Mantova vs Juve Stabia Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Mon, 9 Mar - 12:08 AM
Serie B
Mantova
MAN
2
0
0
Juve Stabia
JUV
Full Time
Mon, 9 Mar
12:08 AM
Davide Bragantini - 21'
Leonardo Mancuso - 45+3'
|
|
Christian Pierobon 26'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 17
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Mantova 2–0 Juve Stabia. The result saw Mantova take the points. Mantova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 67%–33%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Mantova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Pezzuto
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.16
A. Niedda
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.16
M. Pascarella
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.16
J. Mbei
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.16
F. Modesto
VS
I. Abate
0.96
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.48
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese
Rank:
D
Sampdoria
Rank:
W
Catanzaro
Rank:
L
Reggiana
Rank:
L
Bari 1908
Rank:
W
Pescara
Rank:
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino
Rank:
D
Modena
Rank:
L
Monza
Rank:
L
Empoli
Rank:
W
Calcio Padova
Rank:
D
Reggiana
Rank:
D
0
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Mantova
37.85%
Draw
29.3%
Juve Stabia
32.85%
Movement
Changes since opening
Mantova
-0.28%
Draw
-0.22%
Juve Stabia
+0.5%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
34.48
45.98
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mantova
Juve Stabia
Power Score
34.48
45.98
League Position
16
7
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Mantova
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Juve Stabia
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Mantova Juve Stabia
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Mantova
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Juve Stabia
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Mantova
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Juve Stabia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.12
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Mantova
+1.59
Efficiency Index
vs
Juve Stabia
-1.59
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Juve Stabia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Mantova
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Juve Stabia
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Mantova
Juve Stabia
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Mantova
Juve Stabia
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Juve Stabia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Mantova
MAN
Home
3
matches
Juve Stabia
JUV
Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:08:52+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 09, 2026, 12:08 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Capacity
7487
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivano Pezzuto
Andrea Niedda
Mattia Pascarella
Jues Roland Mbei
Statistics
Possession
MAN
64%
JUV
36%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
0
2
Big Chances Created
0
4
Shots
1
61
Dangerous attacks
20
67
Possession
33
6
Corners
1
13
Free kicks
21
2
Yellow Cards
8
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
3
Successful Dribbles
6
2
Assists
0
0
Hit Woodwork
1
2
Goal Kicks
10
18
Throwins
26
21
Successful Dribbles Percentage
35
14
Dribble Attempts
17
1
Injuries
0
5
Substitutions
5
60
Ball Safe
75
13
Goal Attempts
3
Attacking
1
Big Chances Missed
0
137
Attacks
56
Possession
84
Successful Passes Percentage
71
599
Passes
296
23
Successful Long Passes
20
44
Successful Long Passes Percentage
37
506
Successful Passes
209
52
Long Passes
54
12
Key Passes
2
Defensive
21
Tackles
22
11
Interceptions
9
1
Saves
2
Build-up
6
Accurate Crosses
3
15
Total Crosses
7
Discipline
2
Offsides
0
16
Fouls
11
Events
2ND-HALF
90+1'
Nicola Mosti
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
85'
Christian Dalle Mura
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
83'
Mattia Mannini
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Davis Mensah → Leonardo Mancuso
10th Substitution
73'
Tommaso Marras → Davide Bragantini
9th Substitution
73'
66'
Alvin Okoro → Alessio Cacciamani
8th Substitution
Tommaso Maggioni → Rachid Kouda
7th Substitution
63'
David Wieser → Nicolò Radaelli
6th Substitution
62'
58'
Rareș Burnete → Alessandro Gabrielloni
5th Substitution
Nicolò Radaelli
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
57'
57'
Alessio Cacciamani
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Tiago Gonçalves → Fahem Benaïssa
4th Substitution
54'
52'
Salim Diakité
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Fahem Benaïssa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
47'
46'
Manuel Ricciardi → Omar Correia
3rd Substitution
46'
Mattia Mannini → Lorenzo Carissoni
1st Substitution
46'
Nicola Mosti → Matheus Luz Priveato Dos Santos
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Leonardo Mancuso
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+3'
38'
Omar Correia
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Christian Pierobon
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Davide Bragantini
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
21'
10'
Christian Pierobon
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Mantova exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.