Sturm Graz vs Hartberg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 12:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Sturm Graz STU
0 – 0
Hartberg HTB
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 4 Championship Round

CONTEXT

The match between Sturm Graz and Hartberg is finished, ending in a full-time score of 0-0. Pre-match expectations pointed strongly toward a Sturm Graz victory, with forecasts assigning them a 59.3 percent likelihood of winning against only 22.9 percent for a draw. The actual result marked a significant deviation from those projections, especially for Sturm Graz, who entered as the stronger side but were held to a stalemate. This outcome did not align with the pre-match projection. Sturm Graz dominated possession at 61 percent to Hartberg’s 39 percent, yet neither team managed to score. No xG data is available to evaluate chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the score remained even from half-time through the final whistle. No red cards were shown, and no major disruptive events altered the flow of play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Greinecker
M. Greinecker
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
I. Simsek
I. Simsek
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
R. Riedel
R. Riedel
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
M. Undesser
M. Undesser
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.14
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
VS
Hartberg M. Schmid
M. Schmid
1.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Rapid Rank: W
Salzburg Rank: D
Austria Wien Rank: W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg Rank: L
Austria Wien Rank: L
LASK Linz Rank: D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: D
Salzburg Rank: D
Grazer AK Rank: W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sturm Graz
59.3%
Draw
22.9%
Away Hartberg
17.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sturm Graz
+53.82%
Draw
-68.41%
Hartberg
+14.59%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.02
21.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
Hartberg
Power Score
28.02
21.23
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sturm Graz Hartberg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hartberg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hartberg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.61
48.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
48.21
43.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sturm Graz -0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Hartberg +0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Hartberg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sturm Graz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hartberg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sturm Graz Hartberg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sturm Graz Hartberg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Hartberg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sturm Graz
vs
Hartberg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sturm Graz Hartberg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sturm Graz 0.46
Hartberg 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sturm Graz Hartberg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sturm Graz 0.00
Hartberg 0.00
Sturm Graz
Hartberg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STU had peak pressure around 90'.
  • STU started the game with stronger pressure.
STU Pressure HTB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STU reached the top pressure at 90' (76.89).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sturm Graz STU Home
20 matches
Hartberg HTB Away
Match Record
12
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
12
Goals
32
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
32
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
D. Khudyakov
Russia
53 D. Khudyakov
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
J. Mitchell
Costa Rica
2 J. Mitchell
P. Koller
Austria
30 P. Koller
J. Gazibegovic
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 J. Gazibegovic
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Slovenia
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
L. Weinhandl
Substitution
Austria
39 L. Weinhandl
J. Hödl
Austria
43 J. Hödl
G. Mamageishvili
Substitution
Georgia
15 G. Mamageishvili
O. Kiteishvili
Georgia
10 O. Kiteishvili
S. Jatta
Substitution
Norway
20 S. Jatta
A. Helac
Austria
1 A. Helac
H. Coulibaly
Spain
6 H. Coulibaly
F. Wilfinger
Austria
18 F. Wilfinger
K. Schopp
Substitution
Austria
27 K. Schopp
L. Pazourek
Austria
2 L. Pazourek
B. Markuš
Slovenia
4 B. Markuš
T. Kainz
Austria
23 T. Kainz
J. Heil
Substitution
Austria
28 J. Heil
E. Havel
Substitution
Austria
7 E. Havel
L. Fridrikas
Substitution
Austria
30 L. Fridrikas
C. Hoffmann
Substitution
Germany
22 C. Hoffmann

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 4 · Championship Round
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Markus Greinecker
Isa Simsek
Roland Riedel
Manuel Undesser

Statistics

Possession
STU
58%
HTB
42%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 0
24 Shots 17
52 Dangerous attacks 36
61 Possession 39
5 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 15
1 Hit Woodwork 0
34 Throwins 19
18 Dribble Attempts 14
6 Successful Dribbles 6
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
4 Substitutions 5
97 Ball Safe 109
0 Injuries 2
11 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

132 Attacks 76
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

363 Successful Passes 188
81 Successful Passes Percentage 67
447 Passes 280
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
20 Successful Long Passes 28
19 Key Passes 11
41 Long Passes 71

Defensive

1 Saves 1
9 Interceptions 9
23 Tackles 22

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Isa Simsek

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller Defender
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic Midfielder
25
Stefan Hierländer
Stefan Hierländer
Midfielder90+2'
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso
Midfielder60'
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Attacker
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Attacker
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone
Attacker60'
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
9
Rory Wilson
Rory Wilson
Attacker86'
Referee : Isa Simsek

Starting XI ▼

1
Ammar Helac
Ammar Helac Goalkeeper
6
Habib Coulibaly
Habib Coulibaly Defender
18
Fabian Wilfinger
Fabian Wilfinger Defender
27
Konstantin Schopp
Konstantin Schopp Defender
8
Julian Halwachs
Julian Halwachs
Midfielder90'
2
Luca Pazourek
Luca Pazourek Midfielder
4
Benjamin Markus
Benjamin Markus Midfielder
23
Tobias Kainz
Tobias Kainz Midfielder
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Midfielder
33
Maximilian Hennig
Maximilian Hennig
Defender77'
7
Elias Havel
Elias Havel Attacker
95
Damjan Kovacevic
Damjan Kovacevic
Defender90'
22
Marco Hoffmann
Marco Hoffmann Attacker
61
Musibau Aziz
Musibau Aziz
Attacker64'
30
Lukas Fridrikas
Lukas Fridrikas Attacker
5
Youba Diarra
Youba Diarra
Midfielder90'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Stefan Hierländer → Jusuf Gazibegovic
9th Substitution
90+2'
90'
Event
Youba Diarra → Lukas Fridrikas
6th Substitution
90'
Event
Julian Halwachs → Konstantin Schopp
7th Substitution
90'
Event
Damjan Kovacevic → Elias Havel
8th Substitution
Event
Rory Wilson → Seedy Jatta
5th Substitution
86'
Event
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
82'
82'
Event
Habib Coulibaly
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Maximilian Hennig → Jürgen Heil
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Var
67'
Event
Tobias Kainz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Musibau Aziz → Marco Hoffmann
3rd Substitution
Event
Ryan Fosso → Luca Weinhandl
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Maurice Malone → Gizo Mamageishvili
2nd Substitution
60'
1ST-HALF
Event
Albert Vallci
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sturm Graz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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