Brøndby IF vs FC Midtjylland Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Brøndby Stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM
Superliga
Brøndby IF BIF
1 Winner 2
FC Midtjylland FCM
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 4 Championship Round
Nicolai Vallys - 90+7' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Franculino - 65' (P)
Bartosz Slisz - 81' (Own Goal)
|
Second yellow card Ousmane Diao 81'

CONTEXT

The match between Brøndby IF and FC Midtjylland is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-2 to the visitors. The teams went into halftime level at 0-0, but FC Midtjylland found the net twice after the break while Brøndby IF responded with a single goal. Pre-match assessments identified FC Midtjylland as the stronger side, and the result showed only minimal deviation from those expectations, aligning closely with the pre-match projection. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations despite the visitors seeing a red card. Brøndby IF held 55 percent possession to Midtjylland’s 45 percent, yet the numerical disadvantage caused by the second-half red card created some distortion that the away team ultimately overcame to claim victory. No xG data was available to assess further alignment. Overall the outcome reflected FC Midtjylland’s superiority as anticipated.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Midtjylland showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Krogh
M. Krogh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
J. Dahl
J. Dahl
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
D. Rasmussen
D. Rasmussen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
S. Funder
S. Funder
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Brøndby IF S. Cooper
S. Cooper
VS
FC Midtjylland M. Tullberg
M. Tullberg
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nordsjælland Rank: L
AGF Rank: D
Viborg FF Rank: L
FC Midtjylland Rank: D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: D
Viborg FF Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: D
Viborg FF Rank: D
Nordsjælland Rank: L
Brøndby IF Rank: D
Silkeborg IF Rank: W
Odense BK Rank: W
28
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
28 - 17 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brøndby IF
0.19%
Draw
5.09%
Away FC Midtjylland
94.72%

Movement

Changes since opening
Brøndby IF
0%
Draw
-1.32%
FC Midtjylland
+1.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.53
33.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brøndby IF
FC Midtjylland
Power Score
21.53
33.43
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brøndby IF — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Midtjylland — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brøndby IF FC Midtjylland

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brøndby IF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Midtjylland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brøndby IF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Midtjylland
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.55
32.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.44
27.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brøndby IF -0.49 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Midtjylland +0.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brøndby IF
FC Midtjylland
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brøndby IF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Midtjylland
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brøndby IF FC Midtjylland
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brøndby IF FC Midtjylland
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Brøndby IF
FC Midtjylland
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Brøndby IF
vs
FC Midtjylland
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brøndby IF FC Midtjylland
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Brøndby IF 0.30
FC Midtjylland 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brøndby IF FC Midtjylland
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Brøndby IF 0.06
FC Midtjylland 0.02
Brøndby IF
FC Midtjylland
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BIF had peak pressure around 101'.
  • FCM started the game with stronger pressure.
BIF Pressure FCM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BIF reached the top pressure at 101' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 69 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brøndby IF BIF Home
69 matches
FC Midtjylland FCM Away
Match Record
28
Wins
24
17
Draws
17
24
Losses
28
Goals
108
Goals Scored
97
97
Goals Conceded
108
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:06:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
P. Pentz
Austria
1 P. Pentz
O. Villadsen
Substitution
Denmark
2 O. Villadsen
B. Godfrey
England
14 B. Godfrey
L. Binks
England
4 L. Binks
M. Köhlert
Substitution
Germany
27 M. Köhlert
B. Slisz
Poland
99 B. Slisz
D. Wass
Substitution
Denmark
10 D. Wass
M. Divković
Croatia
24 M. Divković
N. Vallys
Denmark
7 N. Vallys
O. Sow
Substitution
France
22 O. Sow
J. Brøchner Ambæk
38 J. Brøchner Ambæk
E. Olafsson
Iceland
16 E. Olafsson
M. Bech Sørensen
Denmark
22 M. Bech Sørensen
M. Erlić
Croatia
6 M. Erlić
H. Lee
South Korea
3 H. Lee
V. Jensen
Denmark
55 V. Jensen
P. Bravo Landazuri
Colombia
19 P. Bravo Landazuri
O. Diao
Senegal
4 O. Diao
D. Osorio Osorio
Substitution
Chile
11 D. Osorio Osorio
M. Gogorza Krüger-Johnsen
Substitution
Denmark
41 M. Gogorza Krüger-Johnsen
V. Byskov Andreasen
Substitution
Denmark
20 V. Byskov Andreasen
D. Simsir
Substitution
Denmark
58 D. Simsir

