Jagiellonia Białystok vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Sat, 14 Mar - 1:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
1 Winner 2
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 1:45 PM
Jesús Imaz - 82'
Goal
|
Goal
Hugo Vallejo - 21', 67'

CONTEXT

The match has concluded, with Piast Gliwice securing a 2-0 full-time victory over Jagiellonia Białystok. The visitors established their advantage early, taking a 1-0 lead into the halftime break before adding a second goal to seal the win. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of Piast Gliwice. Jagiellonia Białystok entered the fixture as the stronger team and clear favorite, holding a 51.5% market probability to win. Meanwhile, the draw sat at 25.8% and a Piast Gliwice victory was given just a 22.7% chance. Ultimately, the outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Jagiellonia Białystok controlled the ball, dominating possession with 64%, while the victorious away side managed only 36%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the underlying chance creation. However, the efficiency shift remained firmly in line with the match's conclusion. Finally, the game progressed without any major disciplinary disruptions or unexpected player advantages, as neither side received a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Piast Gliwice showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Kaszyński
B. Kaszyński
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
G. Kawałko
G. Kawałko
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
M. Szczerbowicz
M. Szczerbowicz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
J. Winkler
J. Winkler
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
VS
Piast Gliwice D. Myśliwiec
D. Myśliwiec
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.39
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 59 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 63 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 61 D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 63 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 57 W
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 64 L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 63 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 57 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 11 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Jagiellonia Białystok
51.5%
Draw
25.82%
Away Piast Gliwice
22.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.44
60.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Jagiellonia Białystok
Piast Gliwice
Power Score
63.44
60.43
League Position
3
12
Global Rank
355
440

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Piast Gliwice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jagiellonia Białystok Piast Gliwice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Piast Gliwice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.86
57.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
57.36
30.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Jagiellonia Białystok -2.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Piast Gliwice +2.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Piast Gliwice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Jagiellonia Białystok Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Piast Gliwice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Home
11 matches
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
6
Draws
6
2
Losses
3
Goals
12
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
12
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:48:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
N. Wojtuszek
Substitution
Poland
15 N. Wojtuszek
B. Cardoso Vital
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
Y. Kobayashi
Japan
4 Y. Kobayashi
G. Serrão Montóia
Portugal
23 G. Serrão Montóia
T. Romanczuk
Poland
6 (C) T. Romanczuk
D. Drachal
Substitution
Poland
8 D. Drachal
B. Wdowik
Substitution
Poland
27 B. Wdowik
J. Imaz Ballesté
Spain
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
K. Szmyt
Substitution
Poland
77 K. Szmyt
S. Baždar
Substitution
Serbia
14 S. Baždar
K. Szymanski
Poland
33 K. Szymanski
J. Lewicki
Poland
36 J. Lewicki
I. Drapiński
Poland
29 I. Drapiński
J. Rivas Margalef
Spain
5 J. Rivas Margalef
E. Twumasi
Substitution
Ghana
55 E. Twumasi
H. Vallejo Avilés
Spain
80 H. Vallejo Avilés
P. Dziczek
Poland
10 (C) P. Dziczek
G. Tomasiewicz
Substitution
Poland
20 G. Tomasiewicz
J. Eyenga-Lokilo
Substitution
DR Congo
98 J. Eyenga-Lokilo
J. Muñoz García
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Muñoz García
G. Barkovskiy
Substitution
Belarus
63 G. Barkovskiy

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 01:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion Miejski
Capacity
22372
Attendance
16580
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bartosz Kaszyński
Grzegorz Kawałko
Marcin Szczerbowicz
Jacub Winkler

Statistics

Possession
Jagiellonia Białystok
59%
Piast Gliwice
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
15 Shots 17
95 Dangerous attacks 73
64 Possession 36
7 Corners 7
15 Free kicks 6
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

10 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
1 Assists 2
29 Throwins 11
23 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
103 Ball Safe 75
0 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Successful Dribbles 6
13 Dribble Attempts 11
6 Goal Kicks 7

Attacking

128 Attacks 95

Possession

556 Passes 312
40 Long Passes 62
442 Successful Passes 219
0 Key Passes 1
18 Successful Long Passes 17
79 Successful Passes Percentage 70
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27

Defensive

8 Interceptions 14
4 Saves 4
11 Tackles 15

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 17
6 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

6 Fouls 12
5 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
7.02
4
Yuki Kobayashi
Yuki Kobayashi Defender
6.94
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
7.71
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
6.39
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo
Midfielder46'
6.51
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia Defender
6.79
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk (C) Midfielder
6.83
8
Dawid Drachal
Dawid Drachal Midfielder
6.64
86
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek
Midfielder55'
7.05
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Midfielder
7.31
27
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Bartlomiej Wdowik Midfielder
6.97
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel
Midfielder46'
6.59
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder
6.05
80
Zachary Zalewski
Zachary Zalewski
Midfielder79'
6.43
14
Samed Bazdar
Samed Bazdar Attacker
6.93
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu
Attacker55'
6.53
Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz

Starting XI ▼

33
Karol Szymanski
Karol Szymanski Goalkeeper
6.91
5
Juande Rivas
Juande Rivas Defender
6.94
29
Igor Drapinski
Igor Drapinski Defender
6.93
36
Jakub Lewicki
Jakub Lewicki Defender
7.08
55
Ema Twumasi
Ema Twumasi Defender
6.42
28
Filip Borowski
Filip Borowski
Defender46'
6.27
10
Patryk Dziczek
Patryk Dziczek (C) Midfielder
6.89
20
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz Midfielder
7.16
6
Michal Chrapek
Michal Chrapek
Midfielder75'
6.78
80
Hugo Vallejo
Hugo Vallejo Midfielder
2
8.72
98
Jason Lokilo
Jason Lokilo Midfielder
7.69
31
Oskar Lesniak
Oskar Lesniak
Midfielder59'
6.87
7
Jorge Félix
Jorge Félix Attacker
6.92
11
Leandro Sanca
Leandro Sanca
Midfielder59'
7.1
63
German Barkovskiy
German Barkovskiy Attacker
6.47
9
Adrián Dalmau
Adrián Dalmau
Attacker72'
6.44

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jesús Imaz
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
82'
Event
Zachary Zalewski → Kajetan Szmyt
10th Substitution
79'
75'
Event
Michal Chrapek → Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
9th Substitution
72'
Event
Adrián Dalmau → German Barkovskiy
8th Substitution
68'
Event
Jakub Lewicki
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Hugo Vallejo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Oskar Lesniak → Jason Lokilo
6th Substitution
59'
Event
Leandro Sanca → Jorge Félix
7th Substitution
Event
Bartosz Mazurek → Dawid Drachal
4th Substitution
55'
Event
Afimico Pululu → Samed Bazdar
5th Substitution
55'
53'
Event
Juande Rivas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Álex Pozo → Norbert Wojtuszek
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Matías Nahuel → Bartlomiej Wdowik
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Filip Borowski → Ema Twumasi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Dawid Drachal
Goal disallowed
36'
33'
Event
Igor Drapinski
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
Event
Hugo Vallejo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Piast Gliwice exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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