Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Lerkendal Stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 12:30 PM
Eliteserien
Rosenborg Rosenborg
2 Winner 1
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
Mads Bomholt - 33'
Simen Bolkan Nordli - 51'
Goal
|
Goal
Aimar Sher - 5'

CONTEXT

The match between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 is finished, ending 2-0 to the home side at full time after the teams had been level at 1-1 approaching the break. Rosenborg controlled possession with 57 percent against Sarpsborg 08’s 43 percent, though expected goals data was unavailable to measure chance quality. Pre-match expectations pointed strongly toward a Rosenborg success, and the result showed only minimal deviation from that view, with the home team delivering the projected victory. Sarpsborg 08 had been regarded as the stronger side overall, yet Rosenborg’s performance stayed in line with efficiency expectations and produced a clean-sheet win without requiring any second-half adjustments. No red cards were shown, and the outcome aligned fully with the pre-match projection. The victory confirmed Rosenborg’s ability to capitalize on their territorial edge after the interval, turning a tied halftime score into a comfortable final margin.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rosenborg showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Moen
C. Moen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
E. Hareland
E. Hareland
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
I. Tariq
I. Tariq
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Rosenborg A. Johansson
A. Johansson
VS
Sarpsborg 08 E. Sel
E. Sel
0.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.63
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tromsø Rank: L
Vålerenga Rank: L
Molde Rank: L
Strømsgodset Rank: W
Tromsø Rank: L
Vålerenga Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Start Rank: D
Sandefjord Rank: W
Molde Rank: W
Bryne Rank: W
Fredrikstad Rank: L
Tromsø Rank: L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 7 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rosenborg
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away Sarpsborg 08
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.1
26.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08
Power Score
17.1
26.24
League Position
13
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rosenborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rosenborg Sarpsborg 08

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rosenborg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rosenborg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sarpsborg 08
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.12
36.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.40
29.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rosenborg -0.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Sarpsborg 08 +0.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rosenborg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sarpsborg 08
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rosenborg Sarpsborg 08
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rosenborg Sarpsborg 08
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rosenborg
vs
Sarpsborg 08
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rosenborg Sarpsborg 08
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rosenborg 0.27
Sarpsborg 08 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rosenborg Sarpsborg 08
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rosenborg 0.02
Sarpsborg 08 0.04
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Sarpsborg 08 had peak pressure around 82'.
  • Sarpsborg 08 started the game with stronger pressure.
Rosenborg Pressure Sarpsborg 08 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Sarpsborg 08 reached the top pressure at 82' (61.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 28 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rosenborg Rosenborg Home
28 matches
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Away
Match Record
14
Wins
7
7
Draws
7
7
Losses
14
Goals
60
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
60
+19
Goal Difference
-19
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:03:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
L. Wahlstedt
Sweden
1 L. Wahlstedt
J. Søgaard Mortensen
Substitution
Denmark
15 J. Søgaard Mortensen
H. Røsten
Norway
2 H. Røsten
T. Nemčík
Substitution
Slovakia
21 T. Nemčík
T. Solheim Dahl
Substitution
Norway
3 T. Solheim Dahl
S. Nordli
Substitution
Norway
7 S. Nordli
O. Selnæs
Norway
10 O. Selnæs
I. Fossum
Norway
8 I. Fossum
E. Ceide
Norway
35 E. Ceide
M. Bomholt
Denmark
17 M. Bomholt
A. Chiakha
Substitution
Denmark
18 A. Chiakha
M. Ndiaye
Senegal
1 M. Ndiaye
A. Hiim
Norway
21 A. Hiim
S. Rosted
Norway
24 S. Rosted
B. Utvik
Norway
4 B. Utvik
C. Niyukuri
Substitution
Norway
12 C. Niyukuri
M. Opoku
Substitution
15 M. Opoku
V. Halvorsen
Substitution
Norway
22 V. Halvorsen
A. Sher
Sweden
6 A. Sher
S. Sørli
Norway
10 S. Sørli
D. Seland Karlsbakk
Norway
11 D. Seland Karlsbakk
A. Hansen
Substitution
Denmark
33 A. Hansen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Lerkendal Stadion
Capacity
21421
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Christian Moen
Erland Hareland
Imran Tariq

