Granada vs Cultural Leonesa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes Sun, 12 Apr - 12:00 PM
La Liga 2
Granada GRA
1 Winner 0
Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Rubén Alcaraz - 5' (P)
Goal
|
Baïla Diallo 64' Red Card
Jorge Pascual 90+1' Red Card
|
Second yellow card Víctor García 68'

CONTEXT

The match between Granada and Cultural Leonesa is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to the home side. Granada entered the fixture as narrow favorites with a 51.3 percent implied chance of victory, compared to 27.9 percent for the draw and 20.8 percent for an away win. The result represented a significant deviation for Granada, who claimed a narrower-than-expected victory despite being the stronger team overall. Possession was closely contested at 47 percent for Granada and 53 percent for Cultural Leonesa, while expected goals data was unavailable. The contest was shaped by multiple red cards, with Granada receiving two and their visitors one. This red-card distortion in the second half created numerical imbalances that heavily influenced the flow of play. Efficiency remained in line with expectations throughout. The outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match projection, as Granada converted their first-half lead into a win even after the dismissals disrupted both teams.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Granada showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Ojaos Valera
A. Ojaos Valera
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
C. García Andreu
C. García Andreu
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
B. Jiménez Contreras
B. Jiménez Contreras
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
V. Broncano Suárez
V. Broncano Suárez
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Granada J. Rojo Martín
J. Rojo Martín
VS
Cultural Leonesa R. De La Barrera Fernández
R. De La Barrera Fernández
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: L
Las Palmas Rank: L
Huesca Rank: W
Real Sociedad II Rank: W
FC Andorra Rank: D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Valladolid Rank: W
Huesca Rank: D
FC Andorra Rank: L
Castellón Rank: D
Racing Santander Rank: L
Almería Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Granada
51.27%
Draw
27.94%
Away Cultural Leonesa
20.79%

Movement

Changes since opening
Granada
-43.45%
Draw
+22.85%
Cultural Leonesa
+20.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.16
17.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Granada
Cultural Leonesa
Power Score
27.16
17.63
League Position
13
22
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Granada — Opponent-weighted form score
Cultural Leonesa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Granada Cultural Leonesa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Granada

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cultural Leonesa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Granada ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cultural Leonesa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.23
19.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.91
27.23
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Granada +0.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Cultural Leonesa -0.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Granada
Cultural Leonesa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Granada ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cultural Leonesa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Granada Cultural Leonesa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Granada Cultural Leonesa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Granada
Cultural Leonesa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Granada
vs
Cultural Leonesa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Granada Cultural Leonesa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Granada 0.31
Cultural Leonesa 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Granada Cultural Leonesa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Granada 0.00
Cultural Leonesa 0.03
Granada
Cultural Leonesa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GRA had peak pressure around 33'.
  • GRA started the game with stronger pressure.
GRA Pressure Cultural Leonesa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GRA reached the top pressure at 33' (99.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Granada GRA Home
4 matches
Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
7
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:03:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Zidane
France
1 L. Zidane
O. Naasei Oppong
Ghana
28 O. Naasei Oppong
B. Diaby
Substitution
Spain
17 B. Diaby
L. Ntambue Kayumba
Spain
24 L. Ntambue Kayumba
B. Diallo
Senegal
22 B. Diallo
P. Serra
Spain
8 P. Serra
R. Alcaraz Jiménez
Spain
4 R. Alcaraz Jiménez
I. González Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
41 I. González Muñoz
P. Saenz Ezquerra
Substitution
Spain
21 P. Saenz Ezquerra
J. Arnáiz Díaz
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Arnáiz Díaz
A. Sola López Ocaña
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Sola López Ocaña
E. Badía Guardiola
Spain
13 E. Badía Guardiola
R. Hinojo Estrada
Spain
21 R. Hinojo Estrada
M. Barzic Gutiérrez
Substitution
Spain
36 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
R. Suárez Marcos
Spain
4 R. Suárez Marcos
V. García Hernández
Venezuela
24 V. García Hernández
P. González Rey
Substitution
Spain
8 P. González Rey
J. Fernández Abruñedo
Spain
14 J. Fernández Abruñedo
H. Ahmed
Substitution
Qatar
12 H. Ahmed
L. Rodríguez Chacón
Spain
10 L. Rodríguez Chacón
I. Calero Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
17 I. Calero Ruiz
D. Collado Raya
Substitution
Spain
7 D. Collado Raya

