Dender vs Zulte-Waregem Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Van Roystadion Sun, 12 Apr - 5:15 PM
Pro League
Dender DEN
1 Winner 2
Zulte-Waregem ZUL
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 5:15 PM
Round 2 Relegation Round
David Hrncar - 48'
Goal
|
Goal
Joseph Okopu - 55', 62'

CONTEXT

The match between Dender and Zulte-Waregem is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-2 to the visitors. The teams were level at 0-0 in the first half, but Zulte-Waregem found the necessary quality after the break to secure the win. Pre-match projections had given Dender a 30.6 percent rating for victory, the draw 28 percent, and Zulte-Waregem 41.4 percent. The away success therefore counted as a significant deviation in favor of Zulte-Waregem, even though the result ultimately aligned with the wider pre-match projection. Efficiency across the contest stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome proved consistent with the stronger team prevailing. Possession was almost equal, finishing at 48 percent for the home side and 52 percent for Zulte-Waregem. No expected goals data was available to provide further context, and no red cards were shown to either team, meaning the result was decided purely through open play and second-half adjustments. (148 words)

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zulte-Waregem showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Vergoote
J. Vergoote
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Dender Y. Ferrera
Y. Ferrera
VS
Zulte-Waregem S. Colpaert
S. Colpaert
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
La Louvière Rank: W
Gent Rank: L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: D
Cercle Brugge Rank: D
Sint-Truiden Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cercle Brugge Rank: D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Gent Rank: L
Standard Liège Rank: L
Mechelen Rank: L
Anderlecht Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dender
30.56%
Draw
28.03%
Away Zulte-Waregem
41.42%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dender
+30.37%
Draw
+24.3%
Zulte-Waregem
-54.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.9
16.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dender
Zulte-Waregem
Power Score
15.9
16.04
League Position
16
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dender — Opponent-weighted form score
Zulte-Waregem — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dender Zulte-Waregem

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dender

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zulte-Waregem

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dender ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zulte-Waregem
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.31
52.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
52.69
35.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dender -1.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Zulte-Waregem +1.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dender
Zulte-Waregem
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dender ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zulte-Waregem
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dender Zulte-Waregem
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dender Zulte-Waregem
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dender
Zulte-Waregem
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dender
vs
Zulte-Waregem
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dender Zulte-Waregem
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dender 0.38
Zulte-Waregem 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dender Zulte-Waregem
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dender 0.03
Zulte-Waregem 0.03
Dender
Zulte-Waregem
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZUL had peak pressure around 97'.
  • ZUL started the game with stronger pressure.
DEN Pressure ZUL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZUL reached the top pressure at 97' (57.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dender DEN Home
6 matches
Zulte-Waregem ZUL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
8
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T02:01:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
G. Gallon
France
93 G. Gallon
J. Sambu Mansoni
Belgium
70 J. Sambu Mansoni
L. Marijnissen
Netherlands
5 L. Marijnissen
B. De Kerf
6 B. De Kerf
B. Goncalves
Substitution
France
7 B. Goncalves
N. Rodes
Belgium
18 N. Rodes
M. Viltard
Substitution
France
24 M. Viltard
A. Jahanbakhsh
Iran
27 A. Jahanbakhsh
N. Mbamba
Belgium
17 N. Mbamba
D. Hrnčár
Substitution
Slovakia
20 D. Hrnčár
M. Berte
Substitution
Belgium
90 M. Berte
B. Gabriel
Belgium
13 B. Gabriel
L. Willen
Belgium
31 L. Willen
J. Kiilerich
Denmark
5 J. Kiilerich
L. Lemoine
Belgium
4 L. Lemoine
M. Ake
Substitution
France
39 M. Ake
E. Lofolomo
Germany
6 E. Lofolomo
D. Asare
Belgium
40 D. Asare
B. Nyssen
Substitution
Belgium
19 B. Nyssen
J. Erenbjerg
Denmark
10 J. Erenbjerg
J. Amankwaah Opoku
Substitution
22 J. Amankwaah Opoku
A. Ementa
Denmark
18 A. Ementa

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 05:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 2 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Van Roystadion
Capacity
8157
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jasper Vergoote

Statistics

Possession
DEN
47%
ZUL
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Shots 5
39 Dangerous attacks 68
48 Possession 52
2 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

19 Throwins 23
10 Dribble Attempts 7
1 Hit Woodwork 2
128 Ball Safe 101
1 Assists 2
4 Substitutions 4
8 Goal Attempts 11
0 Penalties 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

86 Attacks 142

Possession

403 Passes 438
312 Successful Passes 339
78 Successful Passes Percentage 77
37 Long Passes 37
9 Key Passes 16

Defensive

8 Interceptions 12
7 Saves 4
12 Tackles 11

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

12 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

93
Gauthier Gallon
Gauthier Gallon Goalkeeper
5
Luc Marijnissen
Luc Marijnissen Defender
6
Bo De Kerf
Bo De Kerf Defender
7
Bryan Goncalves
Bryan Goncalves Defender
15
Krzysztof Koton
Krzysztof Koton
Midfielder77'
70
Marsoni Sambu
Marsoni Sambu Defender
17
Noah Mbamba
Noah Mbamba Midfielder
18
Nathan Rôdes
Nathan Rôdes Midfielder
20
David Hrncar
David Hrncar Midfielder
46
Victor Elnora Lembi N'Zelo
Victor Elnora Lembi N'Zelo
Defender77'
24
Malcolm Viltard
Malcolm Viltard Midfielder
19
Jordan Kadiri
Jordan Kadiri
Attacker66'
27
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Alireza Jahanbakhsh Midfielder
90
Mohamed Berte
Mohamed Berte Attacker
9
David Toševski
David Toševski
Attacker57'
Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

13
Brent Gabriel
Brent Gabriel Goalkeeper
4
Laurent Lemoine
Laurent Lemoine Defender
5
Jakob Kiilerich
Jakob Kiilerich Defender
31
Lukas Willen
Lukas Willen Defender
6
Enrique Lofolomo
Enrique Lofolomo Midfielder
19
Benoit Nyssen
Benoit Nyssen Midfielder
12
Wilguens Paugain
Wilguens Paugain
Defender73'
39
Marley Ake
Marley Ake Midfielder
55
Yannick Cappelle
Yannick Cappelle
Defender84'
40
Dirk Asare
Dirk Asare Midfielder
10
Jeppe Erenbjerg
Jeppe Erenbjerg Attacker
18
Anosike Ementa
Anosike Ementa Attacker
22
Joseph Okopu
Joseph Okopu Attacker
2
30
Malick Mbaye
Malick Mbaye
Attacker73'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Tobias Hedl → Malick Mbaye
8th Substitution
90+4'
Event
2nd Missed Penalty
90+3'
Event
Enrique Lofolomo
1st Missed Penalty
90+1'
Event
Jeppe Erenbjerg
1st Var
84'
Event
Yannick Cappelle → Marley Ake
7th Substitution
Event
Krzysztof Koton → Bryan Goncalves
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Victor Elnora Lembi N'Zelo → David Hrncar
6th Substitution
77'
73'
Event
Malick Mbaye → Joseph Okopu
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Wilguens Paugain → Benoit Nyssen
4th Substitution
Event
David Toševski
2nd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Jordan Kadiri → Malcolm Viltard
2nd Substitution
66'
62'
Event
Joseph Okopu
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
David Toševski → Mohamed Berte
1st Substitution
57'
55'
Event
Joseph Okopu
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
David Hrncar
1st Yellowcard
50'
Event
David Hrncar
Field Goal / 1st Goal
48'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zulte-Waregem exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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