Falkirk vs Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Falkirk Community Stadium Sun, 12 Apr - 11:00 AM
Premiership
Falkirk Falkirk
3 Winner 6
Rangers RAN
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 11:00 AM
Round 33 Regular Season
Calvin Miller - 70' (P)
Finn Yeats - 26'
Ben Broggio - 6'
Goal
|
Goal
Bojan Miovski - 88', 58'
Youssef Chermiti - 74', 47'
Nicolas Raskin - 52'
Tochi Chukwuani - 42'

CONTEXT

The match between Falkirk and Rangers is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 3-6 in favor of Rangers. Despite Falkirk leading 2-1 at half-time, the visitors produced a strong second-half display to secure a convincing victory. Pre-match expectations heavily favored Rangers as the stronger side, and the result showed only minimal deviation from those projections. The outcome aligned closely with the pre-match projection, with the efficiency shift staying in line with expectations. Possession was remarkably balanced throughout, finishing at 51 percent for Falkirk and 49 percent for Rangers. No expected goals data was available to assess further alignment. No red cards were issued, and no major disciplinary events altered the flow of play. Rangers' clinical finishing ultimately proved decisive, confirming their status as clear pre-match favorites in a contest that followed the anticipated path with little surprise.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rangers showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Robertson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Spence

2nd Assistant

D. McFarlane

1st Assistant

P. Stuart

4th Official

Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
VS
Rangers D. Röhl
D. Röhl
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.32
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: W
St. Mirren Rank: L
Aberdeen Rank: D
Kilmarnock Rank: W
Hearts Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: W
Aberdeen Rank: W
St. Mirren Rank: W
Celtic Rank: D
Livingston Rank: D
Hearts Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Falkirk
0.32%
Draw
2.37%
Away Rangers
97.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.4
43.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Falkirk
Rangers
Power Score
23.4
43.73
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Falkirk Rangers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Falkirk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rangers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.10
47.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
47.14
20.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Falkirk -2.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Rangers +2.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Falkirk
Rangers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Falkirk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rangers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Falkirk Rangers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Falkirk Rangers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Falkirk
Rangers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Falkirk
vs
Rangers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Falkirk Rangers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Falkirk 0.11
Rangers 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Falkirk Rangers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Falkirk 0.10
Rangers 0.05
Falkirk
Rangers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAN had peak pressure around 44'.
  • Falkirk started the game with stronger pressure.
Falkirk Pressure RAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAN reached the top pressure at 44' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Falkirk Falkirk Home
17 matches
Rangers RAN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
12
4
Draws
4
12
Losses
1
Goals
13
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
13
-26
Goal Difference
+26

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:01:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Bain
Scotland
19 S. Bain
K. Adams
Scotland
2 K. Adams
C. Donaldson
Scotland
6 C. Donaldson
L. Henderson
Scotland
5 L. Henderson
F. Lissah
England
28 F. Lissah
B. Spencer
Scotland
8 B. Spencer
D. Tait
Substitution
Scotland
21 D. Tait
B. Broggio
Substitution
England
11 B. Broggio
F. Yeats
Substitution
Scotland
14 F. Yeats
C. Miller
Substitution
Scotland
29 C. Miller
B. Stewart
16 B. Stewart
Pitch
J. Butland
England
1 J. Butland
J. Meghoma
Substitution
England
30 J. Meghoma
E. Fernandez
England
37 E. Fernandez
N. Djiga
Burkina Faso
24 N. Djiga
J. Tavernier
England
2 J. Tavernier
T. Chukwuani
Substitution
Denmark
42 T. Chukwuani
N. Raskin
Belgium
43 N. Raskin
M. Moore
Substitution
England
47 M. Moore
T. Aasgaard
Substitution
Norway
11 T. Aasgaard
D. Gassama
Substitution
France
23 D. Gassama
Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Portugal
9 Y. Ramalho Chermiti

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 12, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Falkirk Community Stadium
Capacity :
7937
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Calum Spence
Don Robertson
Daniel McFarlane
Peter Stuart

Statistics

Possession
Falkirk
51%
RAN
49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 6
2 Big Chances Created 7
3 Shots 2
65 Dangerous attacks 62
51 Possession 49
2 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 1
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
1 Assists 4
7 Successful Dribbles 8
6 Goal Kicks 9
10 Successful Headers 12
23 Throwins 22
18 Dribble Attempts 23
0 Hit Woodwork 1
6 Goal Attempts 14
82 Ball Safe 80

Attacking

93 Attacks 88
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

375 Passes 353
37 Successful Long Passes 20
87 Long Passes 48
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
284 Successful Passes 266
5 Key Passes 16
76 Successful Passes Percentage 75

