Katowice vs Lechia Gdańsk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion ul. Bukowa Sat, 14 Mar - 4:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Katowice Katowice
2 Winner 0
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 4:30 PM
Mateusz Wdowiak - 39'
Ilya Shkurin - 60'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Katowice 2–0 Lechia Gdańsk. The result saw Katowice take the points. Katowice showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 38%–62%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Katowice showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Kochanek
M. Kochanek
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
D. Golis
D. Golis
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
M. Kosarzecki
M. Kosarzecki
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
L. Lewandowski
L. Lewandowski
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
VS
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
1.73
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Widzew Lodz Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Motor Lublin Rank: W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: D
Lech Poznań Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Katowice
39.19%
Draw
26.15%
Away Lechia Gdańsk
34.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.2
59.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Katowice
Lechia Gdańsk
Power Score
64.2
59.81
League Position
7
13
Global Rank
328
465

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Katowice Lechia Gdańsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lechia Gdańsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.95
27.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.50
38.95
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Katowice +1.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Lechia Gdańsk -1.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Lechia Gdańsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lechia Gdańsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Katowice Lechia Gdańsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Katowice Lechia Gdańsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Lechia Gdańsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Katowice Katowice Home
3 matches
Lechia Gdańsk LGD Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
5
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:22:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Straczek
Poland
12 R. Straczek
M. Wasielewski
Poland
23 M. Wasielewski
L. Klemenz
Poland
6 L. Klemenz
M. Kuusk
Estonia
2 M. Kuusk
E. Jirka
Slovakia
97 E. Jirka
M. Kowalczyk
Poland
77 M. Kowalczyk
S. Milewski
Substitution
Poland
22 S. Milewski
B. Galán González
Spain
8 B. Galán González
M. Wdowiak
Substitution
Poland
70 M. Wdowiak
B. Nowak
Substitution
Poland
27 (C) B. Nowak
I. Shkurin
Substitution
Belarus
80 I. Shkurin
A. Paulsen
New Zealand
18 A. Paulsen
M. Vojtko
Slovakia
27 M. Vojtko
M. Rodin
Substitution
Croatia
80 M. Rodin
M. Dyachuk
Ukraine
15 M. Dyachuk
T. Wójtowicz
Substitution
Poland
33 T. Wójtowicz
I. Zhelizko
Ukraine
5 I. Zhelizko
R. Kapič
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 (C) R. Kapič
A. Ćirković
Serbia
8 A. Ćirković
T. Neugebauer
Substitution
Poland
99 T. Neugebauer
K. Sezonienko
Substitution
Poland
79 K. Sezonienko
D. Kurminowski
Substitution
Poland
90 D. Kurminowski

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion ul. Bukowa
Capacity
7455
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marcin Kochanek
Dawid Igor Golis
Maciej Kosarzecki
Leszek Lewandowski

Statistics

Possession
Katowice
42%
LGD
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 5
36 Dangerous attacks 61
38 Possession 62
5 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

21 Throwins 17
9 Successful Dribbles 6
10 Goal Attempts 7
81 Ball Safe 82
12 Goal Kicks 5
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
1 Injuries 0
23 Dribble Attempts 14
2 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

90 Attacks 106
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

223 Successful Passes 406
1 Key Passes 0
76 Successful Passes Percentage 83
294 Passes 489
52 Long Passes 48
24 Successful Long Passes 25
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

1 Saves 5
12 Tackles 17
7 Interceptions 6

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 3
14 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Marcin Kochanek

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Straczek
Rafal Straczek Goalkeeper
6.82
2
Märten Kuusk
Märten Kuusk Defender
6.78
6
Lukas Klemenz
Lukas Klemenz Defender
6.99
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Defender
7.32
8
Borja Galán
Borja Galán Midfielder
7.06
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Midfielder
7.28
26
Damian Rasak
Damian Rasak
Midfielder83'
6.55
77
Mateusz Kowalczyk
Mateusz Kowalczyk Midfielder
6.68
97
Erik Jirka
Erik Jirka Midfielder
7.32
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak (C) Attacker
7.9
11
Adrian Blad
Adrian Blad
Midfielder89'
70
Mateusz Wdowiak
Mateusz Wdowiak Attacker
7.65
10
Marcel Wedrychowski
Marcel Wedrychowski
Midfielder76'
6.23
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin Attacker
7.37
21
Jakub Kokosiński
Jakub Kokosiński
Attacker83'
6.54
Referee : Marcin Kochanek

Starting XI ▼

18
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
6.85
15
Maksym Dyachuk
Maksym Dyachuk Defender
6.82
27
Matus Vojtko
Matus Vojtko Defender
6.54
33
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender
6.27
2
Bartlomiej Kludka
Bartlomiej Kludka
Defender68'
6.48
80
Matej Rodin
Matej Rodin Defender
6.58
4
Bujar Pllana
Bujar Pllana
Defender46'
6.31
5
Ivan Zhelizko
Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder
7.1
8
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Aleksandar Cirkovic Midfielder
7.2
10
Rifet Kapic
Rifet Kapic (C) Midfielder
6.75
79
Kacper Sezonienko
Kacper Sezonienko Midfielder
6.4
21
Michal Glogowski
Michal Glogowski
Attacker73'
6.34
99
Tomasz Neugebauer
Tomasz Neugebauer Midfielder
6.94
17
Anton Tsarenko
Anton Tsarenko
Midfielder64'
7.22
90
Dawid Kurminowski
Dawid Kurminowski Attacker
6.2
7
Bogdan Viunnyk
Bogdan Viunnyk
Attacker64'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adrian Blad → Bartosz Nowak
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Damian Rasak → Sebastian Milewski
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Jakub Kokosiński → Ilya Shkurin
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Var
83'
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski → Mateusz Wdowiak
6th Substitution
76'
73'
Event
Michal Glogowski → Kacper Sezonienko
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Bartlomiej Kludka → Tomasz Wojtowicz
4th Substitution
Event
4th Yellowcard
64'
Event
Märten Kuusk
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
64'
Event
Anton Tsarenko → Tomasz Neugebauer
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Bogdan Viunnyk → Dawid Kurminowski
3rd Substitution
Event
Ilya Shkurin
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
51'
Event
Bujar Pllana
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
Event
Ivan Zhelizko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Bujar Pllana → Matej Rodin
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mateusz Wdowiak
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
39'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Katowice exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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