Juve Stabia vs Carrarese Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti Sat, 14 Mar - 2:00 PM

Serie B

Juve Stabia JUV

1 – 1

Carrarese CAR

Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 2:00 PM

Nicola Mosti - 33'

Ernesto Torregrossa - 77' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Juve Stabia and Carrarese has officially concluded, finishing in a 1-1 draw. The home side, Juve Stabia, went into the halftime break holding a narrow 1-0 advantage, but Carrarese successfully fought back in the second half to secure a share of the points. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, negatively impacting the stronger team, Juve Stabia. Before kickoff, the home side held a 45% implied probability of winning, compared to a 29.5% chance for a draw and a 25.5% likelihood of an away victory. Consequently, the final draw did not align with the pre-match market, frustrating those who backed the hosts. On the pitch, Juve Stabia dictated the tempo by holding 56% of the possession, leaving Carrarese with 44%. Expected goals (xG) data is unfortunately unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final scoreline was consistent with the exact scoring chances created. However, the overall efficiency shift was in line with standard play. Furthermore, the game was contested without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to impact the tactical balance of either side.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Juve Stabia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

P. Tremolada

Referee • 25 matches

Fouls / Match

Referee 0.52

League Avg 15.1

Yellow Cards / Match

Referee 0.12

League Avg 2.3

Red Cards / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0.18

Penalties / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0.15

M. Pressato

2nd Assistant • 25 matches

Fouls / Match

Referee 0.52

League Avg 15.1

Yellow Cards / Match

Referee 0.12

League Avg 2.3

Red Cards / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0.18

Penalties / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0.15

D. Leone

4th Official • 25 matches

Fouls / Match

Referee 0.52

League Avg 15.1

Yellow Cards / Match

Referee 0.12

League Avg 2.3

Red Cards / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0.18

Penalties / Match

Referee 0

League Avg 0.15

I. Abate

A. Calabro

1.48

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.08

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 1 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Juve Stabia

45.03%

Draw

29.47%

Carrarese

25.49%

Team Power Ranking

54.22

51.8

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Juve Stabia

Carrarese

Power Score

54.22

51.8

League Position

Global Rank

630

681

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score

Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juve Stabia Carrarese

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Carrarese

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.18

26.48

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

26.48

30.18

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Juve Stabia +0.37 Efficiency Index

Carrarese -0.37 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Juve Stabia

Carrarese

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Carrarese

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Juve Stabia Carrarese

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Juve Stabia Carrarese

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Juve Stabia

Carrarese

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juve Stabia JUV Home

3 matches

Carrarese CAR Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-2

Goal Difference

Expected Goals

xGA

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:54:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

1 A. Confente

46 S. Diakite

33 A. Giorgini

6 (C) M. Bellich

2 M. Ricciardi

98 N. Mosti

55 G. Leone

29 O. Correia

24 L. Carissoni

7 R. Burnete

9 A. Gabrielloni

1 M. Bleve

73 J. Rouhi

6 F. Oliana

37 N. Calabrese

3 (C) M. Imperiale

70 L. Hasa

17 E. Zuelli

8 F. Melegoni

7 N. Belloni

32 M. Finotto

9 F. Abiuso

General Information

Date & Time

Mar 14, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadium

Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti

Capacity

12000

Pitch Surface

Artificial turf

Weather

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees

Paride Tremolada

Matteo Pressato

Domenico Leone

Statistics

Possession

JUV

53%

CAR

47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

0 Big Chances Created 1

15 Shots 10

38 Dangerous attacks 33

56 Possession 44

6 Corners 8

14 Free kicks 15

2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Throwins 20

0 Penalties 1

4 Successful Dribbles 10

44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71

11 Goal Attempts 7

77 Ball Safe 85

5 Goal Kicks 9

5 Substitutions 4

1 Injuries 1

9 Dribble Attempts 14

Attacking

97 Attacks 83

Possession

53 Long Passes 61

30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

429 Passes 335

352 Successful Passes 249

16 Successful Long Passes 22

82 Successful Passes Percentage 74

10 Key Passes 5

Defensive

4 Saves 3

4 Interceptions 4

15 Tackles 11

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 20

5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 13

0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Paride Tremolada

Manager ▼

I. Abate Coach

Starting XI ▼

Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper

7.07

Marco Bellich (C) Defender

6.41

Christian Dalle Mura

Defender79'

6.79

Andrea Giorgini Defender

6.35

Salim Diakité Defender

7.37

Marco Varnier

Defender78'

6.47

Manuel Ricciardi Midfielder

6.8

Mattia Mannini

Defender78'

6.33

Lorenzo Carissoni Midfielder

6.44

Omar Correia Midfielder

6.8

Giuseppe Leone Midfielder

6.83

Nicola Mosti Midfielder

7.41

Emanuele Torrasi

Midfielder88'

Rareș Burnete Attacker

6.86

Alvin Okoro

Attacker68'

6.58

Alessandro Gabrielloni Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Alessandro Signorini Goalkeeper

Pietro Boer Goalkeeper

Sheriff Kassama Defender

Aaron Ciammaglichella Midfielder

Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos Attacker

Referee : Paride Tremolada