Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza Fri, 6 Mar - 2:11 PM
Ekstraklasa
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
3 Winner 1
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:11 PM
Rafal Wolski - 6'
Capita - 8'
Romário Baró - 77'
Goal
|
Goal
Dawid Gojny - 56'

CONTEXT

The match between Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia has officially finished, resulting in a 1-1 full-time draw. Curiously, Radomiak Radom had secured a 2-0 advantage by halftime, but the final scoreline ultimately settled into a deadlock. Pre-match expectations heavily favored the home side, with the market giving Radomiak Radom a solid 54% probability of victory, while a draw sat at 25.3% and an Arka Gdynia win at just 20.8%. Because Radomiak Radom was identified as the stronger team, dropping points represents a significant deviation of 74.7% from pre-match projections. Consequently, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match betting market. On the pitch, possession was closely contested. Arka Gdynia controlled a slight majority of the ball at 52%, compared to Radomiak Radom's 48%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were completely unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the draw was consistent with underlying chance creation. Nevertheless, the post-match efficiency shift was deemed in line with the drawn result. Finally, the match featured zero red cards for either side, ensuring that disciplinary dismissals did not artificially impact the flow or the unexpected final outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Radomiak Radom showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Karasewicz
A. Karasewicz
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Kosarzecki
M. Kosarzecki
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Łężny
S. Łężny
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Przybył
J. Przybył
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Radomiak Radom G. Feio
G. Feio
VS
Arka Gdynia D. Szwarga
D. Szwarga
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: W
Nieciecza Rank: D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Korona Kielce Rank: L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: D
Katowice Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Motor Lublin Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Radomiak Radom
54%
Draw
25.25%
Away Arka Gdynia
20.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
46.38
37.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Radomiak Radom
Arka Gdynia
Power Score
46.38
37.42
League Position
8
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Radomiak Radom — Opponent-weighted form score
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Radomiak Radom Arka Gdynia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Radomiak Radom

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.96
31.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.35
28.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Radomiak Radom -0.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Arka Gdynia +0.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Arka Gdynia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Radomiak Radom Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Arka Gdynia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom Home
2 matches
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:25:33+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:11 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adam Karasewicz
Maciej Kosarzecki
Szymon Łężny
Jarosław Przybył

Statistics

Possession
Radomiak Radom
49%
Arka Gdynia
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 3
38 Dangerous attacks 46
48 Possession 52
3 Corners 7
18 Free kicks 23
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

52 Ball Safe 71
10 Throwins 14
11 Goal Attempts 8
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Kicks 6
3 Successful Dribbles 6
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
5 Dribble Attempts 13
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

68 Attacks 56
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

7 Key Passes 6
342 Passes 365
77 Successful Passes Percentage 76
46 Long Passes 50
263 Successful Passes 276
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
19 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

6 Interceptions 9
7 Saves 2
12 Tackles 8

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 18
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
21 Fouls 18

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Leândro → Jan Grzesik
10th Substitution
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Aurélien Nguiamba
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Zié Ouattara
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
84'
82'
Event
Dawid Szwarga
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Edu Espiau → Vladislavs Gutkovskis
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Alassane Sidibe → Sebastian Kerk
9th Substitution
Event
Romário Baró
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
77'
Event
Romário Baró → Rafal Wolski
5th Substitution
75'
Event
João Pedro Reginaldo → Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Abdoul Tapsoba → Capita
7th Substitution
75'
63'
Event
Patryk Szysz → Nazariy Rusyn
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Dawid Gojny
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Steve Kingue
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
55'
Event
Rafal Wolski
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
46'
Event
Dawid Kocyla → Marc Navarro
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Nazariy Rusyn
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Dawid Gojny
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ibrahima Camará → Christos Donis
2nd Substitution
22'
11'
Event
Kamil Jakubczyk → Luis Perea
1st Substitution
Event
Capita
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
8'
Event
Rafal Wolski
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Radomiak Radom exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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