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
Capacity
19189
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro Ojaos Valera
Christian García Andreu
Borja Jiménez Contreras
Víctor Manuel Broncano Suárez

Statistics

Possession
GRA
49%
Cultural Leonesa
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 5
36 Dangerous attacks 31
47 Possession 53
4 Corners 3
17 Free kicks 13
5 Yellow Cards 4
2 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 4
17 Throwins 17
5 Goal Kicks 7
5 Successful Dribbles 4
8 Dribble Attempts 11
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
1 Hit Woodwork 0
73 Ball Safe 70
9 Goal Attempts 8
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

67 Attacks 90
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

62 Long Passes 57
27 Successful Long Passes 27
80 Successful Passes Percentage 79
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
348 Passes 390
7 Key Passes 8
280 Successful Passes 310

Defensive

11 Tackles 9
3 Saves 4
8 Interceptions 2

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 14
7 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Ojaos Valera

Starting XI ▼

1
Luca Zidane
Luca Zidane Goalkeeper
17
Bambo Diaby
Bambo Diaby Defender
18
Álvaro Lemos
Álvaro Lemos
Defender46'
22
Baïla Diallo
Baïla Diallo Defender
24
Loïc Williams
Loïc Williams Defender
28
Oscar Naasei Oppong
Oscar Naasei Oppong Defender
4
Rubén Alcaraz
Rubén Alcaraz Midfielder
8
Pedro Alemañ Serna
Pedro Alemañ Serna Midfielder
41
Izan González
Izan González Midfielder
3
Diego Hormigo
Diego Hormigo
Defender70'
7
Álex Sola
Álex Sola Attacker
19
Jorge Pascual
Jorge Pascual
Attacker60'
11
José Manuel Arnáiz
José Manuel Arnáiz Attacker
14
Manu Trigueros
Manu Trigueros
Midfielder79'
21
Pablo Sáenz
Pablo Sáenz Attacker
20
Sergio Ruiz
Sergio Ruiz
Midfielder78'
Referee : Alejandro Ojaos Valera

Starting XI ▼

13
Edgar Badia
Edgar Badia Goalkeeper
4
Rodri Suárez
Rodri Suárez Defender
21
Roger Hinojo
Roger Hinojo Defender
24
Víctor García
Víctor García Defender
36
Matia Barzic
Matia Barzic Defender
23
Selu Diallo
Selu Diallo
Midfielder75'
8
Yayo González
Yayo González Midfielder
19
Rubén Sobrino
Rubén Sobrino
Attacker58'
10
Luis Chacón
Luis Chacón Midfielder
12
Homam Al-Amin
Homam Al-Amin Midfielder
11
Víctor Moreno
Víctor Moreno
Midfielder58'
14
Bicho
Bicho Midfielder
17
Iván Calero
Iván Calero Midfielder
9
Manu Justo
Manu Justo
Attacker82'
7
Diego Collado
Diego Collado Attacker
5
Quique Fornos
Quique Fornos
Defender58'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jorge Pascual
Argument / 2nd Redcard
90+1'
Event
Sergio Ruiz
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
87'
82'
Event
Manu Justo → Iván Calero
10th Substitution
Event
Manu Trigueros → José Manuel Arnáiz
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Álvaro Lemos
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Sergio Ruiz → Pablo Sáenz
8th Substitution
78'
75'
Event
Selu Diallo → Matia Barzic
7th Substitution
Event
Diego Hormigo → Izan González
6th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Víctor García
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Baïla Diallo
Foul / 1st Redcard
64'
Event
Jorge Pascual → Álex Sola
5th Substitution
60'
58'
Event
Quique Fornos → Diego Collado
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Víctor Moreno → Homam Al-Amin
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Rubén Sobrino → Yayo González
4th Substitution
Event
Álvaro Lemos → Bambo Diaby
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Loïc Williams
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
45+1'
45+1'
Event
Diego Collado
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Bambo Diaby
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Manu Lama
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
19'
19'
Event
Yayo González
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Rubén Alcaraz
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
5'
4'
Event
Víctor García
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Granada exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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