Mirandés vs Castellón Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de Anduva Sun, 12 Apr - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Mirandés MIR
2 – 2
Castellón Castellón
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Unax del Cura - 54'
Javi Hernández - 65'
Goal
|
Goal
Adam Jakobsen - 30'
Álex Calatrava - 33'
|
Red Card Jérémy Mellot 66'

CONTEXT

The match between Mirandés and Castellón has finished with a full-time score of 2-2. Castellón led 2-0 at half-time, yet Mirandés recovered in the second half to secure a share of the points in an entertaining encounter. Pre-match expectations pointed strongly toward an away victory, with Castellón assigned a 51.8 percent likelihood of success against just 23.1 percent for Mirandés and 25.1 percent for the draw. The final result marked a significant deviation, centered on Castellón, who entered as the stronger team but were unable to convert their early dominance into a win. Possession stayed remarkably balanced at 49 percent for the home side and 51 percent for the visitors, though the absence of expected goals data leaves the underlying quality of chances open to interpretation. A red card to Castellón introduced clear distortion in the second half, enabling Mirandés to push forward and level the score. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns, yet the outcome ultimately failed to align with the pre-match projection, producing a draw instead of the anticipated away success.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Castellón showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Sánchez Villalobos
J. Sánchez Villalobos
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
R. Tejero García
R. Tejero García
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
?. Munuera Montero
?. Munuera Montero
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
J. Ruiz Álvarez
J. Ruiz Álvarez
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.61
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Mirandés A. Muneta Beldarrain
A. Muneta Beldarrain
VS
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.77
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Zaragoza Rank: W
Albacete Rank: D
Córdoba Rank: D
Real Valladolid Rank: W
Cádiz Rank: L
Burgos Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: W
Almería Rank: W
Albacete Rank: D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: D
Sporting Gijón Rank: L
Real Sociedad II Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mirandés
23.13%
Draw
25.12%
Away Castellón
51.75%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mirandés
+15.99%
Draw
-63.32%
Castellón
+47.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.97
29.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mirandés
Castellón
Power Score
20.97
29.62
League Position
21
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mirandés — Opponent-weighted form score
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mirandés Castellón

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mirandés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mirandés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Castellón
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.49
44.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
44.02
24.49
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mirandés -1.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Castellón +1.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mirandés
Castellón
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mirandés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Castellón
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mirandés Castellón
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mirandés Castellón
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mirandés
Castellón
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mirandés
vs
Castellón
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mirandés Castellón
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mirandés 0.25
Castellón 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mirandés Castellón
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mirandés 0.03
Castellón 0.05
Mirandés
Castellón
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MIR had peak pressure around 91'.
  • MIR started the game with stronger pressure.
MIR Pressure Castellón Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MIR reached the top pressure at 91' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mirandés MIR Home
5 matches
Castellón Castellón Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
9
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:09:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Palomares Pulpillo
Spain
13 J. Palomares Pulpillo
T. Tamarit Tamarit
Substitution
27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
M. Pascual Castillo
Spain
4 M. Pascual Castillo
J. Cabello Trujillo
Spain
15 J. Cabello Trujillo
F. Medrano Gastañaga
Spain
3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
R. Bauzà Sureda
Spain
18 R. Bauzà Sureda
T. Helguera Merello Volante
Uruguay
6 T. Helguera Merello Volante
F. Hernandez Coarasa
Spain
28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
U. del Cura Urra
Spain
48 U. del Cura Urra
S. El Jebari El Hannouni
Substitution
Morocco
30 S. El Jebari El Hannouni
C. Fernández Luna
Spain
10 C. Fernández Luna
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
L. Alcázar Moreno
Spain
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
A. Jiménez Benítez
Spain
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
F. Brignani
Italy
3 F. Brignani
J. Mellot
France
22 J. Mellot
A. Jakobsen
Substitution
Denmark
19 A. Jakobsen
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
Substitution
Spain
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
D. Hernández Barriuso
Spain
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
P. Santiago López
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Santiago López
A. Calatrava Torrado
Substitution
Spain
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
Guinea
9 O. Camara

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de Anduva
Capacity
5759
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos
Roberto Tejero García
Ángel Munuera Montero
Jaime Ruiz Álvarez

Statistics

Possession
MIR
50%
Castellón
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 5
2 Shots 5
40 Dangerous attacks 69
49 Possession 51
8 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

19 Throwins 20
24 Dribble Attempts 16
13 Goal Kicks 6
13 Successful Dribbles 4
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
1 Assists 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
9 Goal Attempts 13
129 Ball Safe 92

Attacking

76 Attacks 98
1 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 76
298 Successful Passes 303
25 Successful Long Passes 20
394 Passes 398
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
55 Long Passes 53
5 Key Passes 16

Defensive

16 Tackles 19
10 Interceptions 17
4 Saves 5

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 27
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos

Starting XI ▼

13
Juanpa Palomares
Juanpa Palomares Goalkeeper
3
Fernando Medrano
Fernando Medrano Defender
4
Martín Pascual
Martín Pascual Defender
15
Jorge Cabello
Jorge Cabello Defender
27
Toni Tamarit
Toni Tamarit Defender
2
Hugo Novoa
Hugo Novoa
Attacker64'
6
Thiago Helguera
Thiago Helguera Midfielder
18
Rafel Bauzà
Rafel Bauzà Midfielder
28
Javi Hernández
Javi Hernández Midfielder
30
Salim El Jebari
Salim El Jebari Midfielder
17
Pablo Pérez
Pablo Pérez
Defender80'
48
Unax del Cura
Unax del Cura Midfielder
10
Carlos Fernández
Carlos Fernández Attacker
Referee : José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Defender
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Defender
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Defender
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Defender
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Midfielder
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Midfielder
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué
Midfielder78'
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
16
Brian Cipenga
Brian Cipenga
Attacker69'
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
7
Awer Mabil
Awer Mabil
Midfielder69'
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
27
Ismael Fadel
Ismael Fadel
Defender90+1'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Ismael Fadel → Álex Calatrava
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Pablo Pérez → Salim El Jebari
6th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué → Beñat Gerenabarrena
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Álvaro García → Ousmane Camara
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Brian Cipenga → Pablo Santiago
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Awer Mabil → Adam Jakobsen
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Jérémy Mellot
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Event
Javi Hernández
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
65'
Event
Hugo Novoa → Toni Tamarit
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Unax del Cura
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
54'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Álex Calatrava
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
30'
Event
Adam Jakobsen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Castellón exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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