Benfica vs Nacional Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Liga Portugal
Nacional
Nacional
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Benfica and Nacional is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 2-0 to the home side. Pre-match expectations had strongly favored Benfica with an 81 percent likelihood of victory against just 6 percent for Nacional, and the result delivered a significant deviation in Benfica's favor. As the stronger team throughout, they converted their superiority into a comfortable win, leading 2-0 at halftime and preventing any comeback. Benfica held 58 percent possession to Nacional's 42 percent, though expected goals data was unavailable. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned fully with the pre-match projection. No red cards were issued to either team, so the result was unaffected by disciplinary events.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Benfica showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Benfica
Nacional
Movement
Changes since opening
Benfica
Nacional
Team Power Ranking
i
38.92
13.71
Benfica
Nacional
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Benfica
Nacional
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Benfica
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Benfica
⚠ Proxy
Benfica
Nacional
Benfica
Nacional
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Benfica
Benfica
Nacional
Benfica
Nacional
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SLB had peak pressure around 44'.
- SLB started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:09:57+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Benfica
vs
Sporting CP
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sun, 19 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade
Nacional
vs
Alverca
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 2:30 PM
Venue: Estádio da Madeira
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary