Lech Poznań vs Katowice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Enea stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
3 – 3
Katowice Katowice
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Arkadiusz Jedrych - 48' (Own Goal)
Daniel Håkans - 74'
Luis Palma - 80'
Goal
|
Goal
Eman Markovic - 38', 78'
Ilya Shkurin - 60'

CONTEXT

The match between Lech Poznań and Katowice is finished, ending in a 3-3 draw. Lech Poznań entered as the stronger side and were clear pre-match favorites, but the result represented a significant deviation from expectations, especially for them. Projections had anticipated a home win with 63 percent likelihood, yet the teams shared the points instead, leaving the outcome unaligned with the pre-match projection. Lech Poznań controlled the majority of possession at 62 percent to Katowice’s 38 percent. With no xG data available, it is not possible to determine whether the final score aligned with expected goals, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with overall team strength. Katowice led at half-time, but Lech fought back to level the match before both sides traded further goals. No red cards were shown, and no single event appeared to decisively alter the balance. The draw ultimately highlighted a frustrating afternoon for the hosts despite their territorial edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Sylwestrzak
D. Sylwestrzak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
S. Rutkowski
S. Rutkowski
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
P. Sokolnicki
P. Sokolnicki
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.95
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
VS
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
1.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Nieciecza Rank: W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: W
Widzew Lodz Rank: L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: W
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: W
Radomiak Radom Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lech Poznań
63.03%
Draw
20.18%
Away Katowice
16.79%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lech Poznań
+57.52%
Draw
-70.71%
Katowice
+13.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.74
33.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lech Poznań
Katowice
Power Score
35.74
33.42
League Position
1
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lech Poznań Katowice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.31
53.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
53.68
33.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lech Poznań -1.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Katowice +1.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Katowice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lech Poznań Katowice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lech Poznań Katowice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Katowice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lech Poznań
vs
Katowice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lech Poznań Katowice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lech Poznań 0.34
Katowice 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lech Poznań Katowice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lech Poznań 0.06
Katowice 0.06
Lech Poznań
Katowice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lech Poznań had peak pressure around 101'.
  • Katowice started the game with stronger pressure.
Lech Poznań Pressure Katowice Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lech Poznań reached the top pressure at 101' (87.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Home
3 matches
Katowice Katowice Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
5
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:08:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
J. Vieira Pereira
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
M. Skrzypczak
Poland
72 M. Skrzypczak
M. Gurgul
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
A. Gholizadeh
Iran
8 A. Gholizadeh
A. Kozubal
Substitution
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
P. Delgado
Substitution
Spain
99 P. Delgado
L. Bengtsson
Substitution
Sweden
14 L. Bengtsson
P. Wålemark
Substitution
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark
M. Ishak
Substitution
Sweden
9 M. Ishak
R. Straczek
Poland
12 R. Straczek
M. Berntsen Olsen
Norway
14 M. Berntsen Olsen
A. Jędrych
Poland
4 A. Jędrych
A. Czerwiński
Substitution
Poland
30 A. Czerwiński
B. Galán González
Substitution
Spain
8 B. Galán González
D. Rasak
Poland
26 D. Rasak
S. Milewski
Substitution
Poland
22 S. Milewski
M. Wasielewski
Poland
23 M. Wasielewski
B. Nowak
Poland
27 B. Nowak
I. Shkurin
Substitution
Belarus
80 I. Shkurin
E. Marković
Substitution
Norway
15 E. Marković

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Enea stadion
Capacity
42837
Attendance
35413
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Damian Sylwestrzak
Szymon Rutkowski
Pawel Sokolnicki

Statistics

Possession
Lech Poznań
57%
Katowice
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 9
53 Dangerous attacks 48
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 9
8 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
13 Goal Kicks 5
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
4 Dribble Attempts 18
10 Throwins 8
11 Goal Attempts 14
1 Successful Dribbles 6
67 Ball Safe 62
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 3

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
70 Attacks 79

Possession

540 Passes 322
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
474 Successful Passes 263
88 Successful Passes Percentage 82
14 Key Passes 13
37 Long Passes 53
14 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

5 Saves 4
16 Tackles 9
3 Interceptions 10

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 7
26 Total Crosses 25

Discipline

9 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Defender
27
Wojciech Monka
Wojciech Monka Defender
72
Mateusz Skrzypczak
Mateusz Skrzypczak Defender
8
Ali Gholizadeh
Ali Gholizadeh Midfielder
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma
Midfielder68'
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
6
Timothy Ouma
Timothy Ouma
Midfielder80'
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
24
Filip Jagiello
Filip Jagiello
Midfielder59'
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak Attacker
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker68'
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Attacker
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder68'
Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Straczek
Rafal Straczek Goalkeeper
4
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Arkadiusz Jedrych Defender
14
M. Olsen
M. Olsen Defender
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Defender
70
Mateusz Wdowiak
Mateusz Wdowiak
Midfielder90'
8
Borja Galán
Borja Galán Midfielder
97
Erik Jirka
Erik Jirka
Midfielder73'
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Midfielder
19
Kacper Lukasiak
Kacper Lukasiak
Midfielder73'
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
26
Damian Rasak
Damian Rasak Midfielder
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic Attacker
2
10
Marcel Wedrychowski
Marcel Wedrychowski
Midfielder90+3'
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin Attacker
99
Adam Zrelak
Adam Zrelak
Attacker73'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski → Eman Markovic
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Mateusz Wdowiak → Alan Czerwinski
9th Substitution
Event
Luis Palma
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
80'
Event
Timothy Ouma → Antoni Kozubal
8th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Eman Markovic
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Daniel Håkans
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
74'
73'
Event
Erik Jirka → Borja Galán
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Kacper Lukasiak → Sebastian Milewski
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Adam Zrelak → Ilya Shkurin
7th Substitution
Event
Daniel Håkans → Patrik Wålemark
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Luis Palma → Leo Bengtsson
4th Substitution
68'
60'
Event
Ilya Shkurin
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Filip Jagiello → Pablo Rodríguez
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Patrik Wålemark
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
53'
Event
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
48'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Eman Markovic
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lech Poznań exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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