tripaldelli
Midfielder
6.48 10Kleis Bozhanaj
Midfielder46'
6.6
90
Manolo Portanova (C)
Midfielder
6.21 9
Andrija Novakovich
Attacker
6.18 77Tommaso Fumagalli
6.8Attacker67'
80
Natan Girma
Attacker
6.61
44Leonardo Mendicino
6.53Midfielder80'
Substitutes ▼
12
Andrea Seculin
Goalkeeper
45
Matteo Cardinali
Goalkeeper
17
Lorenzo Libutti
Defender
6
Francesco Vallarelli
Midfielder
66
Pietro Pinelli
Midfielder
93
Mathis Lambourde
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
89'
Mateus Lusuardi
Header / 5th Goal
86'
7th Yellowcard
86'
Kleis Bozhanaj
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
80'
Leonardo Mendicino → Natan Girma
10th Substitution
Christian Gytkjaer → Gabriele Moncini
8th Substitution
77'
Moussa Mané → Lorenzo Dickmann
9th Substitution
77'
70'
Charlys
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
67'
Charlys → Tobías Reinhart
5th Substitution
67'
Tommaso Fumagalli → Andrija Novakovich
6th Substitution
67'
Mateus Lusuardi → Danilo Quaranta
7th Substitution
Nicolò Cavuoti → Tomás Esteves
4th Substitution
65'
Riccardo Pagano → Emanuele Rao
3rd Substitution
60'
Matthias Braunöder → Federico Artioli
2nd Substitution
60'
Gabriele Moncini
Header / 4th Goal
57'
49'
Natan Girma
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Emanuele Rao
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
48'
46'
Kleis Bozhanaj → Alessandro Tripaldelli
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Giulio Maggiore
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
42'
18'
Danilo Quaranta
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Federico Artioli
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
16'
Emanuele Rao
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
15'
Federico Artioli
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
10'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Bari 1908 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.