Statistics

Possession
Rosenborg
56%
Sarpsborg 08
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 5
52 Dangerous attacks 53
57 Possession 43
7 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 8
24 Throwins 31
17 Dribble Attempts 13
2 Assists 1
8 Goal Kicks 9
10 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 4
7 Successful Dribbles 1
100 Ball Safe 104
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

117 Attacks 86
5 Counter Attacks 3

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 20
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
395 Successful Passes 275
514 Passes 386
77 Successful Passes Percentage 71
66 Long Passes 64
9 Key Passes 9

Defensive

8 Interceptions 12
3 Saves 4
22 Tackles 17

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Christian Moen

Starting XI ▼

1
Leopold Wahlstedt
Leopold Wahlstedt Goalkeeper
2
Håkon Røsten
Håkon Røsten Defender
3
Tobias Solheim Dahl
Tobias Solheim Dahl Defender
14
Jesper Reitan-Sunde
Jesper Reitan-Sunde
Attacker77'
15
Jonas Mortensen
Jonas Mortensen Defender
22
Jonas Svensson
Jonas Svensson
Defender81'
21
Tomas Nemcik
Tomas Nemcik Defender
6
Santeri Väänänen
Santeri Väänänen
Midfielder81'
7
Simen Bolkan Nordli
Simen Bolkan Nordli Midfielder
19
Adrian Pereira
Adrian Pereira
Defender60'
8
Iver Fossum
Iver Fossum Midfielder
10
Ole Selnæs
Ole Selnæs Midfielder
35
Emil Konradsen Ceide
Emil Konradsen Ceide Midfielder
17
Mads Bomholt
Mads Bomholt Attacker
18
Amin Chiakha
Amin Chiakha Attacker
9
Dino Islamovic
Dino Islamovic
Attacker81'
Referee : Christian Moen

Starting XI ▼

1
Mamour Ndiaye
Mamour Ndiaye Goalkeeper
4
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Bjørn Inge Utvik Defender
12
Claus Niyukuri
Claus Niyukuri Defender
32
Eirik Wichne
Eirik Wichne
Defender77'
21
Anders Hiim
Anders Hiim Defender
24
Sigurd Rosted
Sigurd Rosted Defender
6
Aimar Sher
Aimar Sher Midfielder
10
Sondre Sörli
Sondre Sörli Midfielder
15
M. Opoku
M. Opoku Midfielder
17
Noa Williams
Noa Williams
Midfielder69'
22
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen Midfielder
8
Sander Christiansen
Sander Christiansen
Midfielder64'
11
Daniel Karlsbakk
Daniel Karlsbakk Attacker
33
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Attacker
18
Bop Guèye
Bop Guèye
Midfielder77'

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Daniel Karlsbakk
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Jonas Svensson → Jonas Mortensen
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Dino Islamovic → Amin Chiakha
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Santeri Väänänen → Tomas Nemcik
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Jonas Mortensen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Jesper Reitan-Sunde → Tobias Solheim Dahl
5th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Bop Guèye → Andreas Hansen
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Eirik Wichne → Claus Niyukuri
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Noa Williams → M. Opoku
3rd Substitution
Event
Ole Selnæs
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
67'
64'
Event
Sander Christiansen → Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
2nd Substitution
Event
Adrian Pereira → Simen Bolkan Nordli
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Simen Bolkan Nordli
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
51'
1ST-HALF
Event
Mads Bomholt
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
33'
Event
Mads Bomholt
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
5'
Event
Aimar Sher
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rosenborg exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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