Cracovia Kraków vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach Sun, 12 Apr - 10:15 AM
Ekstraklasa
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków
2 – 2
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 10:15 AM
Round 28 Regular Season
Gabriel Charpentier - 24'
Mauro Perkovic - 53'
Goal
|
Goal
O. Kubiak - 29'
Vladislavs Gutkovskis - 48'

CONTEXT

The match between Cracovia Kraków and Arka Gdynia is now finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. Both sides were level at 1-1 by half-time, and the second period produced no further separation despite sustained attacking intent from either team. Pre-match assessments positioned Cracovia Kraków as clear favorites with a 50.8% expected share of the result, while a draw carried 27.8% and an away victory 21.4%. The actual outcome therefore marked a significant deviation, driven primarily by Arka Gdynia’s ability to claim a point away from home against the stronger projected side. Possession stayed remarkably balanced at 51% for the hosts and 49% for the visitors, with no red cards or major disciplinary events altering the flow. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns, yet the final score did not align with the pre-match projection. Without available xG data it is difficult to quantify chance quality, but the result underlined Arka’s capacity to frustrate expectations in a contest that ultimately rewarded both teams equally.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arka Gdynia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Arys
K. Arys
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
A. Wójcik
A. Wójcik
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
M. Arys
M. Arys
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Cracovia Kraków L. Elsner
L. Elsner
VS
Arka Gdynia D. Banasik
D. Banasik
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: L
Katowice Rank: W
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: L
Piast Gliwice Rank: L
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Korona Kielce Rank: L
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Radomiak Radom Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 7 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cracovia Kraków
50.82%
Draw
27.82%
Away Arka Gdynia
21.36%

Movement

Changes since opening
Cracovia Kraków
+45.86%
Draw
-63.6%
Arka Gdynia
+17.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.13
26.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cracovia Kraków
Arka Gdynia
Power Score
19.13
26.43
League Position
11
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cracovia Kraków — Opponent-weighted form score
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cracovia Kraków Arka Gdynia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cracovia Kraków

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cracovia Kraków ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.24
25.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.00
28.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cracovia Kraków +0.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Arka Gdynia -0.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cracovia Kraków
Arka Gdynia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cracovia Kraków ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cracovia Kraków Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cracovia Kraków Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cracovia Kraków
Arka Gdynia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cracovia Kraków
vs
Arka Gdynia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cracovia Kraków Arka Gdynia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cracovia Kraków 0.25
Arka Gdynia 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cracovia Kraków Arka Gdynia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cracovia Kraków 0.04
Arka Gdynia 0.04
Cracovia Kraków
Arka Gdynia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Cracovia Kraków had peak pressure around 25'.
  • Arka Gdynia started the game with stronger pressure.
Cracovia Kraków Pressure Arka Gdynia Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Cracovia Kraków reached the top pressure at 25' (72.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków Home
21 matches
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Away
Match Record
7
Wins
7
7
Draws
7
7
Losses
7
Goals
24
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
24
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:01:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Madejski
Poland
13 S. Madejski
D. Piła
Poland
79 D. Piła
O. Wójcik
Poland
66 O. Wójcik
G. Henriksson
Sweden
4 G. Henriksson
M. Perković
Substitution
Croatia
39 M. Perković
M. Klich
Poland
43 M. Klich
A. Al-Ammari
Sweden
6 A. Al-Ammari
P. Sans Lopez
Substitution
Spain
11 P. Sans Lopez
D. Kameri
Substitution
Austria
70 D. Kameri
A. Hasić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Hasić
G. Charpentier
Substitution
France
99 G. Charpentier
J. Grobelny
Poland
1 J. Grobelny
D. Gojny
Poland
94 D. Gojny
M. Marcjanik
Poland
29 M. Marcjanik
E. Gómez Hermoso
Spain
23 E. Gómez Hermoso
D. Zator
Canada
4 D. Zator
A. Nguiamba
Substitution
France
10 A. Nguiamba
K. Jakubczyk
Substitution
Poland
35 K. Jakubczyk
D. Kocyla
Substitution
Poland
11 D. Kocyla
S. Kerk
Germany
37 S. Kerk
Oskar Kubiak
Substitution
7 Oskar Kubiak
V. Gutkovskis
Substitution
Latvia
19 V. Gutkovskis

