Monza vs Palermo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
U-Power Stadium Sat, 14 Mar - 4:15 PM
Serie B
Monza MON
3 Winner 0
Palermo PAL
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 4:15 PM
Andrea Petagna - 18'
Patrick Ciurria - 63'
Leonardo Colombo - 88'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Monza 3–0 Palermo. The result saw Monza take the points. Monza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 42%–58%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Monza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Cipressa
A. Cipressa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. Doveri
D. Doveri
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
A. Calzavara
A. Calzavara
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
V. Colarossi
V. Colarossi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
VS
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
2.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 W
Carrarese Rank: 53 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 W
Südtirol Rank: 57 D
Avellino Rank: 50 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 57 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 W
Sampdoria Rank: 54 D
Empoli Rank: 57 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 W
Modena Rank: 59 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Monza
43.6%
Draw
28.61%
Away Palermo
27.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.44
62.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Monza
Palermo
Power Score
59.44
62.56
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
289
378

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Monza Palermo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.76
38.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.19
19.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Monza -1.83 Efficiency Index
vs
Palermo +1.83 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Palermo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Monza Palermo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Monza Palermo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Palermo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Monza MON Home
1 matches
Palermo PAL Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
3
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:21:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
L. Ravanelli
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
F. Delli Carri
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Lucchesi
Italy
3 L. Lucchesi
P. Ciurria
Substitution
Italy
26 P. Ciurria
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
Equatorial Guinea
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
H. Azevedo Júnior
Substitution
Brazil
8 H. Azevedo Júnior
M. Pessina
Italy
32 (C) M. Pessina
P. Dentello Azzi
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Dentello Azzi
P. Cutrone
Substitution
Italy
10 P. Cutrone
A. Petagna
Substitution
Italy
37 A. Petagna
J. Joronen
Finland
66 J. Joronen
P. Ceccaroni
Substitution
Italy
32 P. Ceccaroni
M. Bani
Italy
13 (C) M. Bani
P. Peda
Substitution
Poland
29 P. Peda
T. Augello
Italy
3 T. Augello
F. Ranocchia
Italy
10 F. Ranocchia
J. Segre
Substitution
Italy
8 J. Segre
N. Pierozzi
Substitution
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
A. Palumbo
Italy
5 A. Palumbo
J. Le Douaron
Substitution
France
21 J. Le Douaron
J. Pohjanpalo
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
U-Power Stadium
Capacity
18568
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alessandro Cipressa
Daniele Doveri
Andrea Calzavara
Valerio Colarossi

Statistics

Possession
MON
42%
PAL
58%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 4
26 Dangerous attacks 63
42 Possession 58
3 Corners 10
11 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

13 Goal Kicks 6
20 Dribble Attempts 17
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
13 Throwins 25
0 Hit Woodwork 1
6 Successful Dribbles 8
50 Ball Safe 47
6 Goal Attempts 10
0 Injuries 1
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
77 Attacks 85

Possession

215 Successful Passes 342
295 Passes 399
19 Successful Long Passes 24
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
54 Long Passes 44
73 Successful Passes Percentage 86
5 Key Passes 12

Defensive

13 Tackles 16
2 Interceptions 6
4 Saves 0

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 33
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

10 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
7.66
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Defender
7.04
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
7.09
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
7.5
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Midfielder
7.83
2
Arvid Brorsson
Arvid Brorsson
Defender89'
8
Hernani
Hernani Midfielder
6.53
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune
Defender46'
6.05
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Midfielder
6.92
26
Patrick Ciurria
Patrick Ciurria Midfielder
7.1
21
Leonardo Colombo
Leonardo Colombo
Midfielder72'
7.17
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina (C) Midfielder
6.7
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Attacker
6.35
25
Agustín Álvarez
Agustín Álvarez
Attacker86'
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Attacker
7.23
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota
Attacker72'
6.73
Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
6.21
13
Mattia Bani
Mattia Bani (C) Defender
6.18
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda Defender
6.12
96
Giangiacomo Magnani
Giangiacomo Magnani
Defender64'
6.47
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
6.5
7
Dennis Johnsen
Dennis Johnsen
Attacker64'
6.37
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
7.47
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Midfielder
6.12
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic
Midfielder72'
6.34
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
7.56
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder
6.83
18
Pietro Avena
Pietro Avena
Midfielder59'
6.11
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Attacker
7.05
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
6.73
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron Attacker
6.41
31
Giacomo Corona
Giacomo Corona
Attacker72'
6.85

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Arvid Brorsson → Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Leonardo Colombo
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
88'
Event
Agustín Álvarez → Patrick Cutrone
9th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
Filippo Ranocchia
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
77'
Event
7th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Pietro Avena
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Luca Ravanelli
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Leonardo Colombo → Patrick Ciurria
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Dany Mota → Andrea Petagna
7th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Giacomo Corona → Jérémy Le Douaron
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Aljosa Vasic → Jacopo Segre
8th Substitution
64'
Event
Dennis Johnsen → Pietro Ceccaroni
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Giangiacomo Magnani → Patryk Peda
4th Substitution
Event
Patrick Ciurria
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
63'
62'
Event
Pietro Ceccaroni
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Pietro Avena → Niccolò Pierozzi
2nd Substitution
Event
Adam Bakoune → Hernani
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Hernani
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
28'
Event
Antonio Palumbo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Andrea Petagna
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
18'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Monza exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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