Korona Kielce vs Nieciecza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Exbud Arena Sat, 7 Mar - 1:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
2 Winner 1
Nieciecza Nieciecza
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 1:45 PM
Marcel Pieczek - 43'
Konstantinos Sotiriou - 52'
Goal
|
Goal
Ivan Durdov - 58'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Korona Kielce 2–1 Nieciecza. The result saw Korona Kielce take the points. Korona Kielce showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 51%–49%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Korona Kielce showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Arys
K. Arys
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Arys
M. Arys
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Janawa
M. Janawa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Mariusz Myszka
Mariusz Myszka
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.27
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
VS
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.88
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Radomiak Radom Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: W
Wisła Płock Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: L
Górnik Zabrze Rank: D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Korona Kielce
57.1%
Draw
22.91%
Away Nieciecza
19.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.83
32.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Korona Kielce
Nieciecza
Power Score
45.83
32.43
League Position
8
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Korona Kielce Nieciecza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.22
40.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.31
24.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Korona Kielce -1.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Nieciecza +1.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Nieciecza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Korona Kielce Nieciecza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Nieciecza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Nieciecza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Home
1 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:03:27+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 01:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Exbud Arena
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Karol Arys
Marek Arys
Marcin Janawa
Mariusz Myszka

Statistics

Possession
Korona Kielce
52%
Nieciecza
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 8
47 Dangerous attacks 55
51 Possession 49
5 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 19
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 39
9 Goal Kicks 6
9 Successful Dribbles 7
18 Throwins 29
15 Dribble Attempts 18
4 Goal Attempts 2
1 Assists 1
60 Ball Safe 43
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

95 Attacks 88
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

293 Successful Passes 267
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
373 Passes 355
62 Long Passes 48
79 Successful Passes Percentage 75
9 Key Passes 7
25 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

14 Tackles 10
10 Interceptions 10
1 Saves 2

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 27
12 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

20 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mariusz Stepinski
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90+8'
Event
Hubert Zwozny → Wiktor Dlugosz
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Nono → Martin Remacle
8th Substitution
83'
77'
Event
Kamil Zapolnik → Radu Boboc
7th Substitution
Event
Stjepan Davidovic → Simon Gustafson
6th Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Jesús Jiménez → Andrzej Trubeha
5th Substitution
Event
Dawid Blanik → Antoñín
4th Substitution
64'
58'
Event
Ivan Durdov
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
56'
Event
Offside / Goal Disallowed
53'
Event
Morgan Faßbender → Sergio Guerrero
2nd Substitution
53'
Event
Krzysztof Kubica → Igor Strzalek
3rd Substitution
Event
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
52'
46'
Event
Artem Putivtsev → Milosz Matysik
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marcel Pieczek
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
43'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Korona Kielce exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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