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 4 · Championship Round
Stadium
Brøndby Stadion
Capacity
29000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Morten Krogh
Jesper Dahl
Dennis Wollenberg Rasmussen
Svend Funder

Statistics

Possession
BIF
52%
FCM
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 4
43 Dangerous attacks 32
55 Possession 45
3 Corners 9
14 Free kicks 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0
1 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 4
7 Successful Dribbles 4
75 Ball Safe 78
18 Throwins 24
9 Dribble Attempts 14
78 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
9 Goal Attempts 8
6 Goal Kicks 6

Attacking

75 Attacks 84
0 Big Chances Missed 1
4 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

9 Key Passes 12
77 Successful Passes Percentage 73
26 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
277 Successful Passes 221
362 Passes 304
43 Long Passes 66
11 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

4 Interceptions 6
4 Saves 4
13 Tackles 9

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 12
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

21 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Pentz
Patrick Pentz Goalkeeper
2
Oliver Villadsen
Oliver Villadsen Defender
29
Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen
Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen
Midfielder87'
4
Luis Binks
Luis Binks Defender
14
Ben Godfrey
Ben Godfrey Defender
27
Mats Köhlert
Mats Köhlert Defender
19
Sho Fukuda
Sho Fukuda
Attacker82'
7
Nicolai Vallys
Nicolai Vallys Midfielder
10
Daniel Wass
Daniel Wass Midfielder
8
Benjamin Tahirović
Benjamin Tahirović
Midfielder67'
22
Ousmane Sow
Ousmane Sow Midfielder
17
Emmanuel Dennis
Emmanuel Dennis
Attacker67'
24
Marko Divkovic
Marko Divkovic Midfielder
99
Bartosz Slisz
Bartosz Slisz Midfielder
38
Jacob Ambaek
Jacob Ambaek Attacker
Referee : Morten Krogh

Starting XI ▼

16
Elías Ólafsson
Elías Ólafsson Goalkeeper
3
Han-beom Lee
Han-beom Lee Defender
6
Martin Erlić
Martin Erlić Defender
22
Mads Bech Sørensen
Mads Bech Sørensen Defender
4
Ousmane Diao
Ousmane Diao Midfielder
11
Darío Osorio
Darío Osorio Midfielder
29
Paulinho
Paulinho
Defender79'
19
Pedro Bravo
Pedro Bravo Midfielder
55
Victor Bak
Victor Bak Midfielder
20
Valdemar Byskov
Valdemar Byskov Attacker
21
Denil Castillo
Denil Castillo
Midfielder79'
41
Mikel Gogorza
Mikel Gogorza Attacker
7
Franculino
Franculino
Attacker55'
58
Aral Şimşir
Aral Şimşir Attacker
43
Kevin Mbabu
Kevin Mbabu
Defender84'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nicolai Vallys
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
90+7'
Event
Nicolai Vallys
7th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen
Penalty awarded
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Kevin Mbabu
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Mads Frøkjaer-Jensen → Oliver Villadsen
8th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Kevin Mbabu → Aral Şimşir
7th Substitution
Event
Sho Fukuda → Mats Köhlert
6th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Ousmane Diao
Second Yellow Card / 1st Yellow/red Card
81'
Event
Bartosz Slisz
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
79'
Event
Paulinho → Darío Osorio
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Denil Castillo → Valdemar Byskov
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Pedro Bravo
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Bartosz Slisz
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
70'
70'
Event
Ousmane Diao
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Emmanuel Dennis → Ousmane Sow
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Benjamin Tahirović → Daniel Wass
3rd Substitution
67'
65'
Event
Franculino
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
64'
Event
Mike Tullberg
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
55'
Event
Franculino → Mikel Gogorza
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Oliver Villadsen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Marko Divkovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Midtjylland exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Superliga View all league clusters