CSKA Moskva vs Sochi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VEB Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 11:00 AM
Premier League
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva
0 Winner 1
Sochi Sochi
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 11:00 AM
Round 24 Regular Season
|
Goal
Martin Kramaric - 11' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between CSKA Moskva and Sochi is finished, with the full-time score 0-1 to the visitors. Sochi scored in the first half and held firm after the break to secure the points. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as CSKA Moskva were viewed as the stronger side yet could not find a way past Sochi's defense. The away team produced a disciplined performance that contradicted the pre-match projection, delivering an outcome that few had anticipated. Possession was heavily skewed toward the home side at 68 percent to Sochi's 32 percent, but CSKA generated no reward from their control of the ball. No expected goals data is available, so alignment with that metric cannot be determined. The efficiency shift remained in line with expectations across both teams, and no red cards occurred to alter the flow of play. In the end the victory aligned with the actual result on the pitch despite the clear pre-match lean toward CSKA.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sochi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Tsyganok
S. Tsyganok
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
M. Gavrilin
M. Gavrilin
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
A. Ermilov
A. Ermilov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
A. Mashlyakevich
A. Mashlyakevich
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
CSKA Moskva F. Celestini
F. Celestini
VS
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.33
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: L
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Sochi
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.18
8.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Moskva
Sochi
Power Score
22.18
8.01
League Position
5
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Moskva Sochi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

CSKA Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.37
41.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.41
35.37
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
CSKA Moskva -0.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Sochi +0.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Sochi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Moskva Sochi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Sochi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Sochi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
CSKA Moskva
vs
Sochi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
CSKA Moskva Sochi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
CSKA Moskva 0.34
Sochi 0.48
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Sochi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
CSKA Moskva 0.04
Sochi 0.00
CSKA Moskva
Sochi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Sochi had peak pressure around 8'.
  • Sochi started the game with stronger pressure.
CSKA Moskva Pressure Sochi Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Sochi reached the top pressure at 8' (85.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Home
11 matches
Sochi Sochi Away
Match Record
4
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
4
Goals
17
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
17
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:02:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
V. Torop
Russia
49 V. Torop
M. Gajić
Substitution
Serbia
22 M. Gajić
J. Da Silva Marcelino
Brazil
4 J. Da Silva Marcelino
K. Danilov
Russia
79 K. Danilov
D. Krugovoi
Russia
3 D. Krugovoi
D. Barinov
Substitution
Russia
6 D. Barinov
M. Kislyak
Russia
31 M. Kislyak
D. Kozlov
Substitution
Russia
18 D. Kozlov
I. Oblyakov
Russia
10 I. Oblyakov
K. Glebov
Substitution
Russia
17 K. Glebov
L. Gondou
Argentina
9 L. Gondou
A. Degtev
Russia
35 A. Degtev
V. Litvinov
Russia
4 V. Litvinov
M. Alves Santos
Brazil
33 M. Alves Santos
A. Soldatenkov
Russia
3 A. Soldatenkov
A. Makarchuk
Substitution
Russia
17 A. Makarchuk
A. Kovalenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Kovalenko
M. Mukhin
Russia
16 M. Mukhin
K. Zaika
Russia
27 K. Zaika
M. Ignatov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Ignatov
Z. Fedorov
Substitution
Russia
9 Z. Fedorov
M. Kramarič
Substitution
Slovenia
10 M. Kramarič

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
VEB Arena
Capacity
30457
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sergey Tsyganok
Maksim Gavrilin
Aleksey Ermilov
Aleksandr Mashlyakevich

Statistics

Possession
CSKA Moskva
63%
Sochi
37%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 6
61 Dangerous attacks 25
68 Possession 32
12 Corners 2
26 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0
26 Throwins 20
18 Successful Headers 14
4 Goal Kicks 12
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
12 Successful Dribbles 8
92 Ball Safe 83
20 Dribble Attempts 15
0 Penalties 2
4 Substitutions 5
21 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

121 Attacks 81

Possession

28 Successful Long Passes 21
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
53 Long Passes 66
447 Successful Passes 166
538 Passes 259
83 Successful Passes Percentage 64

Defensive

5 Saves 8
3 Interceptions 16
12 Tackles 16

Build-up

36 Total Crosses 10
7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

8 Fouls 26
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Tsyganok

Starting XI ▼

49
Vladislav Torop
Vladislav Torop Goalkeeper
3
Danil Krugovoy
Danil Krugovoy Defender
4
João Victor
João Victor Defender
22
Milan Gajić
Milan Gajić Defender
27
Moisés
Moisés
Defender78'
79
Kirill Danilov
Kirill Danilov Defender
6
Dmitri Barinov
Dmitri Barinov Midfielder
11
Tamerlan Musaev
Tamerlan Musaev
Attacker68'
10
Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov Midfielder
17
Kirill Glebov
Kirill Glebov Midfielder
97
Maksim Voronov
Maksim Voronov
Attacker87'
18
Danila Kozlov
Danila Kozlov Midfielder
37
Henrique Carmo
Henrique Carmo
Attacker46'
31
Matvey Kislyak
Matvey Kislyak Midfielder
9
Luciano Gondou
Luciano Gondou Attacker
Referee : Sergey Tsyganok

Starting XI ▼

35
Aleksandr Degtev
Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
3
A. Soldatenkov
A. Soldatenkov Defender
4
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
33
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves Defender
16
Maksim Mukhin
Maksim Mukhin Midfielder
17
Artem Makarchuk
Artem Makarchuk Midfielder
82
Sergey Volkov
Sergey Volkov
Defender46'
19
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko Midfielder
20
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Midfielder82'
27
Kirill Zaika
Kirill Zaika Midfielder
8
Mikhail Ignatov
Mikhail Ignatov Attacker
7
Anton Zinkovskiy
Anton Zinkovskiy
Midfielder69'
9
Zakhar Fedorov
Zakhar Fedorov Attacker
98
Vladimir Iljin
Vladimir Iljin
Attacker70'
10
Martin Kramaric
Martin Kramaric Attacker
23
Gustavo Furtado
Gustavo Furtado
Midfielder46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Maksim Voronov → Kirill Glebov
9th Substitution
87'
82'
Event
Dmitriy Vasiljev → A. Kovalenko
8th Substitution
Event
Moisés → Milan Gajić
7th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Gustavo Furtado
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Vladimir Iljin → Zakhar Fedorov
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Anton Zinkovskiy → Mikhail Ignatov
5th Substitution
Event
Tamerlan Musaev → Dmitri Barinov
4th Substitution
68'
62'
Event
Aleksandr Degtev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Event
A. Kovalenko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Henrique Carmo → Danila Kozlov
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Gustavo Furtado → Martin Kramaric
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Sergey Volkov → Artem Makarchuk
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
11'
Event
Martin Kramaric
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
9'
Event
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Penalty awarded

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sochi exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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