Südtirol vs Pescara Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Marco Druso Sun, 15 Mar - 4:15 PM
Serie B
Südtirol SUD
0 – 0
Pescara PES
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 4:15 PM
Fabian Tait 77' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Südtirol 0–0 Pescara. The match ended in a draw. Südtirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 35%–65%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Südtirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Emmanuele
M. Emmanuele
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.78
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. Di Marco
D. Di Marco
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.78
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
C. Allegretta
C. Allegretta
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.78
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
I. Catallo
I. Catallo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.78
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
VS
Pescara G. Gorgone
G. Gorgone
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.84
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: 51 W
Venezia Rank: 69 D
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 W
Monza Rank: 65 D
Carrarese Rank: 53 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: 64 D
Palermo Rank: 64 W
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Avellino Rank: 50 W
Catanzaro Rank: 60 L
Cesena Rank: 54 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Südtirol
50.58%
Draw
26.66%
Away Pescara
22.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.05
46.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Südtirol
Pescara
Power Score
56.05
46.39
League Position
9
20
Global Rank
573
842

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Pescara — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Pescara

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pescara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.00
29.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.46
17.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Südtirol -1.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Pescara +1.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Pescara
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Südtirol Pescara
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Südtirol Pescara
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Pescara
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home
1 matches
Pescara PES Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:39:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
H. El Kaouakibi
Morocco
94 H. El Kaouakibi
R. Kofler
Italy
28 R. Kofler
F. Veseli
Albania
34 F. Veseli
F. Davi
Italy
23 F. Davi
F. Tait
Italy
21 (C) F. Tait
S. Tronchin
Substitution
Italy
18 S. Tronchin
D. Casiraghi
Substitution
Italy
17 D. Casiraghi
K. Zedadka
Substitution
France
7 K. Zedadka
S. Verdi
Substitution
Italy
99 S. Verdi
S. Merkaj
Substitution
Albania
33 S. Merkaj
I. Saio
Italy
22 I. Saio
A. Cagnano
Italy
32 A. Cagnano
D. Bettella
Italy
6 D. Bettella
R. Capellini
Italy
2 R. Capellini
A. Gravillon
Substitution
Guadeloupe
26 A. Gravillon
L. Berardi
Substitution
36 L. Berardi
G. Brugman
Uruguay
8 G. Brugman
L. Valzania
Substitution
Italy
14 L. Valzania
L. Insigne
Substitution
Italy
11 (C) L. Insigne
A. Di Nardo
Italy
9 A. Di Nardo
G. Acampora
Substitution
Italy
13 G. Acampora

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Marco Druso
Capacity
5539
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Emmanuele
Davide Di Marco
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Ivan Catallo

Statistics

Possession
SUD
39%
PES
61%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 11
39 Dangerous attacks 43
35 Possession 65
3 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 17
5 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Goal Kicks 5
18 Dribble Attempts 12
3 Goal Attempts 8
5 Successful Dribbles 6
28 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
75 Ball Safe 70
29 Throwins 28
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

81 Attacks 85
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

129 Successful Passes 328
55 Successful Passes Percentage 76
25 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
235 Passes 434
15 Successful Long Passes 24
59 Long Passes 67
3 Key Passes 11

Defensive

3 Saves 1
6 Interceptions 4
14 Tackles 17

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 21
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

18 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
7.14
28
Raphael Kofler
Raphael Kofler Defender
7.38
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
6.81
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi Defender
6.92
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka Midfielder
6.51
5
Andrea Masiello
Andrea Masiello
Defender85'
6.34
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi Midfielder
5.91
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio
Midfielder78'
6.45
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Midfielder
6.74
6
Jacopo Martini
Jacopo Martini
Midfielder82'
6.59
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait (C) Midfielder
6.74
23
Federico Davi
Federico Davi Midfielder
7.15
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
6.23
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj
Midfielder82'
6.5
99
Simone Verdi
Simone Verdi Attacker
6.85
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino
Attacker46'
6.84
Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

22
Ivan Saio
Ivan Saio Goalkeeper
6.73
2
Riccardo Capellini
Riccardo Capellini Defender
7.3
6
Davide Bettella
Davide Bettella Defender
7.01
26
Andreaw Gravillon
Andreaw Gravillon Defender
6.76
3
Gaetano Letizia
Gaetano Letizia
Defender72'
6.86
32
Andrea Cagnano
Andrea Cagnano Defender
7.11
8
Gastón Brugman
Gastón Brugman Midfielder
6.85
14
Luca Valzania
Luca Valzania Midfielder
6.75
21
Fabrizio Caligara
Fabrizio Caligara
Midfielder67'
6.83
36
Lorenzo Berardi
Lorenzo Berardi Midfielder
6.76
18
Lamine Dabo
Lamine Dabo
Midfielder72'
6.56
9
Antonio Di Nardo
Antonio Di Nardo Attacker
6.43
11
Lorenzo Insigne
Lorenzo Insigne (C) Attacker
6.66
27
Giacomo Olzer
Giacomo Olzer
Midfielder67'
6.43
13
Gennaro Acampora
Gennaro Acampora Attacker
7.33
7
Lorenzo Meazzi
Lorenzo Meazzi
Attacker81'
6.52

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andrea Masiello
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Andrea Masiello → Karim Zedadka
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Emanuele Pecorino
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Jacopo Martini → Simone Tronchin
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Domen Črnigoj → Silvio Merkaj
8th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Lorenzo Meazzi → Gennaro Acampora
7th Substitution
Event
Marco Frigerio → Daniele Casiraghi
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Fabian Tait
Foul / 1st Redcard
77'
Event
Frédéric Veseli
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Fabian Tait
Card adjusted
76'
72'
Event
Lamine Dabo → Lorenzo Berardi
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Gaetano Letizia → Andreaw Gravillon
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Fabrizio Caligara → Luca Valzania
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Giacomo Olzer → Lorenzo Insigne
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Luca Valzania
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Karim Zedadka
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Emanuele Pecorino → Simone Verdi
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Daniele Casiraghi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Südtirol exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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