Bari 1908 vs Empoli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale San Nicola Fri, 6 Mar - 2:06 PM
Serie B
Bari 1908 BAR
2 Winner 1
Empoli EMP
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:06 PM
Emanuele Rao - 42'
Giulio Maggiore - 72'
Goal
|
Goal
Stiven Shpendi - 45+1'
|
Red Card Matteo Lovato 23'

CONTEXT

The match between Bari 1908 and Empoli has finished, with Bari securing a 2-1 victory after heading into half-time locked at a 1-1 draw. This full-time result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Empoli entered the contest as the stronger team and market favorites, holding a 39.2% probability of winning, compared to Bari's 31.7% and a 29.1% chance of a draw. Consequently, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market forecasts. Bari managed to control the flow of the game, holding 55% of the possession compared to Empoli's 45%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the final scoreline was consistent with chance creation, the match's defining moment was undoubtedly a disciplinary issue. Empoli suffered a red card, which created a notable second-half distortion and handed Bari 1908 a crucial numerical advantage. Despite the unexpected result, the efficiency shift remained in line with pre-game modeling baselines. However, it was ultimately the sending-off that hampered the favored visitors, allowing Bari 1908 to capitalize on the structural mismatch and claim a resilient win against the market expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bari 1908 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Ferrieri Caputi
M. Ferrieri Caputi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
A. Cipressa
A. Cipressa
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
S. Pistarelli
S. Pistarelli
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
A. Silvestri
A. Silvestri
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
VS
Empoli A. Dionisi
A. Dionisi
0.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: D
Südtirol Rank: L
Spezia Rank: D
Mantova Rank: L
Palermo Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: D
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Palermo Rank: L
Modena Rank: D
Carrarese Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 3 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bari 1908
31.72%
Draw
29.09%
Away Empoli
39.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
33.33
39.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bari 1908
Empoli
Power Score
33.33
39.68
League Position
17
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bari 1908 Empoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.82
30.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.56
27.82
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bari 1908 -0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Empoli +0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Empoli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Empoli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bari 1908 Empoli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bari 1908 Empoli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Empoli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bari 1908 BAR Home
2 matches
Empoli EMP Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
2
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:17:53+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:06 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Comunale San Nicola
Capacity
58300
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi
Alessandro Cipressa
Simone Pistarelli
Alessandro Silvestri

Statistics

Possession
BAR
52%
EMP
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 1
46 Dangerous attacks 55
55 Possession 45
3 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
16 Throwins 17
0 Hit Woodwork 1
13 Dribble Attempts 20
8 Successful Dribbles 10
2 Goal Kicks 11
5 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Attempts 11
48 Ball Safe 63
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

92 Attacks 88

Possession

30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28
30 Long Passes 74
9 Successful Long Passes 21
372 Passes 291
81 Successful Passes Percentage 70
8 Key Passes 6
303 Successful Passes 203

Defensive

3 Interceptions 5
3 Saves 3
17 Tackles 10

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 25
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

10 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andrea Cistana
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Matthias Braunöder → Giulio Maggiore
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Marvin Cuni → Gabriele Moncini
10th Substitution
89'
80'
Event
Joseph Ceesay → Marco Curto
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Marco Nasti → Stiven Shpendi
8th Substitution
Event
Moussa Mané → Kevin Piscopo
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Giacomo De Pieri → Emanuele Rao
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Giulio Maggiore
Header / 3rd Goal
72'
Event
Nicola Bellomo → Tomás Esteves
4th Substitution
64'
62'
Event
Duccio Degli Innocenti → Gerard Yepes
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Rareș Ilie → Daniel Fila
2nd Substitution
Event
Tomás Esteves
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Emanuele Rao
Penalty disallowed
48'
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Stiven Shpendi
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Emanuele Rao
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
42'
29'
Event
Gabriele Guarino → Edoardo Saporiti
1st Substitution
23'
Event
Matteo Lovato
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
22'
Event
Daniel Fila
Goal disallowed
3'
Event
Gerard Yepes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Bari 1908 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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