Spezia vs Monza Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Picco
Sat, 7 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Spezia
SPE
4
2
2
Monza
MON
Full Time
Sat, 7 Mar
2:00 PM
Gabriele Artistico - 20', 90+3'
Giuseppe Aurelio - 34'
Filippo Bandinelli - 57'
|
Andrea Petagna - 9'
Patrick Cutrone - 16'
|
Andrea Carboni 32'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 16
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Spezia 4–2 Monza. The result saw Spezia take the points. Spezia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 51%–49%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Spezia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Bianchini
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.13
F. Maresca
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.13
E. Feliciani
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.13
D. Yoshikawa
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.13
R. Donadoni
VS
P. Bianco
1
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
2.12
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena
Rank:
W
Frosinone
Rank:
L
Bari 1908
Rank:
D
Virtus Entella
Rank:
D
Sampdoria
Rank:
L
Avellino
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Virtus Entella
Rank:
W
Carrarese
Rank:
W
Juve Stabia
Rank:
W
Südtirol
Rank:
D
Avellino
Rank:
W
Calcio Padova
Rank:
W
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 3
3
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Spezia
26.62%
Draw
27.39%
Monza
45.99%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
33.33
62.13
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spezia
Monza
Power Score
33.33
62.13
League Position
16
2
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Spezia
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Monza
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Spezia Monza
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Spezia
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Monza
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Spezia
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Monza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.49
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.41
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Spezia
+1.96
Efficiency Index
vs
Monza
-1.96
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Monza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Spezia
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Monza
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Spezia
Monza
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Spezia
Monza
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spezia
Monza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Spezia
SPE
Home
1
matches
Monza
MON
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:04:30+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Picco
Capacity
10336
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrea Bianchini
Fabio Maresca
Ermanno Feliciani
Daisuke Emanuele Yoshikawa
Statistics
Possession
SPE
51%
MON
49%
Top Statistics
4
Goals
2
4
Big Chances Created
2
8
Shots
3
53
Dangerous attacks
40
51
Possession
49
3
Corners
2
14
Free kicks
15
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
20
Throwins
17
2
Successful Dribbles
8
2
Assists
2
5
Goal Kicks
9
33
Successful Dribbles Percentage
53
6
Dribble Attempts
15
4
Substitutions
5
8
Goal Attempts
4
2
Injuries
0
43
Ball Safe
50
Attacking
81
Attacks
87
2
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
11
Key Passes
8
78
Successful Passes Percentage
78
22
Successful Long Passes
19
381
Passes
379
39
Successful Long Passes Percentage
37
298
Successful Passes
296
56
Long Passes
52
Defensive
19
Tackles
9
9
Interceptions
6
3
Saves
1
Build-up
23
Total Crosses
12
5
Accurate Crosses
0
Discipline
3
Offsides
2
15
Fouls
14
Events
2ND-HALF
Gabriele Artistico
Header / 6th Goal
90+3'
Alessandro Bellemo → Christian Comotto
8th Substitution
85'
Petko Hristov → Pietro Beruatto
9th Substitution
85'
76'
Agustín Álvarez → Patrick Cutrone
7th Substitution
72'
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Emanuele Adamo → Mattia Valoti
6th Substitution
68'
65'
Dany Mota → Giuseppe Caso
5th Substitution
65'
Hernani → Matteo Pessina
4th Substitution
Gabriele Artistico
Persistent fouling / 4th Yellowcard
63'
Ádám Nagy → Filippo Bandinelli
3rd Substitution
60'
Filippo Bandinelli
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
57'
46'
Arvid Brorsson → Andrea Colpani
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Leonardo Sernicola
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+1'
Giuseppe Aurelio
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
Giuseppe Aurelio
Header / 4th Goal
34'
34'
Lorenzo Lucchesi → Andrea Petagna
1st Substitution
32'
Andrea Carboni
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Gabriele Artistico
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
20'
16'
Patrick Cutrone
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
10'
Andrea Carboni
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Andrea Petagna
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Spezia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.