Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza Fri, 13 Mar - 7:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
1 – 1
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 7:30 PM
Maurides Roque Junior - 2'
Goal
|
Goal
Radovan Pankov - 7'

CONTEXT

The match between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa has finished, with the teams playing out a 1-1 draw. The game was already deadlocked at 1-1 at half-time, and neither side managed to find a winning breakthrough during the second half. Legia Warszawa entered the fixture as the stronger team, holding a 38% pre-match win probability compared to Radomiak Radom's 34.3% and a 27.7% chance of a draw. Because the match ended in a tie, the final result did not align with the pre-match market. This resulted in a significant deviation from expectations for Legia Warszawa, as the narrow favorites ultimately dropped points on the road. Despite being the slight underdogs, Radomiak Radom dictated the ball, commanding 58% of the possession to Legia Warszawa's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this contest, making it impossible to evaluate if the 1-1 outcome was consistent with the underlying offensive quality. However, the match's overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with expectations. Finally, the flow of the game was unhindered by disciplinary issues, as there were no red cards issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Legia Warszawa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
?. Kuźma
?. Kuźma
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
A. Wójcik
A. Wójcik
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
P. Lasyk
P. Lasyk
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
S. Kowalewski
S. Kowalewski
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Radomiak Radom G. Feio
G. Feio
VS
Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: 62 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
Nieciecza Rank: 53 D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 67 D
Korona Kielce Rank: 63 L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 71 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 61 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 66 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Katowice Rank: 63 D
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 D
Korona Kielce Rank: 63 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Radomiak Radom
34.3%
Draw
27.67%
Away Legia Warszawa
38.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.63
63.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
Power Score
59.63
63.01
League Position
7
14
Global Rank
459
372

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Radomiak Radom — Opponent-weighted form score
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Radomiak Radom Legia Warszawa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Radomiak Radom

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.26
34.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.52
15.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Radomiak Radom -1.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Legia Warszawa +1.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Radomiak Radom Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom Home
9 matches
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
0
Draws
0
5
Losses
4
Goals
14
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
14
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:11:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
F. Majchrowicz
Poland
1 F. Majchrowicz
Z. Ouattara
Ivory Coast
24 Z. Ouattara
S. Kingue
Cameroon
14 S. Kingue
A. Diéguez Grande
Spain
26 A. Diéguez Grande
J. Wilson-Esbrand
Substitution
England
3 J. Wilson-Esbrand
I. Camará
Substitution
Guinea
2 I. Camará
J. Grzesik
Poland
13 J. Grzesik
R. Silva Baró
Substitution
Portugal
6 R. Silva Baró
R. Wolski
Poland
27 (C) R. Wolski
L. Lima Linhares
Substitution
Brazil
82 L. Lima Linhares
M. Roque Junior
Substitution
Brazil
25 M. Roque Junior
O. Hindrich
Romania
89 O. Hindrich
R. Pankov
Serbia
12 R. Pankov
R. Augustyniak
Poland
8 (C) R. Augustyniak
K. Piątkowski
Poland
91 K. Piątkowski
P. Kun
Substitution
Poland
23 P. Kun
J. Elitim Sepúlveda
Colombia
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
W. Urbański
Substitution
Poland
53 W. Urbański
K. Chodyna
Substitution
Poland
11 K. Chodyna
R. Adamski
Poland
9 R. Adamski
V. Bichakhchyan
Substitution
Armenia
21 V. Bichakhchyan
M. Rajovic
Substitution
Denmark
29 M. Rajovic

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza
Capacity
5000
Attendance
13902
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Łukasz Kuźma
Arkadiusz Wójcik
Piotr Lasyk
S. Kowalewski

Statistics

Possession
Radomiak Radom
54%
Legia Warszawa
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 6
37 Dangerous attacks 50
58 Possession 42
3 Corners 7
19 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
18 Throwins 19
6 Goal Kicks 7
11 Dribble Attempts 12
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
5 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
89 Ball Safe 80
4 Goal Attempts 10
4 Injuries 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
85 Attacks 90

Possession

52 Long Passes 54
405 Passes 284
77 Successful Passes Percentage 70
310 Successful Passes 199
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
19 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

8 Interceptions 9
12 Tackles 12
5 Saves 0

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 20
1 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

14 Fouls 20
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Piotr Lasyk

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Majchrowicz
Filip Majchrowicz Goalkeeper
7.54
3
Josh Wilson-Esbrand
Josh Wilson-Esbrand Defender
6.43
7
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
Attacker80'
6.56
14
Steve Kingue
Steve Kingue Defender
6.25
24
Zié Ouattara
Zié Ouattara Defender
7.08
26
Adrián Diéguez
Adrián Diéguez Defender
6.52
2
Ibrahima Camará
Ibrahima Camará Midfielder
6.46
77
Christos Donis
Christos Donis
Midfielder65'
6.28
6
Romário Baró
Romário Baró Midfielder
6.3
28
Michal Kaput
Michal Kaput
Midfielder65'
6.57
13
Jan Grzesik
Jan Grzesik Midfielder
6.54
27
Rafal Wolski
Rafal Wolski (C) Midfielder
7.51
82
Luquinhas
Luquinhas Midfielder
6.49
21
Elves Baldé
Elves Baldé
Attacker46'
6.57
25
Maurides Roque Junior
Maurides Roque Junior Attacker
7.33
15
Abdoul Tapsoba
Abdoul Tapsoba
Attacker76'
6.62
Referee : Piotr Lasyk

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
6.38
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak (C) Defender
6.69
12
Radovan Pankov
Radovan Pankov Defender
7.74
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
6.59
11
Kacper Chodyna
Kacper Chodyna Midfielder
6.55
7
Pawel Wszolek
Pawel Wszolek
Midfielder80'
6.5
22
Juergen Elitim
Juergen Elitim Midfielder
7.86
23
Patryk Kun
Patryk Kun Midfielder
6.67
13
Arkadiusz Reca
Arkadiusz Reca
Defender80'
6.47
53
Wojciech Urbanski
Wojciech Urbanski Midfielder
6.44
44
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski
Midfielder74'
6.4
9
Rafal Adamski
Rafal Adamski Attacker
7.71
21
Vahan Bichakhchyan
Vahan Bichakhchyan Attacker
6.53
77
Ermal Krasniqi
Ermal Krasniqi
Attacker74'
6.51
29
Mileta Rajović
Mileta Rajović Attacker
6.62
18
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Attacker65'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Juergen Elitim
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes → Josh Wilson-Esbrand
8th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Pawel Wszolek → Kacper Chodyna
10th Substitution
80'
Event
Arkadiusz Reca → Patryk Kun
9th Substitution
Event
Abdoul Tapsoba → Maurides Roque Junior
7th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Damian Szymanski → Wojciech Urbanski
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Ermal Krasniqi → Vahan Bichakhchyan
5th Substitution
Event
Michal Kaput → Romário Baró
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Christos Donis → Ibrahima Camará
2nd Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Jean-Pierre Nsame → Mileta Rajović
4th Substitution
Event
Steve Kingue
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Romário Baró
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
56'
Event
Elves Baldé → Luquinhas
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
7'
Event
Radovan Pankov
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Maurides Roque Junior
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Legia Warszawa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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