Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Arena Lublin Sun, 12 Apr - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
1 – 1
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 12:45 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Mbaye Ndiaye - 67'
Goal
|
Goal
Jonatan Braut Brunes - 90+2' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa is now finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. The teams went into halftime level at 0-0, with neither side able to break the deadlock until the second period. Pre-match expectations positioned Raków Częstochowa as narrow favorites, yet the outcome delivered a significant deviation that favored Motor Lublin. The home team, identified as the stronger side overall, secured a point in a contest that did not align with the initial projection. Possession was shared almost equally, with Motor Lublin at 51 percent and Raków at 49 percent. No expected goals data was available to measure chance quality, and no red cards occurred to alter the flow. The efficiency shift stayed in line with the balance of play, reflecting a competitive encounter where Motor Lublin's application compensated for the pre-match forecast. This result underscores their ability to rise to the occasion against higher-rated visitors, producing a fair share of the spoils in an evenly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Motor Lublin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Frankowski
B. Frankowski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
J. Winkler
J. Winkler
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
M. Sobczak
M. Sobczak
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
?. Szczech
?. Szczech
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Motor Lublin M. Stolarski
M. Stolarski
VS
Raków Częstochowa ?. Tomczyk
?. Tomczyk
1.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Nieciecza Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: D
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Nieciecza Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motor Lublin
34.87%
Draw
26.79%
Away Raków Częstochowa
38.34%

Movement

Changes since opening
Motor Lublin
+29.34%
Draw
-62.73%
Raków Częstochowa
+33.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.16
23.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motor Lublin
Raków Częstochowa
Power Score
32.16
23.14
League Position
8
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motor Lublin — Opponent-weighted form score
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motor Lublin Raków Częstochowa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motor Lublin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Motor Lublin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.22
30.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.00
19.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Motor Lublin -0.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Raków Częstochowa +0.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Motor Lublin
Raków Częstochowa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motor Lublin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motor Lublin Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motor Lublin Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motor Lublin
Raków Częstochowa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Motor Lublin
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Motor Lublin Raków Częstochowa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Motor Lublin 0.13
Raków Częstochowa 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Motor Lublin Raków Częstochowa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Motor Lublin 0.02
Raków Częstochowa 0.02
Motor Lublin
Raków Częstochowa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Raków Częstochowa had peak pressure around 33'.
  • Motor Lublin started the game with stronger pressure.
Motor Lublin Pressure Raków Częstochowa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Raków Częstochowa reached the top pressure at 33' (78.01).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motor Lublin Motor Lublin Home
3 matches
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
2
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:04:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
I. Brkić
Croatia
1 I. Brkić
P. Stolarski
Substitution
Poland
28 P. Stolarski
B. Ede
Substitution
42 B. Ede
H. Matthys
Belgium
3 H. Matthys
F. Luberecki
Poland
24 F. Luberecki
J. Łabojko
Poland
21 J. Łabojko
M. Ndiaye
Senegal
30 M. Ndiaye
B. Wolski
Substitution
Poland
68 B. Wolski
I. dos Santos Rodrigues
Portugal
7 I. dos Santos Rodrigues
F. Costa Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
11 F. Costa Conceição
K. Czubak
Substitution
Poland
9 K. Czubak
O. Zych
Poland
48 O. Zych
E. Svarnas
Greece
4 E. Svarnas
B. Racovitan
France
25 B. Racovitan
A. Mosór
Poland
2 A. Mosór
M. Ameyaw
Substitution
Poland
19 M. Ameyaw
M. Bulat
Croatia
5 M. Bulat
K. Struski
Substitution
Poland
23 K. Struski
M. Ilenčič
Substitution
Slovenia
35 M. Ilenčič
P. Makuch
Substitution
Poland
9 P. Makuch
J. Brunes
Norway
18 J. Brunes
M. Diaby Fadiga
Substitution
France
80 M. Diaby Fadiga

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena Lublin
Capacity
15243
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bartosz Frankowski
Jacub Winkler
Michal Sobczak
Łukasz Szczech

Statistics

Possession
Motor Lublin
48%
Raków Częstochowa
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 2
56 Dangerous attacks 54
51 Possession 49
7 Corners 4
7 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

15 Dribble Attempts 15
7 Successful Dribbles 11
9 Goal Kicks 8
14 Throwins 22
73 Ball Safe 71
1 Injuries 2
5 Substitutions 5
4 Goal Attempts 9
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 73
1 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

71 Attacks 78
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

51 Long Passes 64
14 Successful Long Passes 33
27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
281 Successful Passes 271
76 Successful Passes Percentage 76
371 Passes 355

Defensive

5 Interceptions 5
10 Tackles 17
4 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 8
19 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

11 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivan Brkic
Ivan Brkic Goalkeeper
3
Hervé Matthys
Hervé Matthys Defender
24
Filip Luberecki
Filip Luberecki Defender
28
Pawel Stolarski
Pawel Stolarski Defender
17
Filip Wojcik
Filip Wojcik
Defender85'
42
Bright Ede
Bright Ede Defender
18
Arkadiusz Najemski
Arkadiusz Najemski
Defender79'
7
Ivo Rodrigues
Ivo Rodrigues Midfielder
11
Fábio Ronaldo
Fábio Ronaldo Midfielder
19
Bradly van Hoeven
Bradly van Hoeven
Midfielder59'
21
Jakub Labojko
Jakub Labojko Midfielder
30
Mbaye Ndiaye
Mbaye Ndiaye Midfielder
68
Bartosz Wolski
Bartosz Wolski Midfielder
8
Mathieu Scalet
Mathieu Scalet
Midfielder79'
9
Karol Czubak
Karol Czubak Attacker
77
Renat Dadashov
Renat Dadashov
Attacker79'
Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

48
Oliwier Zych
Oliwier Zych Goalkeeper
2
Ariel Mosor
Ariel Mosor Defender
4
Stratos Svarnas
Stratos Svarnas Defender
25
Bogdan Racovițan
Bogdan Racovițan Defender
5
Marko Bulat
Marko Bulat Midfielder
19
Michael Ameyaw
Michael Ameyaw Midfielder
20
Jean Carlos Silva
Jean Carlos Silva
Midfielder46'
23
Karol Struski
Karol Struski Midfielder
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka
Midfielder10'
35
Mitja Ilenčič
Mitja Ilenčič Midfielder
8
Tomasz Pienko
Tomasz Pienko
Midfielder59'
9
Patryk Makuch
Patryk Makuch Attacker
17
Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo Rocha
Attacker74'
18
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Jonatan Braut Brunes Attacker
80
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga Attacker
39
Isak Brusberg
Isak Brusberg
Midfielder59'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mbaye Ndiaye
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
90+2'
Event
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Jakub Labojko
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+1'
90'
Event
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Penalty awarded
Event
Filip Wojcik → Pawel Stolarski
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Arkadiusz Najemski → Bright Ede
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Renat Dadashov → Karol Czubak
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Mathieu Scalet → Bartosz Wolski
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Bright Ede
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
75'
74'
Event
Leonardo Rocha → Patryk Makuch
6th Substitution
Event
Mbaye Ndiaye
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
67'
Event
Bradly van Hoeven → Fábio Ronaldo
4th Substitution
59'
59'
Event
Isak Brusberg → Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Tomasz Pienko → Mitja Ilenčič
5th Substitution
46'
Event
Jean Carlos Silva → Michael Ameyaw
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
10'
Event
Oskar Repka → Karol Struski
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Motor Lublin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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