Molde vs HamKam Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Aker Stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Molde Molde
4 Winner 1
HamKam HamKam
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
Emil Breivik - 48', 3'
F. Sjølstad - 37' (Own Goal)
Jalal Abdullai - 14'
Goal
|
Goal
Henrik Udahl - 58'
Samukelo Kabini 78' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Molde and HamKam is finished, ending 4-1 to the home side at full time after a 3-0 interval lead. Molde controlled the contest for long spells and added a fourth goal despite trailing in overall team strength assessments heading into the fixture. Pre-match expectations gave Molde a 64.5 percent win likelihood against just 15.1 percent for HamKam, yet the final margin produced a significant deviation in Molde’s favor. The outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match projection, though the efficiency shift stayed broadly in line with expectations rather than showing extreme variance. Molde held 59 percent possession to HamKam’s 41 percent; no expected-goals data was available to measure underlying quality. Molde’s red card created second-half distortion that might have invited pressure, but the home team absorbed it without conceding further momentum. The early three-goal cushion proved decisive, allowing Molde to convert territorial control into a comfortable victory despite the numerical disadvantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Molde showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Lien

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Jensen

1st Assistant

M. Lokkeberg

2nd Assistant

Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
VS
HamKam T. Myhre
T. Myhre
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lillestrøm Rank: L
Viking Rank: L
Rosenborg Rank: W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: L
Brann Rank: W
Haugesund Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brann Rank: L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: D
Viking Rank: W
Brann Rank: L
Haugesund Rank: W
Viking Rank: L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 3 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Molde
64.45%
Draw
20.46%
Away HamKam
15.09%

Movement

Changes since opening
Molde
-33.15%
Draw
+18.55%
HamKam
+14.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.95
24.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Molde
HamKam
Power Score
22.95
24.83
League Position
6
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
HamKam — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde HamKam

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

HamKam

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy HamKam
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.31
25.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.61
28.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Molde +0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
HamKam -0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
HamKam
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy HamKam
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Molde HamKam
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Molde HamKam
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
HamKam
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Molde
vs
HamKam
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Molde HamKam
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Molde 0.26
HamKam 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Molde HamKam
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Molde 0.02
HamKam 0.07
Molde
HamKam
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Molde had peak pressure around 50'.
  • Molde started the game with stronger pressure.
Molde Pressure HamKam Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Molde reached the top pressure at 50' (72.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde Molde Home
13 matches
HamKam HamKam Away
Match Record
8
Wins
2
3
Draws
3
2
Losses
8
Goals
23
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
23
+14
Goal Difference
-14

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:07:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
M. Juhl Kikkenborg
Substitution
Denmark
1 M. Juhl Kikkenborg
H. Østervold Stenevik
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
B. Risa
Norway
33 B. Risa
S. Kabini
South Africa
26 S. Kabini
T. Doherty
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
24 T. Doherty
J. Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
14 J. Christensen
V. Hoff
Norway
15 V. Hoff
C. Zady Sery
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 C. Zady Sery
W. Abdulai
Substitution
Ghana
9 W. Abdulai
E. Breivik
Norway
10 E. Breivik
Pitch
M. Sandberg
Sweden
12 M. Sandberg
A. Ekeroth
Sweden
5 A. Ekeroth
E. Amundsen-Day
Norway
3 E. Amundsen-Day
F. Sjølstad
Substitution
Norway
23 F. Sjølstad
M. Gjone
Norway
2 M. Gjone
I. Hoffmann
Substitution
United States
24 I. Hoffmann
A. Baran Potur
Substitution
Norway
17 A. Baran Potur
P. Metcalfe
Substitution
Canada
26 P. Metcalfe
G. Simenstad
Norway
18 G. Simenstad
H. Udahl
Norway
19 H. Udahl
M. Alassane Niang
Substitution
29 M. Alassane Niang

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 12, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Aker Stadion
Capacity :
11249
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marius Lien
Morten Jensen
Monica Lokkeberg

Statistics

Possession
Molde
57%
HamKam
43%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 1
54 Dangerous attacks 50
59 Possession 41
2 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

3 Successful Dribbles 7
20 Throwins 26
8 Dribble Attempts 17
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
13 Goal Attempts 5
96 Ball Safe 96
4 Goal Kicks 7
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

122 Attacks 80
2 Big Chances Missed 1
2 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

31 Successful Long Passes 26
58 Long Passes 60
470 Successful Passes 300
84 Successful Passes Percentage 80
10 Key Passes 5
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
559 Passes 375

Defensive

7 Interceptions 11
16 Tackles 9
3 Saves 3

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Marius Lien

Starting XI ▼

1
Mads Kikkenborg
Mads Kikkenborg Goalkeeper
22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala
Goalkeeper73'
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
26
Samukelo Kabini
Samukelo Kabini Defender
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
11
Caleb Zady Sery
Caleb Zady Sery Midfielder
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas
Midfielder60'
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen Midfielder
25
Martin Linnes
Martin Linnes
Defender80'
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
24
Trent Kone Doherty
Trent Kone Doherty Midfielder
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad
Midfielder60'
9
Jalal Abdullai
Jalal Abdullai Attacker
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Attacker60'
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik Attacker
2
Referee : Marius Lien

Starting XI ▼

12
M. Sandberg
M. Sandberg Goalkeeper
2
Martin Gjone
Martin Gjone Defender
3
Ethan Amundsen Day
Ethan Amundsen Day Defender
5
A. Ekeroth
A. Ekeroth Defender
23
F. Sjølstad
F. Sjølstad Defender
4
H. Opsahl
H. Opsahl
Defender90'
24
I. Hoffmann
I. Hoffmann Defender
7
V. Jónsson
V. Jónsson
Midfielder56'
17
A. Potur
A. Potur Midfielder
8
M. Johnsgård
M. Johnsgård
Midfielder70'
18
G. Simenstad
G. Simenstad Midfielder
26
Patrick Metcalfe
Patrick Metcalfe Midfielder
6
William Osnes-Ringen
William Osnes-Ringen
Midfielder56'
19
Henrik Udahl
Henrik Udahl Attacker
29
M. Alassane Niang
M. Alassane Niang Attacker
20
Julian Gonstad
Julian Gonstad
Attacker70'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+1'
90'
Event
H. Opsahl → F. Sjølstad
10th Substitution
Event
Sondre Granaas
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Eirik Hestad
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
81'
81'
Event
A. Ekeroth
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Martin Linnes → Jacob Christensen
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Samukelo Kabini
Foul / 1st Redcard
78'
76'
Event
G. Simenstad
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Albert Posiadala → Mads Kikkenborg
8th Substitution
73'
70'
Event
M. Johnsgård → A. Potur
7th Substitution
70'
Event
Julian Gonstad → M. Alassane Niang
6th Substitution
Event
Sondre Granaas → Caleb Zady Sery
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Eirik Hestad → Trent Kone Doherty
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen → Jalal Abdullai
4th Substitution
60'
58'
Event
Henrik Udahl
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
56'
Event
V. Jónsson → I. Hoffmann
1st Substitution
56'
Event
William Osnes-Ringen → Patrick Metcalfe
2nd Substitution
Event
Emil Breivik
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
F. Sjølstad
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
37'
Event
Jalal Abdullai
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
14'
11'
Event
I. Hoffmann
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Emil Breivik
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Molde exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Molde vs HamKam preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.