Calcio Padova vs Catanzaro Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Euganeo Sat, 14 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Calcio Padova PAD
1 Winner 3
Catanzaro CAT
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 2:00 PM
Luca Di Maggio - 90+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Gabriele Alesi - 17'
Pietro Iemmello - 51', 90+4'

CONTEXT

The match between Calcio Padova and Catanzaro has finished, with Catanzaro securing a 2-1 victory away from home. The visitors established their lead early, heading into the halftime break with a 1-0 advantage before ultimately seeing out the win in the second half. Catanzaro entered the contest as the stronger side, holding a 40.9% pre-match probability of winning compared to Calcio Padova's 29.3% chance and a 29.8% probability of a draw. The final result was fully aligned with these pre-match market expectations. However, the exact nature of the victory still represented a significant deviation for Catanzaro, pushing well past their baseline win probability. Despite being on the losing end, Calcio Padova actually controlled the majority of the ball, finishing with 54% possession against Catanzaro's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome was consistent with the raw quality of chances created. Nevertheless, the efficiency shift was perfectly in line with expectations, as the visitors made the most of their limited time on the ball. The match was cleanly contested with zero red cards issued, ensuring a straightforward tactical battle free of major disciplinary impacts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Catanzaro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Garzelli
D. Garzelli
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
S. Pistarelli
S. Pistarelli
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
M. Ferrieri Caputi
M. Ferrieri Caputi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
S. Gavini
S. Gavini
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Calcio Padova M. Andreoletti
M. Andreoletti
VS
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.72
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: 52 D
Modena Rank: 59 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 D
Sampdoria Rank: 54 L
Carrarese Rank: 53 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese Rank: 52 D
Frosinone Rank: 65 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 W
Mantova Rank: 48 W
Pescara Rank: 43 W
Reggiana Rank: 50 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Calcio Padova
29.32%
Draw
29.82%
Away Catanzaro
40.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.94
61.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Calcio Padova
Catanzaro
Power Score
47.94
61.1
League Position
11
5
Global Rank
777
423

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Calcio Padova Catanzaro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.61
32.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.50
28.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Calcio Padova -0.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Catanzaro +0.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Catanzaro
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Calcio Padova Catanzaro
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Calcio Padova Catanzaro
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Catanzaro
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Calcio Padova PAD Home
1 matches
Catanzaro CAT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:53:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Sorrentino
Italy
22 A. Sorrentino
F. Belli
Substitution
Italy
4 F. Belli
L. Villa
Italy
55 L. Villa
M. Perrotta
Italy
5 M. Perrotta
C. Faedo
Substitution
Italy
72 C. Faedo
A. Capelli
Italy
17 A. Capelli
P. Fusi
Substitution
Italy
8 P. Fusi
K. Varas Marcillo
Ecuador
7 (C) K. Varas Marcillo
F. Di Mariano
Substitution
Italy
77 F. Di Mariano
M. Bortolussi
Italy
20 M. Bortolussi
G. Caprari
Substitution
Italy
24 G. Caprari
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
N. Brighenti
Italy
23 N. Brighenti
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
T. Cassandro
Italy
84 T. Cassandro
G. Alesi
Substitution
Italy
30 G. Alesi
S. Pontisso
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
J. Petriccione
Substitution
Italy
10 J. Petriccione
C. Favasuli
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
P. Iemmello
Italy
9 (C) P. Iemmello
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali
F. Pittarello
Substitution
Italy
8 F. Pittarello

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Capacity
32420
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dario Garzelli
Simone Pistarelli
Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi
Simone Gavini

Statistics

Possession
PAD
53%
CAT
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 4
13 Shots 13
49 Dangerous attacks 39
54 Possession 46
3 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Substitutions 5
11 Dribble Attempts 7
0 Assists 3
73 Ball Safe 69
18 Throwins 18
9 Goal Attempts 12
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
6 Goal Kicks 12

Attacking

104 Attacks 71
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

71 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
9 Key Passes 9
86 Successful Passes Percentage 79
49 Long Passes 62
35 Successful Long Passes 31
414 Passes 362
354 Successful Passes 285

Defensive

9 Interceptions 11
2 Saves 0
18 Tackles 18

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
18 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Starting XI ▼

22
Alessandro Sorrentino
Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper
6.22
4
Francesco Belli
Francesco Belli Defender
6.4
30
Giulio Favale
Giulio Favale
Defender54'
6.52
5
Marco Perrotta
Marco Perrotta Defender
6.09
55
Lorenzo Villa
Lorenzo Villa Defender
7.16
72
Carlo Faedo
Carlo Faedo Defender
6.67
41
Jonathan Silva
Jonathan Silva
Midfielder68'
6.92
7
Kevin Varas
Kevin Varas (C) Midfielder
6.98
8
Pietro Fusi
Pietro Fusi Midfielder
6.35
23
Luca Di Maggio
Luca Di Maggio
Midfielder68'
7.07
17
Alessandro Capelli
Alessandro Capelli Midfielder
6.88
77
Francesco Di Mariano
Francesco Di Mariano Midfielder
6.62
92
Cristian Buonaiuto
Cristian Buonaiuto
Attacker68'
7.09
20
Mattia Bortolussi
Mattia Bortolussi Attacker
6.44
24
Gianluca Caprari
Gianluca Caprari Attacker
6.54
15
Kevin Lasagna
Kevin Lasagna
Attacker54'
6.4
Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.42
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
6.91
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Defender
6.6
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Defender
7
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Midfielder
6.74
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti
Midfielder74'
6.39
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
7.16
98
Davide Buglio
Davide Buglio
Midfielder85'
6.46
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
7.35
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
7.35
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini
Defender74'
6.5
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
6.5
19
Patrick Nuamah
Patrick Nuamah
Attacker85'
7
9
Pietro Iemmello
Pietro Iemmello (C) Attacker
2
8.82
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
6.38
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli
Midfielder59'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Pietro Iemmello
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Luca Di Maggio
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+2'
85'
Event
Patrick Nuamah → Filippo Pittarello
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Davide Buglio → Simone Pontisso
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Costantino Favasuli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Jacopo Petriccione
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Gabriele Alesi
7th Substitution
Event
Luca Di Maggio → Pietro Fusi
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Cristian Buonaiuto → Francesco Di Mariano
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Jonathan Silva → Carlo Faedo
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Francesco Di Mariano
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
59'
Event
Fabio Rispoli → Mattia Liberali
3rd Substitution
Event
Giulio Favale → Francesco Belli
1st Substitution
54'
Event
Kevin Lasagna → Gianluca Caprari
2nd Substitution
54'
51'
Event
Pietro Iemmello
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Mattia Liberali
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'
Event
Gabriele Alesi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Catanzaro exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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