Raków Częstochowa vs Pogoń Szczecin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Raków Sun, 8 Mar - 4:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
2 Winner 0
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:30 PM
Jonatan Braut Brunes - 10'
Patryk Makuch - 73'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Hussein Ali 24'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Pogoń Szczecin. The result saw Raków Częstochowa take the points. Raków Częstochowa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 64%–36%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Raków Częstochowa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Mucha
S. Mucha
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Krasny
S. Krasny
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Kosarzecki
M. Kosarzecki
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Przybył
J. Przybył
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.06
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Raków Częstochowa ?. Tomczyk
?. Tomczyk
VS
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
1.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Nieciecza Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: D
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Widzew Lodz Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: W
Nieciecza Rank: D
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Raków Częstochowa
49.2%
Draw
26.52%
Away Pogoń Szczecin
24.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.39
43.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Raków Częstochowa
Pogoń Szczecin
Power Score
51.39
43.06
League Position
4
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Raków Częstochowa Pogoń Szczecin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.05
17.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.36
43.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Raków Częstochowa +2.42 Efficiency Index
vs
Pogoń Szczecin -2.42 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Pogoń Szczecin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Raków Częstochowa Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Pogoń Szczecin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Home
11 matches
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Away
Match Record
6
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
6
Goals
12
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
12
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:18:30+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion Raków
Capacity
11600
Attendance
5455
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sebastian Mucha
Sebastian Krasny
Maciej Kosarzecki
Jarosław Przybył

Statistics

Possession
Raków Częstochowa
62%
Pogoń Szczecin
38%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 3
91 Dangerous attacks 25
64 Possession 36
6 Corners 0
13 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

16 Throwins 14
14 Dribble Attempts 11
2 Assists 0
2 Goal Kicks 16
61 Ball Safe 71
8 Successful Dribbles 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
12 Goal Attempts 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

122 Attacks 76
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 75
554 Passes 321
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
37 Long Passes 56
23 Successful Long Passes 16
479 Successful Passes 241

Defensive

8 Interceptions 5
13 Tackles 13
1 Saves 4

Build-up

9 Accurate Crosses 0
24 Total Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Isak Brusberg → Jonatan Braut Brunes
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Paweł Dawidowicz → Oskar Repka
10th Substitution
81'
75'
Event
Jan Bieganski → Sam Greenwood
8th Substitution
Event
Patryk Makuch
Header / 2nd Goal
73'
70'
Event
Benjamin Mendy
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Patryk Makuch → Leonardo Rocha
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Adriano → Tomasz Pienko
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Marko Bulat → Ivi López
5th Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Léo Borges → M. Agger
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Filip Cuic → Karol Angielski
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Benjamin Mendy → Leonardo Koutris
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Danijel Loncar → José Pozo
1st Substitution
24'
Event
Hussein Ali
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
13'
Event
Hussein Ali
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Header / 1st Goal
10'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Raków Częstochowa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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