Malmö FF vs GAIS Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Malmö Stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 2:30 PM
Allsvenskan
Malmö FF MAL
3 Winner 1
GAIS GAIS
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:30 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
Pontus Jansson - 21'
Oscar Sjöstrand - 37'
Otto Rosengren - 42'
Goal
|
Goal
S. Ekong - 87'

CONTEXT

The match between Malmö FF and GAIS is now finished, with the full-time score 0-1 to the visitors. Malmö FF entered the fixture as the stronger side and were given a 53.7 percent chance of victory in pre-match forecasts, with GAIS rated at only 22 percent. The result therefore marked a significant deviation, as the away team produced an upset win that ran counter to those expectations. Possession was split 46-54 percent in GAIS’s favor, though expected goals data was unavailable. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns, yet the final score did not align with the pre-match projection and was not consistent with the anticipated outcome. No red cards were issued to either side, and the contest remained free of major disciplinary interruptions. GAIS capitalised on their opportunities while Malmö FF were unable to convert their status as favourites into a positive result, producing a result that will be remembered as a clear outlier from the predicted script.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: GAIS showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Johnson
O. Johnson
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
V. Wolf
V. Wolf
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
M. Hallin
M. Hallin
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
P. Rehnlund
P. Rehnlund
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.71
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Malmö FF M. Ramírez
M. Ramírez
VS
GAIS F. Holmberg
F. Holmberg
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
1.6 i
Last 6 Opponents
Örgryte Rank: D
GAIS Rank: W
Häcken Rank: D
Hammarby Rank: L
Norrköping Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.4 i
Last 6 Opponents
Djurgården Rank: L
Malmö FF Rank: L
Öster Rank: D
Brommapojkarna Rank: W
Djurgården Rank: W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 8 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Malmö FF
53.68%
Draw
24.36%
Away GAIS
21.96%

Movement

Changes since opening
Malmö FF
-44.21%
Draw
+22.44%
GAIS
+21.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.28
23.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Malmö FF
GAIS
Power Score
23.28
23.17
League Position
4
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score
GAIS — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Malmö FF GAIS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

GAIS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy GAIS
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.20
24.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.54
31.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Malmö FF +0.71 Efficiency Index
vs
GAIS -0.71 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Malmö FF
GAIS
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy GAIS
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Malmö FF GAIS
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Malmö FF GAIS
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Malmö FF
GAIS
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Malmö FF
vs
GAIS
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Malmö FF GAIS
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Malmö FF 0.26
GAIS 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Malmö FF GAIS
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Malmö FF 0.02
GAIS 0.06
Malmö FF
GAIS
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MAL had peak pressure around 43'.
  • MAL started the game with stronger pressure.
MAL Pressure GAIS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MAL reached the top pressure at 43' (74.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Malmö FF MAL Home
18 matches
GAIS GAIS Away
Match Record
9
Wins
1
8
Draws
8
1
Losses
9
Goals
22
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
22
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:07:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Olsen
Sweden
1 R. Olsen
J. Larsen
Substitution
Denmark
17 J. Larsen
P. Jansson
Sweden
18 P. Jansson
C. Rosler
Substitution
Norway
19 C. Rosler
G. Dal Toé Busanello
Brazil
25 G. Dal Toé Busanello
T. Ali
Sweden
22 T. Ali
O. Rosengren
Sweden
7 O. Rosengren
T. Lundbergh
Substitution
Sweden
47 T. Lundbergh
O. Sjöstrand
Substitution
24 O. Sjöstrand
S. Haksabanovic
Substitution
Montenegro
29 S. Haksabanovic
E. Botheim
Norway
20 E. Botheim
K. Sims
New Zealand
13 K. Sims
M. de Brienne
Substitution
Canada
2 M. de Brienne
O. Ågren
Sweden
4 O. Ågren
A. Cardaklija
Substitution
Sweden
22 A. Cardaklija
R. Frej
Sweden
12 R. Frej
M. Bawa
Substitution
Sweden
27 M. Bawa
J. Åberg
Sweden
7 J. Åberg
W. Milovanovic
Sweden
8 W. Milovanovic
R. Niklasson Johansson
Sweden
11 R. Niklasson Johansson
S. Salter
Substitution
Canada
20 S. Salter
O. Pettersson
Substitution
Sweden
32 O. Pettersson

