Zorya Luhansk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky (Kyjiv (Kiev)) Sun, 12 Apr - 12:30 PM
Premier League
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
1 Winner 0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 23 Regular Season
Jordan - 33'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Zorya Luhansk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is finished, with the full-time score 1-0 to the home side. Zorya Luhansk scored in the first half and defended resolutely after the break to secure the win, despite Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being regarded as the stronger team beforehand. Pre-match expectations pointed toward a tight contest, yet the outcome delivered a significant deviation in favor of Zorya Luhansk. The result aligned with the pre-match projection while the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations. Possession was shared fairly evenly, Zorya Luhansk recording 47 percent and their opponents 53 percent. No xG data was available to assess alignment on that metric, and the game passed without red cards or other disruptive events that might have altered the balance. Zorya’s clinical first-half finish ultimately proved the difference in a match where efficiency metrics reflected steady rather than dramatic change.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zorya Luhansk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Nyzhnyk
V. Nyzhnyk
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
A. Mykhaylyuk
A. Mykhaylyuk
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
S. Shlonchak
S. Shlonchak
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
O. Tytov
O. Tytov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Zorya Luhansk V. Skripnik
V. Skripnik
VS
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi S. Nahornyak
S. Nahornyak
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: D
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: D
SK Poltava Rank: W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: L
Kudrivka Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kudrivka Rank: W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zorya Luhansk
37.71%
Draw
27.94%
Away Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
34.35%

Movement

Changes since opening
Zorya Luhansk
-56.59%
Draw
+22.88%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
+33.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.97
22.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zorya Luhansk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Power Score
20.97
22.68
League Position
8
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zorya Luhansk — Opponent-weighted form score
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zorya Luhansk Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zorya Luhansk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zorya Luhansk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.91
26.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.51
11.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zorya Luhansk -1.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi +1.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zorya Luhansk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zorya Luhansk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zorya Luhansk Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zorya Luhansk Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zorya Luhansk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zorya Luhansk
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zorya Luhansk Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zorya Luhansk 0.13
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zorya Luhansk Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zorya Luhansk 0.00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.03
Zorya Luhansk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Epitsentr Dunayivtsi had peak pressure around 72'.
  • Epitsentr Dunayivtsi started the game with stronger pressure.
Zorya Luhansk Pressure Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi reached the top pressure at 72' (66.68).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk Home
1 matches
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:03:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Turbaevsky
Ukraine
12 M. Turbaevsky
I. Perduta
Substitution
Ukraine
44 I. Perduta
A. da Silva Cordeiro
Brazil
55 A. da Silva Cordeiro
G. Eskinja
Austria
4 G. Eskinja
L. Reis Rodrigues
Brazil
10 L. Reis Rodrigues
B. Kushnirenko
Ukraine
77 B. Kushnirenko
N. Malysh
Ukraine
23 N. Malysh
I. Horbach
Substitution
Ukraine
11 I. Horbach
S. Bah
Substitution
Sierra Leone
88 S. Bah
A. Slesar
Substitution
Ukraine
9 A. Slesar
P. Budkivskyi
Ukraine
28 P. Budkivskyi
O. Bilyk
Ukraine
31 O. Bilyk
O. Klymets
Ukraine
97 O. Klymets
N. Coch Montaña
Spain
77 N. Coch Montaña
V. Moroz
Ukraine
4 V. Moroz
V. Luchkevych
Substitution
Ukraine
67 V. Luchkevych
E. Zaporozhets
Substitution
Ukraine
5 E. Zaporozhets
J. Ceberio Amonarriz
Substitution
Spain
39 J. Ceberio Amonarriz
J. Cifuentes Xalmet
Spain
9 J. Cifuentes Xalmet
M. Myronyuk
Substitution
Ukraine
8 M. Myronyuk
V. Sydun
Ukraine
20 V. Sydun
V. Supriaha
Substitution
Ukraine
21 V. Supriaha

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky (Kyjiv (Kiev))
Capacity
16873
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Viktor Nyzhnyk
Artem Mykhaylyuk
Semen Shlonchak
Oleksandr Tytov

Statistics

Possession
Zorya Luhansk
42%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Shots 7
32 Dangerous attacks 61
47 Possession 53
4 Corners 8
12 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 5
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

70 Attacks 99

Defensive

4 Saves 2

Discipline

7 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Artem Mykhaylyuk

Starting XI ▼

12
Mykyta Turbayevskyi
Mykyta Turbayevskyi Goalkeeper
4
Gabriel Eskinja
Gabriel Eskinja Defender
10
Juninho
Juninho Defender
44
Igor Perduta
Igor Perduta Defender
8
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Midfielder46'
55
Jordan
Jordan Defender
9
Artem Slesar
Artem Slesar Midfielder
6
Dejan Popara
Dejan Popara
Midfielder62'
11
Igor Gorbach
Igor Gorbach Midfielder
17
Fedir Zadorozhnyi
Fedir Zadorozhnyi
Attacker90+2'
23
Navin Malysh
Navin Malysh Midfielder
77
Bogdan Kushnirenko
Bogdan Kushnirenko Midfielder
88
S. Bah
S. Bah Midfielder
7
Nemanja Anđušić
Nemanja Anđušić
Midfielder46'
28
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Pylyp Budkivskyi Attacker
Referee : Artem Mykhaylyuk

Starting XI ▼

31
Oleg Bilyk
Oleg Bilyk Goalkeeper
4
Vladyslav Moroz
Vladyslav Moroz Defender
67
Valeriy Luchkevych
Valeriy Luchkevych Defender
3
Stepan Grigorashchuk
Stepan Grigorashchuk
Defender76'
77
Nil Coch
Nil Coch Defender
97
Oleksandr Klymets
Oleksandr Klymets Defender
5
Yevhen Zaporozhets
Yevhen Zaporozhets Midfielder
6
Kyrylo Kovalets
Kyrylo Kovalets
Midfielder65'
8
Mykola Myronyuk
Mykola Myronyuk Midfielder
17
Yehor Demchenko
Yehor Demchenko
Midfielder76'
9
Joaquinete
Joaquinete Midfielder
20
Vadym Sydun
Vadym Sydun Midfielder
39
Jon Ceberio
Jon Ceberio Midfielder
10
Andriy Bezhenar
Andriy Bezhenar
Midfielder86'
21
Vladyslav Supryaga
Vladyslav Supryaga Attacker
7
Andriy Matkevych
Andriy Matkevych
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fedir Zadorozhnyi → Igor Gorbach
9th Substitution
90+2'
86'
Event
Andriy Bezhenar → Jon Ceberio
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Stepan Grigorashchuk → Valeriy Luchkevych
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Yehor Demchenko → Mykola Myronyuk
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Andriy Matkevych → Vladyslav Supryaga
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Kyrylo Kovalets → Yevhen Zaporozhets
4th Substitution
Event
Dejan Popara → Artem Slesar
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Gabriel Eskinja
2nd Yellowcard
59'
59'
Event
Valeriy Luchkevych
3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Nil Coch
1st Yellowcard
Event
Nemanja Anđušić → S. Bah
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk → Igor Perduta
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jordan
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zorya Luhansk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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