Luzern vs St. Gallen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
swissporarena Sun, 12 Apr - 2:30 PM
Super League
Luzern LUZ
2 – 2
St. Gallen St. Gallen
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Andrej Vasovic - 9'
Lars Villiger - 77'
Goal
|
Goal
Aliou Baldé - 73' (P), 87'

CONTEXT

The match between Luzern and St. Gallen has concluded with a full-time score of 2-2. The home side led 1-0 at half-time but were unable to close out the victory as the visitors mounted a recovery to earn a share of the points in an entertaining contest. Pre-match forecasts had strongly favored Luzern with a 47.4 percent likelihood of victory, a draw rated at 23.4 percent, and success for St. Gallen at 29.2 percent. The actual outcome represented a significant deviation from those expectations, particularly linked to St. Gallen, who entered the fixture regarded as the stronger team yet had to settle for a draw. Possession was closely contested at 52 percent for Luzern and 48 percent for their opponents, with no red cards issued to disrupt the balance or flow of play. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations across the full match. Without xG data available, direct alignment with expected goals could not be measured, but the result clearly diverged from the pre-match projection that had anticipated a home win. Both sides demonstrated competitive spirit in a game that produced four goals and a fair outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: St. Gallen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Piccolo
L. Piccolo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
M. Sbrissa
M. Sbrissa
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
N. Lötscher
N. Lötscher
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
M. Odiet
M. Odiet
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
Luzern M. Frick
M. Frick
VS
St. Gallen E. Maaßen
E. Maaßen
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Servette Rank: L
Lausanne Sport Rank: W
Winterthur Rank: L
Lugano Rank: W
Young Boys Rank: L
Thun Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zürich Rank: W
Sion Rank: D
Lugano Rank: D
Basel Rank: W
Thun Rank: D
Winterthur Rank: W
30
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
30 - 19 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Luzern
47.37%
Draw
23.39%
Away St. Gallen
29.24%

Movement

Changes since opening
Luzern
+42.46%
Draw
-67.25%
St. Gallen
+24.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.6
33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Luzern
St. Gallen
Power Score
21.6
33
League Position
7
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Luzern — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Gallen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Luzern St. Gallen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Luzern

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Gallen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Luzern ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Gallen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.33
37.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.50
19.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Luzern -1.72 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Gallen +1.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Luzern
St. Gallen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Luzern ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Gallen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Luzern St. Gallen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Luzern St. Gallen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Luzern
St. Gallen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Luzern
vs
St. Gallen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Luzern St. Gallen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Luzern 0.20
St. Gallen 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Luzern St. Gallen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Luzern 0.03
St. Gallen 0.05
Luzern
St. Gallen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • St. Gallen had peak pressure around 75'.
  • LUZ started the game with stronger pressure.
LUZ Pressure St. Gallen Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: St. Gallen reached the top pressure at 75' (88.65).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 68 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Luzern LUZ Home
68 matches
St. Gallen St. Gallen Away
Match Record
30
Wins
19
19
Draws
19
19
Losses
30
Goals
111
Goals Scored
87
87
Goals Conceded
111
+24
Goal Difference
-24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:06:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
P. Loretz
Switzerland
1 P. Loretz
P. Dorn
Germany
20 P. Dorn
B. Freimann
46 B. Freimann
A. Bajrami
Albania
4 A. Bajrami
R. Fernandes
Substitution
Switzerland
22 R. Fernandes
O. Kabwit tshikomb
Substitution
DR Congo
16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
T. Owusu
Switzerland
24 T. Owusu
T. Abe
Substitution
Japan
6 T. Abe
M. Di Giusto
Switzerland
11 M. Di Giusto
V. Villiger
Substitution
Switzerland
27 V. Villiger
A. Vasovic
Switzerland
19 A. Vasovic
L. Ati-Zigi
Ghana
1 L. Ati-Zigi
C. Kleine-Bekel
Germany
3 C. Kleine-Bekel
J. Stanic
Croatia
4 J. Stanic
T. Gaal
Germany
26 T. Gaal
M. Stevanovic
Serbia
64 M. Stevanovic
C. Okoroji
Substitution
Germany
36 C. Okoroji
C. Boukhalfa
Germany
11 C. Boukhalfa
C. Konietzke
Substitution
Switzerland
63 C. Konietzke
H. Vandermersch
Substitution
France
28 H. Vandermersch
A. Balde
Substitution
Senegal
14 A. Balde
A. Vogt
Switzerland
18 A. Vogt

