Górnik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Arena Zabrze Sun, 15 Mar - 4:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze
3 Winner 1
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 4:30 PM
Lukas Sadilek - 23', 88'
Lukas Ambros - 43'
Goal
|
Goal
Michael Ameyaw - 79'
Lukas Podolski 90+2' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Górnik Zabrze 3–1 Raków Częstochowa. The result saw Górnik Zabrze take the points. Górnik Zabrze showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 44%–56%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Górnik Zabrze showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Raczkowski
P. Raczkowski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
A. Kupsik
A. Kupsik
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
F. Sierant
F. Sierant
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
M. Pelka
M. Pelka
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Górnik Zabrze M. Gašparík
M. Gašparík
VS
Raków Częstochowa ?. Tomczyk
?. Tomczyk
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.63
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 D
Katowice Rank: 62 L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 L
Nieciecza Rank: 54 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Nieciecza Rank: 54 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 63 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Górnik Zabrze
38.72%
Draw
29.12%
Away Raków Częstochowa
32.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.08
68.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Górnik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
Power Score
64.08
68.53
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
334
204

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Górnik Zabrze — Opponent-weighted form score
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Górnik Zabrze Raków Częstochowa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Górnik Zabrze

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Górnik Zabrze ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.59
32.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.50
36.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Górnik Zabrze +0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Raków Częstochowa -0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Górnik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Górnik Zabrze ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Górnik Zabrze Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Górnik Zabrze Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Górnik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze Home
11 matches
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
5
Goals
9
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
9
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:42:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Łubik
Poland
1 M. Łubik
P. Olkowski
Poland
16 P. Olkowski
R. Janicki
Poland
26 R. Janicki
J. Sánchez Guillén
Substitution
Spain
20 J. Sánchez Guillén
E. Janža
Slovenia
64 (C) E. Janža
L. Sadílek
Czech Republic
13 L. Sadílek
P. Hellebrand
Substitution
Czech Republic
8 P. Hellebrand
L. Ambros
Czech Republic
18 L. Ambros
Y. Ikia Dimi
Substitution
France
7 Y. Ikia Dimi
S. Liseth
Substitution
Norway
23 S. Liseth
M. Khlan
Substitution
Ukraine
33 M. Khlan
O. Zych
Poland
48 O. Zych
E. Svarnas
Greece
4 E. Svarnas
B. Racovitan
Substitution
France
25 B. Racovitan
Z. Arsenić
Croatia
24 (C) Z. Arsenić
A. Amorim Santos
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. Amorim Santos
O. Repka
Poland
6 O. Repka
M. Bulat
Substitution
Croatia
5 M. Bulat
M. Ameyaw
Poland
19 M. Ameyaw
I. López Álvarez
Substitution
Spain
10 I. López Álvarez
M. Diaby Fadiga
France
80 M. Diaby Fadiga
L. Miramar Rocha
Substitution
Portugal
17 L. Miramar Rocha

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Arena Zabrze
Capacity
24413
Attendance
23171
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Paweł Raczkowski
Adam Kupsik
Filip Sierant
Maciej Pelka

Statistics

Possession
Górnik Zabrze
45%
Raków Częstochowa
55%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 6
62 Dangerous attacks 64
44 Possession 56
4 Corners 7
10 Free kicks 12
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
10 Dribble Attempts 15
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
20 Throwins 21
10 Goal Kicks 3
5 Successful Dribbles 6
9 Goal Attempts 9
75 Ball Safe 73
2 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

77 Attacks 80
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 19
257 Successful Passes 377
75 Successful Passes Percentage 86
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
11 Key Passes 12
54 Long Passes 37
341 Passes 436

Defensive

8 Interceptions 11
2 Saves 3
16 Tackles 12

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 23
1 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

12 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Marcel Lubik
Marcel Lubik Goalkeeper
6.35
16
Pawel Olkowski
Pawel Olkowski Defender
6.78
20
Josema
Josema Defender
6.88
4
Pawel Bochniewicz
Pawel Bochniewicz
Defender68'
6.32
26
Rafal Janicki
Rafal Janicki Defender
7.04
64
Erik Janza
Erik Janza (C) Defender
6.86
8
Patrik Hellebrand
Patrik Hellebrand Midfielder
7.19
28
Bastien Donio
Bastien Donio
Midfielder90+1'
13
Lukas Sadilek
Lukas Sadilek Midfielder
2
8.6
18
Lukas Ambros
Lukas Ambros Midfielder
7.69
7
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Yvan Ikia Dimi Attacker
6.6
67
Ondrej Zmrzly
Ondrej Zmrzly
Defender46'
6.37
23
Sondre Liseth
Sondre Liseth Attacker
6.85
21
Mathias Dahl Sauer
Mathias Dahl Sauer
Midfielder90'
33
Maksym Khlan
Maksym Khlan Attacker
6.94
10
Lukas Podolski
Lukas Podolski
Attacker90'
5.05
Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

48
Oliwier Zych
Oliwier Zych Goalkeeper
6.2
4
Stratos Svarnas
Stratos Svarnas Defender
6.81
24
Zoran Arsenic
Zoran Arsenic (C) Defender
6.05
25
Bogdan Racovițan
Bogdan Racovițan Defender
6.62
27
Paweł Dawidowicz
Paweł Dawidowicz
Defender72'
6.4
5
Marko Bulat
Marko Bulat Midfielder
6.57
23
Karol Struski
Karol Struski
Midfielder46'
6.73
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka Midfielder
6.56
11
Adriano
Adriano Midfielder
6.53
20
Jean Carlos Silva
Jean Carlos Silva
Midfielder46'
6.41
19
Michael Ameyaw
Michael Ameyaw Midfielder
7.52
10
Ivi López
Ivi López Attacker
7.03
9
Patryk Makuch
Patryk Makuch
Attacker46'
6.43
17
Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo Rocha Attacker
6.44
18
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Attacker46'
6.72
80
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga Attacker
7.1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lukas Podolski
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
90+2'
Event
Bastien Donio → Patrik Hellebrand
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Lukas Podolski → Maksym Khlan
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Mathias Dahl Sauer → Sondre Liseth
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Lukas Sadilek
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
88'
79'
Event
Michael Ameyaw
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
72'
Event
Paweł Dawidowicz → Bogdan Racovițan
7th Substitution
Event
Pawel Bochniewicz → Josema
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Ondrej Zmrzly → Yvan Ikia Dimi
5th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Jonatan Braut Brunes → Leonardo Rocha
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Patryk Makuch → Ivi López
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Jean Carlos Silva → Adriano
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Karol Struski → Marko Bulat
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Lukas Ambros
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
43'
Event
Lukas Sadilek
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
23'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Górnik Zabrze exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Ekstraklasa View all league clusters