Defensive

26 Tackles 24
3 Saves 0
13 Interceptions 5

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 13
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

16 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

19
Scott Bain
Scott Bain Goalkeeper
2
Keelan Adams
Keelan Adams Defender
5
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Defender
6
Coll Donaldson
Coll Donaldson Defender
28
Filip Lissah
Filip Lissah Defender
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer Midfielder
11
Ben Broggio
Ben Broggio Midfielder
27
Ben Parkinson
Ben Parkinson
Attacker70'
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Midfielder
22
Kyrell Wilson
Kyrell Wilson
Attacker71'
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait Midfielder
23
Ethan Ross
Ethan Ross
Attacker81'
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
17
Henry Cartwright
Henry Cartwright
Midfielder81'
16
Barney Stewart
Barney Stewart Attacker
Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

1
Jack Butland
Jack Butland Goalkeeper
2
James Tavernier
James Tavernier Defender
24
Nasser Djiga
Nasser Djiga Defender
30
Jayden Meghoma
Jayden Meghoma Defender
3
Max Aarons
Max Aarons
Defender71'
37
Emmanuel Fernandez
Emmanuel Fernandez Defender
11
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard Midfielder
8
Connor Barron
Connor Barron
Midfielder77'
23
Djeidi Gassama
Djeidi Gassama Midfielder
18
Oliver Antman
Oliver Antman
Attacker85'
42
Tochi Chukwuani
Tochi Chukwuani Midfielder
10
Mohamed Diomandé
Mohamed Diomandé
Midfielder85'
43
Nicolas Raskin
Nicolas Raskin Midfielder
47
Mikey Moore
Mikey Moore Midfielder
28
Bojan Miovski
Bojan Miovski
Attacker46'
2
9
Youssef Chermiti
Youssef Chermiti Attacker
2

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Bojan Miovski
Left foot shot / 8th Goal
85'
Event
Oliver Antman → Djeidi Gassama
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Mohamed Diomandé → Tochi Chukwuani
9th Substitution
Event
Henry Cartwright → Calvin Miller
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Ethan Ross → Dylan Tait
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Coll Donaldson
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Dylan Tait
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
80'
80'
Event
Nicolas Raskin
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Connor Barron → Thelo Aasgaard
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Youssef Chermiti
Right foot shot / 7th Goal
72'
Event
Max Aarons
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Kyrell Wilson → Finn Yeats
4th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Max Aarons → Jayden Meghoma
3rd Substitution
Event
Calvin Miller
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
70'
Event
Ben Parkinson → Ben Broggio
2nd Substitution
70'
68'
Event
James Tavernier
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Bojan Miovski
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
52'
Event
Nicolas Raskin
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
47'
Event
Youssef Chermiti
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
46'
Event
Bojan Miovski → Mikey Moore
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Tochi Chukwuani
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Liam Henderson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
32'
Event
Jayden Meghoma
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Finn Yeats
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
26'
Event
Ben Broggio
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

Match Commentary

88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Bojan Miovski scores for Rangers in the 88th minute.
85
Substitution Substitution
Oliver Antman is substituted for Rangers in the 85th minute.
85
Substitution Substitution
Mohammed Diomande is substituted for Rangers in the 85th minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Henry Cartwright is substituted for Falkirk in the 81st minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Ethan Ross is substituted for Falkirk in the 81st minute.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Coll Donaldson of Falkirk receives a yellow card in the 80th minute.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dylan Tait of Falkirk receives a yellow card in the 80th minute.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolas Raskin of Rangers receives a yellow card in the 80th minute.
77
Substitution Substitution
Connor Barron is substituted for Rangers in the 77th minute.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Youssef Chermiti scores for Rangers in the 74th minute.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Max Aarons of Rangers receives a yellow card in the 72nd minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Max Aarons is substituted for Rangers in the 71st minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Kyrell Wilson is substituted for Falkirk in the 71st minute.
70
Update Update
Calvin Miller scores a penalty for Falkirk in the 70th minute.
70
Substitution Substitution
Ben Parkinson is substituted for Falkirk in the 70th minute.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Tavernier of Rangers receives a yellow card in the 68th minute.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Bojan Miovski scores for Rangers in the 58th minute.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Nicolas Raskin scores for Rangers at the 52nd minute.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Youssef Chermiti scores for Rangers in the 47th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Bojan Miovski is substituted for Rangers in the 45th minute.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Tochi Phil Chukwuani scores for Rangers at the 42nd minute.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Henderson from Falkirk receives a yellow card in the 41st minute.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jayden Meghoma of Rangers receives a yellow card in the 32nd minute.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Finn Yeats scores for Falkirk in the 26th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rangers exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Falkirk vs Rangers preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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