Zagłębie Lubin vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin
Sun, 15 Mar - 1:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Zagłębie Lubin
Zagłębie Lubin
0
1
1
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
Full Time
Sun, 15 Mar
1:45 PM
|
Mikael Ishak - 7'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Zagłębie Lubin 0–1 Lech Poznań. The result saw Lech Poznań take the points. Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 37%–63%.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Arys
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
17.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.04
M. Obukowicz
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
17.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.04
D. Stefanski
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
17.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.04
A. Różycki
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
17.2
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.04
L. Ojrzynski
VS
N. Frederiksen
1.88
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.65
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice
Rank: 61
W
Wisła Płock
Rank: 57
W
Lechia Gdańsk
Rank: 61
W
Raków Częstochowa
Rank: 71
D
Korona Kielce
Rank: 63
W
Katowice
Rank: 63
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa
Rank: 71
W
Korona Kielce
Rank: 63
W
Piast Gliwice
Rank: 61
W
Górnik Zabrze
Rank: 64
W
Piast Gliwice
Rank: 61
L
Lechia Gdańsk
Rank: 61
L
13
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 13 - 14
14
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Zagłębie Lubin
22.61%
Draw
26.12%
Lech Poznań
51.27%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.88
68.05
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zagłębie Lubin
Lech Poznań
Power Score
63.88
68.05
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
340
217
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Zagłębie Lubin
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Zagłębie Lubin Lech Poznań
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Zagłębie Lubin
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Lech Poznań
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Zagłębie Lubin
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Lech Poznań
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.76
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.65
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Zagłębie Lubin
+1.60
Efficiency Index
vs
Lech Poznań
-1.60
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Lech Poznań
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Zagłębie Lubin
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Lech Poznań
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Zagłębie Lubin
Lech Poznań
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin
Lech Poznań
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Lech Poznań
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Zagłębie Lubin
Zagłębie Lubin
Home
11
matches
Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań
Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
3
Goals
12
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
12
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:06:39+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-3
Match Formation
4-4-2
1 J. Burić
J. Sypek
#1979'
31 I. Orlikowski
25 M. Nalepa
4 D. Michalski
16 J. Čorluka
8 (C) D. Dąbrowski
S. Kowalczyk
#746'
20 M. Dziewiatowski
L. Lučić
#3546'
13 M. Grzybek
44 M. Reguła
L. Szabo
#1746'
9 M. Kosidis
J. Díaz Gómez
#2768'
18 A. Radwański
41 B. Mrozek
M. Gurgul
#1564'
4 J. Bragança Moutinho
16 A. Milić
27 W. Mońka
2 J. Vieira Pereira
14 L. Bengtsson
G. Thórdarson
#2373'
99 P. Delgado
43 A. Kozubal
R. Gumny
#2087'
8 A. Gholizadeh
L. Palma Oseguera
#7764'
10 P. Wålemark
M. Agnero
#773'
9 (C) M. Ishak
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 01:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin
Capacity
16068
Attendance
16033
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marek Arys
Michal Obukowicz
Daniel Stefanski
Albert Różycki
Statistics
Possession
Zagłębie Lubin
42%
Lech Poznań
58%
Top Statistics
0
Goals
1
0
Big Chances Created
2
8
Shots
5
66
Dangerous attacks
61
37
Possession
63
2
Corners
3
14
Free kicks
12
1
Yellow Cards
3
Match Overview
4
Goal Kicks
10
18
Dribble Attempts
18
39
Successful Dribbles Percentage
33
13
Throwins
21
7
Successful Dribbles
6
0
Hit Woodwork
1
5
Substitutions
5
3
Injuries
0
89
Ball Safe
104
8
Goal Attempts
6
Attacking
97
Attacks
115
0
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
48
Successful Long Passes Percentage
39
290
Passes
515
67
Successful Passes Percentage
83
195
Successful Passes
425
28
Successful Long Passes
19
9
Key Passes
13
58
Long Passes
49
Defensive
17
Tackles
15
3
Saves
1
13
Interceptions
6
Build-up
19
Total Crosses
11
4
Accurate Crosses
0
Discipline
1
Offsides
3
12
Fouls
14
Lineup
Referee :
Daniel Stefanski
Manager ▼
L. Ojrzynski
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Jasmin Buric
Goalkeeper
6.99 4
Damian Michalski
Defender
6.54 25
Michal Nalepa
Defender
7.11
31
Igor Orlikowski
Defender
6.88 19Jakub Sypek
6.71Midfielder79'
8
Damian Dabrowski (C)
Midfielder
6.78 13
Mateusz Grzybek
Midfielder
6.86 35Luka Lucic
6.81Defender46'
16
Josip Corluka
Midfielder
7.44 20
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Midfielder
6.36 7Sebastian Kowalczyk
6.63Midfielder46'
9
Michalis Kosidis
Attacker
6.4 17Levente Szabó
6.6Attacker46'
18
Adam Radwanski
Attacker
6.63 27Jesus Diaz
6.56Midfielder68'
44
Marcel Regula
Attacker
7.32 Substitutes ▼
12
Rafal Gikiewicz
Goalkeeper
94
Maciej Urbański
Defender
11
Arkadiusz Wozniak
Midfielder
26
Jakub Kolan
Midfielder
39
Filip Kocaba
Midfielder
88
Mihael Mlinarić
Attacker
Referee :
Daniel Stefanski
Manager ▼
N. Frederiksen
Coach
Starting XI ▼
41
Bartosz Mrozek
Goalkeeper
7 2
Joel Pereira
Defender
7.33 4
João Moutinho
Defender
6.83
15Michal Gurgul
6.72Defender64'
16
Antonio Milic
Defender
7.21 27
Wojciech Monka
Defender
7.25
8
Ali Gholizadeh
Midfielder
6.85 20Robert Gumny
Defender87'
14
Leo Bengtsson
Midfielder
6.39 43
Antoni Kozubal
Midfielder
6.88
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Midfielder
6.38 23Gísli Thórdarson
6.5Midfielder73'
9
Mikael Ishak (C)
Attacker
7Yannick Agnero
6.44Attacker73'
10
Patrik Wålemark
Attacker
7.19 77Luis Palma
6.8Midfielder64'
Substitutes ▼
1
Plamen Andreev
Goalkeeper
72
Mateusz Skrzypczak
Defender
6
Timothy Ouma
Midfielder
88
Taofeek Ismaheel
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
90+3'
Wojciech Monka
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Robert Gumny → Ali Gholizadeh
10th Substitution
Jakub Sypek → Igor Orlikowski
9th Substitution
79'
73'
Gísli Thórdarson → Pablo Rodríguez
8th Substitution
73'
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak
7th Substitution
Jesus Diaz → Adam Radwanski
6th Substitution
68'
64'
Luis Palma → Patrik Wålemark
5th Substitution
64'
Michal Gurgul → João Moutinho
4th Substitution
53'
Antoni Kozubal
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Levente Szabó → Michalis Kosidis
3rd Substitution
46'
Sebastian Kowalczyk → Mateusz Dziewiatowski
1st Substitution
46'
Luka Lucic → Mateusz Grzybek
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
41'
João Moutinho
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Michal Nalepa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'
7'
Mikael Ishak
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Lech Poznań exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.