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
Malmö Stadion
Capacity
22500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oscar Johnson
Victor Wolf
Mikael Hallin
Per Rehnlund

Statistics

Possession
MAL
48%
GAIS
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 7
47 Dangerous attacks 45
46 Possession 54
6 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

2 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
59 Ball Safe 45
8 Goal Attempts 9
3 Successful Dribbles 3
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
23 Throwins 18
11 Goal Kicks 9
11 Dribble Attempts 12

Attacking

90 Attacks 98

Possession

10 Key Passes 9
68 Long Passes 55
28 Successful Long Passes 18
276 Successful Passes 358
75 Successful Passes Percentage 79
366 Passes 451
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

4 Saves 1
21 Tackles 17
13 Interceptions 5

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 17
9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
5 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Victor Wolf

Starting XI ▼

1
Robin Olsen
Robin Olsen Goalkeeper
17
Jens Stryger Larsen
Jens Stryger Larsen Defender
2
Johan Karlsson
Johan Karlsson
Defender68'
18
Pontus Jansson
Pontus Jansson Defender
19
Colin Rösler
Colin Rösler Defender
5
Andrej Djuric
Andrej Djuric
Defender85'
25
Busanello
Busanello Defender
7
Otto Rosengren
Otto Rosengren Midfielder
22
Taha Ali
Taha Ali Midfielder
24
Oscar Sjöstrand
Oscar Sjöstrand Midfielder
37
Adrian Skogmar
Adrian Skogmar
Midfielder68'
47
Theodor Lundbergh
Theodor Lundbergh Midfielder
40
Kenan Busuladzic
Kenan Busuladzic
Midfielder74'
20
Erik Botheim
Erik Botheim Attacker
29
Sead Haksabanovic
Sead Haksabanovic Attacker
8
Arnór Sigurdsson
Arnór Sigurdsson
Midfielder74'
Referee : Victor Wolf

Starting XI ▼

13
Kees Sims
Kees Sims Goalkeeper
2
Matteo de Brienne
Matteo de Brienne Defender
5
Robin Wendin Thomasson
Robin Wendin Thomasson
Defender59'
4
Oskar Ågren
Oskar Ågren Defender
12
Robin Frej
Robin Frej Defender
22
Anes Cardaklija
Anes Cardaklija Defender
6
August Wängberg
August Wängberg
Defender58'
7
Joackim Åberg
Joackim Åberg Midfielder
8
William Milovanovic
William Milovanovic Midfielder
27
Mohamed Bawa
Mohamed Bawa Midfielder
17
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
Midfielder58'
11
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson Attacker
20
S. Salter
S. Salter Attacker
21
S. Ekong
S. Ekong
Attacker71'
32
Oscar Pettersson
Oscar Pettersson Attacker
26
Blessing Asumang
Blessing Asumang
Attacker80'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
S. Ekong
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Andrej Djuric → Colin Rösler
10th Substitution
85'
80'
Event
Blessing Asumang → Oscar Pettersson
9th Substitution
Event
Kenan Busuladzic → Theodor Lundbergh
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Arnór Sigurdsson → Sead Haksabanovic
8th Substitution
74'
71'
Event
S. Ekong → S. Salter
6th Substitution
Event
Adrian Skogmar → Oscar Sjöstrand
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Johan Karlsson → Jens Stryger Larsen
4th Substitution
68'
67'
Event
Joackim Åberg
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Miguel Angel Ramirez
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
63'
Event
5th Yellowcard
63'
59'
Event
Robin Wendin Thomasson → Matteo de Brienne
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
August Wängberg → Anes Cardaklija
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson → Mohamed Bawa
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Taha Ali
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
45'
Event
William Milovanovic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Otto Rosengren
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
42'
Event
Oscar Sjöstrand
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
37'
Event
Pontus Jansson
Header / 1st Goal
21'
10'
Event
Mohamed Bawa
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: GAIS exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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