Cesena vs Frosinone Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi Sat, 14 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Cesena CES
2 – 2
Frosinone FRO
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 2:00 PM
Tommaso Corazza - 59', 79'
Goal
|
Goal
Niccolò Corrado - 40'
Farès Ghedjemis - 72'

CONTEXT

The match between Cesena and Frosinone has finished with a full-time score of 2-2. Frosinone entered the half-time break holding a narrow 1-0 lead, but Cesena fought back in the second period to force a share of the points. Before kickoff, Frosinone was viewed as the stronger team. The pre-match market gave them a 39.7% chance of victory, compared to a 34% chance for Cesena and a 26.3% probability of a draw. Because the match ended in a tie, the final outcome did not align with the market's primary expectation. This resulted in a significant deviation of 73.7%, with Frosinone being the team that fell short of pre-game projections. Statistically, the game was tightly contested. Frosinone maintained a slight edge in possession with 52%, leaving Cesena with 48% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the final draw was consistent with the overall quality of chances created. The flow of the game was not impacted by dismissals, as neither side received a red card. Ultimately, the match's efficiency shift remained in line with overall statistical expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Frosinone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Di Gioia
V. Di Gioia
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
L. Massimi
L. Massimi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Gilberto Laghezza
Gilberto Laghezza
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
R. Lovison
R. Lovison
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Cesena M. Mignani
M. Mignani
VS
Frosinone M. Alvini
M. Alvini
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monza Rank: 65 L
Empoli Rank: 57 D
Spezia Rank: 53 L
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 L
Pescara Rank: 43 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Empoli Rank: 57 D
Spezia Rank: 53 W
Avellino Rank: 50 W
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cesena
34.01%
Draw
26.33%
Away Frosinone
39.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.51
64.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cesena
Frosinone
Power Score
53.51
64.02
League Position
8
3
Global Rank
646
335

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cesena Frosinone

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Frosinone
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.21
52.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
52.31
35.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cesena -1.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Frosinone +1.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Frosinone
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Frosinone
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cesena Frosinone
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cesena Frosinone
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Frosinone
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cesena CES Home
3 matches
Frosinone FRO Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
4
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:55:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Klinsmann
United States
33 J. Klinsmann
A. Ciofi
Substitution
Italy
15 (C) A. Ciofi
G. Zaro
Italy
19 G. Zaro
M. Piacentini
Italy
26 M. Piacentini
R. Ciervo
Italy
11 R. Ciervo
T. Berti
Substitution
Italy
14 T. Berti
M. Castagnetti
Italy
4 M. Castagnetti
D. Bisoli
Substitution
Italy
25 D. Bisoli
M. Guidi
San Marino
18 M. Guidi
A. Cerri
Italy
7 A. Cerri
C. Shpendi
Substitution
Albania
9 C. Shpendi
L. Palmisani
Italy
22 L. Palmisani
N. Corrado
Italy
19 N. Corrado
J. Gelli
Italy
6 J. Gelli
G. Calvani
Italy
3 G. Calvani
A. Oyono Omva Torque
Substitution
France
20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
M. Cichella
Substitution
Italy
16 M. Cichella
G. Calò
Italy
14 (C) G. Calò
I. Koutsoupias
Substitution
Greece
8 I. Koutsoupias
G. Kvernadze
Substitution
Georgia
17 G. Kvernadze
A. Raimondo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Raimondo
F. Ghedjemis
France
7 F. Ghedjemis

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi
Capacity
20194
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vittorio Di Gioia
Luca Massimi
Gilberto Laghezza
Roberto Lovison

Statistics

Possession
CES
49%
FRO
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
7 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 7
38 Dangerous attacks 64
48 Possession 52
1 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 1
6 Successful Dribbles 6
13 Goal Attempts 19
91 Ball Safe 77
14 Dribble Attempts 18
2 Assists 2
14 Goal Kicks 7
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
1 Penalties 0
1 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5
15 Throwins 14

Attacking

79 Attacks 97
7 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 82
68 Long Passes 47
356 Passes 368
10 Key Passes 20
34 Successful Long Passes 14
281 Successful Passes 300
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30

Defensive

3 Interceptions 6
5 Saves 4
18 Tackles 11

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 22
2 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Luca Massimi

Starting XI ▼

33
Jonathan Klinsmann
Jonathan Klinsmann Goalkeeper
7.17
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi (C) Defender
6.52
16
Peter Amoran
Peter Amoran
Defender73'
6.34
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
6.66
26
Matteo Piacentini
Matteo Piacentini Defender
6.62
4
Michele Castagnetti
Michele Castagnetti Midfielder
7.32
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo Midfielder
6.49
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
7.2
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni
Attacker85'
6.47
18
Matteo Guidi
Matteo Guidi Midfielder
6.6
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder
6.43
10
Simone Bastoni
Simone Bastoni
Midfielder73'
6.58
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Attacker
7.57
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Attacker
6.04
70
Matteo Francesconi
Matteo Francesconi
Midfielder85'
6.35
Referee : Luca Massimi

Starting XI ▼

22
Lorenzo Palmisani
Lorenzo Palmisani Goalkeeper
6.73
3
Gabriele Calvani
Gabriele Calvani Defender
6.6
6
Jacopo Gelli
Jacopo Gelli Defender
6.61
19
Niccolò Corrado
Niccolò Corrado Defender
7.55
20
Anthony Oyono
Anthony Oyono Defender
6.49
79
Gabriele Bracaglia
Gabriele Bracaglia
Defender77'
6.36
8
Ilias Koutsoupias
Ilias Koutsoupias Midfielder
6.24
10
Francesco Gelli
Francesco Gelli
Midfielder64'
6.55
14
Giacomo Calò
Giacomo Calò (C) Midfielder
8.68
16
Matteo Cichella
Matteo Cichella Midfielder
7.24
92
Ben Lhassine Kone
Ben Lhassine Kone
Midfielder84'
6.64
7
Farès Ghedjemis
Farès Ghedjemis Attacker
7.54
9
Antonio Raimondo
Antonio Raimondo Attacker
6.67
90
Edoardo Vergani
Edoardo Vergani
Attacker77'
6.55
17
Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze Attacker
6.71
80
Antonio Fiori
Antonio Fiori
Attacker65'
6.16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Matteo Francesconi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
7th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Peter Amoran
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Giacomo Vrioni → Tommaso Berti
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Matteo Francesconi → Cristian Shpendi
9th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Ben Lhassine Kone → Matteo Cichella
8th Substitution
Event
Tommaso Corazza
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
79'
77'
Event
Gabriele Bracaglia → Anthony Oyono
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Edoardo Vergani → Antonio Raimondo
7th Substitution
Event
Simone Bastoni → Dimitri Bisoli
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Peter Amoran → Andrea Ciofi
4th Substitution
73'
72'
Event
Farès Ghedjemis
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Tommaso Berti
Penalty disallowed
68'
65'
Event
Antonio Fiori → Giorgi Kvernadze
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Francesco Gelli → Ilias Koutsoupias
2nd Substitution
Event
Tommaso Corazza
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Tommaso Corazza → Matteo Guidi
1st Substitution
57'
52'
Event
Jacopo Gelli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Matteo Piacentini
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
1ST-HALF
Event
Cristian Shpendi
GoalkeeperSave
45+4'
40'
Event
Niccolò Corrado
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Matteo Guidi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
Event
6th Yellowcard
35'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Frosinone exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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