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 10:15 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach
Capacity
2118
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Karol Arys
Arkadiusz Wójcik
Marek Arys

Statistics

Possession
Cracovia Kraków
49%
Arka Gdynia
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
48 Dangerous attacks 45
51 Possession 49
5 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 20
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 10
5 Goal Kicks 8
21 Throwins 23
20 Dribble Attempts 13
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 77
2 Assists 2
69 Ball Safe 81
2 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

86 Attacks 104
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 76
14 Successful Long Passes 27
284 Successful Passes 267
50 Long Passes 61
28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
10 Key Passes 9
372 Passes 351

Defensive

1 Saves 5
13 Tackles 20
12 Interceptions 12

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 19
3 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

20 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Karol Arys

Starting XI ▼

13
Sebastian Madejski
Sebastian Madejski Goalkeeper
4
Gustav Henriksson
Gustav Henriksson Defender
39
Mauro Perkovic
Mauro Perkovic Defender
61
Brahim Traoré
Brahim Traoré
Defender82'
66
Oskar Wojcik
Oskar Wojcik Defender
79
Dominik Pila
Dominik Pila Defender
6
Amir Al-Ammari
Amir Al-Ammari Midfielder
11
Pau Sans
Pau Sans Midfielder
19
Mateusz Tabisz
Mateusz Tabisz
Midfielder81'
14
Ajdin Hasic
Ajdin Hasic Midfielder
43
Mateusz Klich
Mateusz Klich Midfielder
70
Dijon Kameri
Dijon Kameri Midfielder
10
Maxime Dominguez
Maxime Dominguez
Midfielder61'
99
Gabriel Charpentier
Gabriel Charpentier Attacker
7
Mateusz Praszelik
Mateusz Praszelik
Midfielder46'
Referee : Karol Arys

Starting XI ▼

1
Jedrzej Grobelny
Jedrzej Grobelny Goalkeeper
4
Dominick Zator
Dominick Zator Defender
23
Kike Hermoso
Kike Hermoso Defender
29
Michal Marcjanik
Michal Marcjanik Defender
94
Dawid Gojny
Dawid Gojny Defender
7
O. Kubiak
O. Kubiak Midfielder
31
Nazariy Rusyn
Nazariy Rusyn
Attacker73'
10
Aurélien Nguiamba
Aurélien Nguiamba Midfielder
6
Luis Perea
Luis Perea
Midfielder73'
11
Dawid Kocyla
Dawid Kocyla Midfielder
21
Patryk Szysz
Patryk Szysz
Midfielder61'
35
Kamil Jakubczyk
Kamil Jakubczyk Midfielder
22
Michal Rzuchowski
Michal Rzuchowski
Midfielder82'
37
Sebastian Kerk
Sebastian Kerk Midfielder
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Vladislavs Gutkovskis Attacker
99
Edu Espiau
Edu Espiau
Attacker82'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Brahim Traoré → Mauro Perkovic
9th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Edu Espiau → Vladislavs Gutkovskis
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Michal Rzuchowski → Kamil Jakubczyk
8th Substitution
Event
Mateusz Tabisz → Pau Sans
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Amir Al-Ammari
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
74'
73'
Event
Nazariy Rusyn → O. Kubiak
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Luis Perea → Aurélien Nguiamba
4th Substitution
Event
Maxime Dominguez → Dijon Kameri
2nd Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Patryk Szysz → Dawid Kocyla
3rd Substitution
Event
Mauro Perkovic
Header / 4th Goal
53'
48'
Event
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Mateusz Praszelik → Gabriel Charpentier
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
O. Kubiak
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Gabriel Charpentier
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arka Gdynia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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