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
swissporarena
Capacity
16800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luca Piccolo
Matthias Sbrissa
Noël Lötscher
Maxime Odiet

Statistics

Possession
LUZ
51%
St. Gallen
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 3
41 Dangerous attacks 60
52 Possession 48
6 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 4
0 Penalties 1
2 Injuries 0
8 Goal Attempts 9
70 Ball Safe 70
9 Successful Dribbles 9
1 Assists 0
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
15 Dribble Attempts 18
11 Goal Kicks 6
19 Throwins 19

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
80 Attacks 98

Possession

7 Key Passes 6
80 Long Passes 65
255 Successful Passes 240
32 Successful Long Passes 20
363 Passes 333
70 Successful Passes Percentage 72
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

Defensive

1 Saves 0
10 Interceptions 14
22 Tackles 17

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
15 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Luca Piccolo

Starting XI ▼

1
Pascal Loretz
Pascal Loretz Goalkeeper
4
Adrian Bajrami
Adrian Bajrami Defender
20
Pius Dorn
Pius Dorn Defender
22
Rúben Dantas Fernandes
Rúben Dantas Fernandes Defender
14
Andrejs Ciganiks
Andrejs Ciganiks
Defender74'
46
Bung Meng Freimann
Bung Meng Freimann Defender
6
Taisei Abe
Taisei Abe Midfielder
29
Levin Winkler
Levin Winkler
Midfielder80'
11
Matteo Di Giusto
Matteo Di Giusto Midfielder
16
Oscar Kabwit
Oscar Kabwit Midfielder
7
Kevin Spadanuda
Kevin Spadanuda
Midfielder74'
24
Tyron Owusu
Tyron Owusu Midfielder
19
Andrej Vasovic
Andrej Vasovic Attacker
27
Lars Villiger
Lars Villiger Attacker
71
Sascha Meyer
Sascha Meyer
Attacker84'
Referee : Luca Piccolo

Starting XI ▼

1
Lawrence Ati Zigi
Lawrence Ati Zigi Goalkeeper
3
Colin Kleine-Bekel
Colin Kleine-Bekel Defender
4
Jozo Stanic
Jozo Stanic Defender
26
Tom Gaal
Tom Gaal Defender
11
Carlo Boukhalfa
Carlo Boukhalfa Midfielder
28
Hugo Vandermersch
Hugo Vandermersch Midfielder
69
Diego Besio
Diego Besio
Attacker46'
36
Chima Okoroji
Chima Okoroji Midfielder
77
Tiemoko Ouattara
Tiemoko Ouattara
Attacker82'
63
Corsin Konietzke
Corsin Konietzke Midfielder
66
Nino Weibel
Nino Weibel
Midfielder66'
64
Mihailo Stevanovic
Mihailo Stevanovic Midfielder
14
Aliou Baldé
Aliou Baldé Attacker
2
23
Betim Fazliji
Betim Fazliji
Midfielder89'
18
Alessandro Vogt
Alessandro Vogt Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Colin Kleine-Bekel
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Alessandro Vogt
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Betim Fazliji → Aliou Baldé
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Aliou Baldé
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Sascha Meyer → Lars Villiger
7th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Tiemoko Ouattara → Chima Okoroji
6th Substitution
Event
Levin Winkler → Taisei Abe
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Lars Villiger
Header / 2nd Goal
77'
Event
Kevin Spadanuda → Oscar Kabwit
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Andrejs Ciganiks → Rúben Dantas Fernandes
3rd Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Aliou Baldé
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
66'
Event
Nino Weibel → Corsin Konietzke
2nd Substitution
Event
Rúben Dantas Fernandes
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Taisei Abe
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
46'
Event
Diego Besio → Hugo Vandermersch
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Andrej Vasovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
9'
7'
Event
Carlo Boukhalfa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: St. Gallen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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