Virtus Entella vs Avellino Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Chiavari Sun, 15 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Virtus Entella ENT
1 Winner 2
Avellino AVE
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 2:00 PM
Andrea Tiritiello - 90+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Raffaele Russo - 22'
Tommaso Cancellotti - 25'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Virtus Entella 1–2 Avellino. The result saw Avellino take the points. Avellino showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 59%–41%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Avellino showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Stefano Galimberti
Stefano Galimberti
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.35
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
G. Zanellati
G. Zanellati
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.35
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
E. Gianquinto
E. Gianquinto
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.35
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
M. Perri
M. Perri
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.98
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.35
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Virtus Entella A. Chiappella
A. Chiappella
VS
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: 58 W
Monza Rank: 65 L
Catanzaro Rank: 60 L
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Spezia Rank: 53 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: 68 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Reggiana Rank: 51 D
Pescara Rank: 43 L
Frosinone Rank: 65 L
Monza Rank: 65 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 5 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Virtus Entella
35.19%
Draw
34.19%
Away Avellino
30.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.16
49.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Virtus Entella
Avellino
Power Score
47.16
49.42
League Position
16
10
Global Rank
814
716

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Virtus Entella Avellino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Virtus Entella ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.39
17.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.80
38.39
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Virtus Entella +2.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Avellino -2.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Virtus Entella
Avellino
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Virtus Entella ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Virtus Entella Avellino
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Virtus Entella Avellino
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Virtus Entella
Avellino
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Virtus Entella ENT Home
1 matches
Avellino AVE Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:15:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
S. Colombi
Italy
1 S. Colombi
L. Parodi
Substitution
Italy
23 (C) L. Parodi
A. Tiritiello
Italy
6 A. Tiritiello
M. Alborghetti
Italy
3 M. Alborghetti
D. Bariti
Substitution
Italy
7 D. Bariti
N. Karic
Substitution
Sweden
8 N. Karic
N. Squizzato
Italy
5 N. Squizzato
L. Benedetti
Substitution
Italy
32 L. Benedetti
S. Di Mario
Italy
26 S. Di Mario
L. Cuppone
Italy
10 L. Cuppone
A. Debenedetti
Substitution
Italy
19 A. Debenedetti
G. Daffara
Italy
30 G. Daffara
M. Sala
Substitution
Italy
3 M. Sala
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
L. Šimić
Croatia
44 L. Šimić
T. Cancellotti
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
M. Besaggio
Substitution
Italy
39 M. Besaggio
L. Palmiero
Substitution
Italy
6 (C) L. Palmiero
D. Sounas
Greece
24 D. Sounas
M. Palumbo
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
G. Tutino
Substitution
Italy
7 G. Tutino
R. Russo
Substitution
Italy
10 R. Russo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Chiavari
Capacity
5500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stefano Galimberti
Glauco Zanellati
Edoardo Gianquinto
Mario Perri

Statistics

Possession
ENT
58%
AVE
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 2
73 Dangerous attacks 26
59 Possession 41
7 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

20 Throwins 23
17 Dribble Attempts 18
8 Successful Dribbles 10
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
6 Goal Kicks 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
79 Ball Safe 80
1 Assists 2
0 Injuries 2
7 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

139 Attacks 72
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

502 Passes 351
422 Successful Passes 277
84 Successful Passes Percentage 79
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
39 Successful Long Passes 29
73 Long Passes 69
9 Key Passes 4

Defensive

16 Tackles 21
1 Saves 5
5 Interceptions 5

Build-up

33 Total Crosses 17
9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

18 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Mario Perri

Starting XI ▼

1
Simone Colombi
Simone Colombi Goalkeeper
6.43
3
Mattia Alborghetti
Mattia Alborghetti Defender
6.86
6
Andrea Tiritiello
Andrea Tiritiello Defender
7.07
23
Luca Parodi
Luca Parodi (C) Defender
6.05
57
Tommaso Del Lungo
Tommaso Del Lungo
Defender55'
6.94
5
Niccolò Squizzato
Niccolò Squizzato Midfielder
7.17
7
Davide Bariti
Davide Bariti Midfielder
6.82
17
Mattia Tirelli
Mattia Tirelli
Attacker67'
6.57
8
Nermin Karić
Nermin Karić Midfielder
7.06
24
Andrea Franzoni
Andrea Franzoni
Midfielder55'
6.58
26
Stefano Di Mario
Stefano Di Mario Midfielder
6.54
32
Leonardo Benedetti
Leonardo Benedetti Midfielder
6.77
27
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Midfielder79'
6.3
10
Luigi Cuppone
Luigi Cuppone Attacker
6.69
19
Alessandro Debenedetti
Alessandro Debenedetti Attacker
6.76
11
Bernat Guiu
Bernat Guiu
Attacker67'
6.81
Referee : Mario Perri

Starting XI ▼

30
Giovanni Daffara
Giovanni Daffara Goalkeeper
7.17
3
Marco Sala
Marco Sala Defender
6.35
78
Alessandro Milani
Alessandro Milani
Defender79'
6.4
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
7.44
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
7.77
44
Lorenco Simic
Lorenco Simic Defender
7.31
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero (C) Midfielder
6.86
27
Andréa Le Borgne
Andréa Le Borgne
Midfielder46'
6.15
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
7.19
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
7.07
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Midfielder
6.69
16
Justin Kumi
Justin Kumi
Midfielder58'
6.47
7
Gennaro Tutino
Gennaro Tutino Attacker
6.63
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci
Attacker58'
6.47
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo Attacker
7.09
94
Roberto Insigne
Roberto Insigne
Attacker71'
6.42

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andrea Tiritiello
Header / 3rd Goal
90+3'
Event
Marco Dalla Vecchia → Leonardo Benedetti
10th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Alessandro Milani → Marco Sala
9th Substitution
71'
Event
Roberto Insigne → Raffaele Russo
8th Substitution
Event
Bernat Guiu → Alessandro Debenedetti
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Mattia Tirelli → Davide Bariti
7th Substitution
67'
58'
Event
Justin Kumi → Michele Besaggio
5th Substitution
58'
Event
Tommaso Biasci → Gennaro Tutino
4th Substitution
Event
Tommaso Del Lungo → Luca Parodi
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Andrea Franzoni → Nermin Karić
2nd Substitution
55'
46'
Event
Andréa Le Borgne → Luca Palmiero
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Luca Parodi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
25'
Event
Tommaso Cancellotti
Header / 2nd Goal
22'
Event
Raffaele Russo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'
Event
Marco Sala
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Avellino exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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