Zenit vs Krasnodar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Gazprom Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Zenit ZSP
1 – 1
Krasnodar KRA
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 24 Regular Season
Wendel - 27'
Goal
|
Goal
Lucas Olaza - 69'
Pedro 78' Red Card
Pedro 78' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Zenit and Krasnodar is finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. Zenit led 1-0 at half-time but were pegged back in the second period, with the visitors claiming a share of the points. The result showed significant deviation from pre-match expectations, focused on Zenit. Although Zenit entered as the stronger team, they ultimately settled for a draw rather than pushing for a win. Overall the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection. No expected goals data is available, but Krasnodar controlled more of the ball with 58 percent possession to Zenit’s 42 percent. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations despite the final score. Two red cards for Zenit and none for Krasnodar created a clear red-card distortion that shaped the second half, limiting Zenit’s ability to build on their early advantage and forcing them into a more defensive posture. This event proved decisive in preventing either side from securing all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zenit showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Karasev
S. Karasev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
A. Lunev
A. Lunev
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
D. Safjan
D. Safjan
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
N. Voloshin
N. Voloshin
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.92
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.67
Zenit S. Semak
S. Semak
VS
Krasnodar M. Musaev
M. Musaev
2.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.42
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: W
Spartak Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: W
Akron Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny Rank: W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 7 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zenit
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krasnodar
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
43.63
39.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zenit
Krasnodar
Power Score
43.63
39.33
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score
Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zenit Krasnodar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zenit ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.79
20.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.95
16.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zenit -0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Krasnodar +0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Krasnodar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zenit ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zenit Krasnodar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zenit Krasnodar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Krasnodar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zenit
vs
Krasnodar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zenit Krasnodar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zenit 0.12
Krasnodar 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zenit Krasnodar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zenit 0.02
Krasnodar 0.02
Zenit
Krasnodar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KRA had peak pressure around 84'.
  • ZSP started the game with stronger pressure.
ZSP Pressure KRA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KRA reached the top pressure at 84' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zenit ZSP Home
29 matches
Krasnodar KRA Away
Match Record
18
Wins
4
7
Draws
7
4
Losses
18
Goals
58
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
58
+29
Goal Difference
-29
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:09:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Adamov
Russia
16 D. Adamov
V. Drkušić
Slovenia
6 V. Drkušić
I. Diveev
Russia
78 I. Diveev
M. Mota Filho
Brazil
33 M. Mota Filho
D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
Substitution
Brazil
3 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
W. Barrios Terán
Colombia
5 W. Barrios Terán
L. Rosa da Silva
Brazil
11 L. Rosa da Silva
M. Glushenkov
Substitution
Russia
10 M. Glushenkov
M. Valle da Silva
Brazil
8 M. Valle da Silva
J. dos Santos Rosa
Substitution
Brazil
14 J. dos Santos Rosa
A. Sobolev
Russia
7 A. Sobolev
S. Agkatsev
Russia
1 S. Agkatsev
L. Olaza Catrofe
Uruguay
15 L. Olaza Catrofe
D. Costa Barbosa
Brazil
4 D. Costa Barbosa
V. Tormena de Farias
Brazil
3 V. Tormena de Farias
G. González Apud
Substitution
Uruguay
20 G. González Apud
D. Soares Gomes
Brazil
66 D. Soares Gomes
K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
Cape Verde
6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
J. Fortes Bachiessa
Substitution
Angola
11 J. Fortes Bachiessa
E. Spertsyan
Armenia
10 E. Spertsyan
N. Krivtsov
Substitution
Russia
88 N. Krivtsov
J. Córdoba Copete
Colombia
9 J. Córdoba Copete

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Gazprom Arena
Capacity
68000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sergey Karasev
Aleksey Lunev
Dmitri Safjan
Nikolay Voloshin

Statistics

Possession
ZSP
44%
KRA
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Shots 3
41 Dangerous attacks 43
42 Possession 58
0 Corners 5
20 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

23 Throwins 27
12 Successful Headers 20
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
7 Successful Dribbles 5
8 Goal Kicks 4
21 Dribble Attempts 8
1 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
65 Ball Safe 88
3 Goal Attempts 9
0 Injuries 2
3 Substitutions 3

Attacking

85 Attacks 89

Possession

243 Successful Passes 355
73 Successful Passes Percentage 78
331 Passes 453
66 Long Passes 60
28 Successful Long Passes 26
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

4 Interceptions 6
2 Saves 1
15 Tackles 19

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 14
0 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

16 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

16
Denis Adamov
Denis Adamov Goalkeeper
3
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos Defender
28
Nuraly Alip
Nuraly Alip
Defender90+2'
6
Vanja Drkusic
Vanja Drkusic Defender
33
Nino
Nino Defender
78
Igor Diveev
Igor Diveev Defender
5
Wilmar Barrios
Wilmar Barrios Midfielder
8
Wendel
Wendel Midfielder
10
Maksim Glushenkov
Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder
66
Román Vega
Román Vega
Defender82'
11
Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique Midfielder
14
Jhon Jhon
Jhon Jhon Midfielder
20
Pedro
Pedro
Attacker71'
7
Aleksandr Sobolev
Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker
Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

1
Stanislav Agkatsev
Stanislav Agkatsev Goalkeeper
3
Vítor Tormena
Vítor Tormena Defender
4
Diego Costa
Diego Costa Defender
15
Lucas Olaza
Lucas Olaza Defender
20
Giovanni González
Giovanni González Defender
17
Valentin Paltsev
Valentin Paltsev
Defender88'
6
Kevin Lenini
Kevin Lenini Midfielder
10
Eduard Spertsyan
Eduard Spertsyan Midfielder
11
João Batxi
João Batxi Midfielder
23
Juan Manuel Boselli
Juan Manuel Boselli
Attacker79'
66
Douglas Augusto
Douglas Augusto Midfielder
88
Nikita Krivtsov
Nikita Krivtsov Midfielder
90
Moses David Cobnan
Moses David Cobnan
Attacker89'
9
Jhon Córdoba
Jhon Córdoba Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Aleksandr Sobolev
Off the ball foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Nuraly Alip → Douglas Santos
6th Substitution
90+2'
89'
Event
Moses David Cobnan → Nikita Krivtsov
5th Substitution
88'
Event
Valentin Paltsev → Giovanni González
4th Substitution
86'
Event
Kevin Lenini
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Román Vega → Maksim Glushenkov
3rd Substitution
82'
Event
Pedro
Card adjusted
79'
79'
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli → João Batxi
2nd Substitution
Event
Pedro
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
78'
Event
Pedro
1st Yellow/red Card
78'
Event
Pedro → Jhon Jhon
1st Substitution
71'
69'
Event
Lucas Olaza
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
51'
Event
Nikita Krivtsov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
5th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Vanja Drkusic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
44'
Event
Wendel
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
27'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zenit exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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