Brann vs Sandefjord Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Brann Stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 5:15 PM
Eliteserien
Brann SKB
0 Winner 1
Sandefjord Sandefjord
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 5:15 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
|
Goal
Sander Risan Mørk - 16'

CONTEXT

The match between Brann and Sandefjord is now finished, with the full-time score ending 0-1 to the visitors. Brann entered the fixture as clear favorites with a 60.6 percent implied win probability, while Sandefjord were given just 17.8 percent. The away victory therefore represented a significant deviation from expectations and saw Sandefjord, rather than the home side, outperform pre-match projections. No red cards were issued and no major disruptive events altered the flow, yet the visitors took a first-half lead and held firm despite trailing in territory. Brann dominated possession at 64 percent to 36 percent but created little of note. With no expected goals data available, it is impossible to quantify chance quality, though the efficiency shift stayed broadly in line with underlying team performances. The result ultimately proved inconsistent with the pre-match outlook, confirming Sandefjord as the stronger side on the day and delivering a result that defied the initial forecast.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sandefjord showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Hansen
T. Hansen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Lundberg
M. Lundberg
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
J. Knutsen
J. Knutsen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
O. Kellerhals
O. Kellerhals
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.02
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.54
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Brann F. Alexandersson
F. Alexandersson
VS
Sandefjord A. Tegström
A. Tegström
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.7
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
HamKam Rank: W
Tromsø Rank: L
Kristiansund Rank: L
HamKam Rank: W
Molde Rank: L
KFUM Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
KFUM Rank: W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: L
Vålerenga Rank: L
KFUM Rank: W
Strømsgodset Rank: W
Tromsø Rank: W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 6 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brann
60.64%
Draw
21.57%
Away Sandefjord
17.79%

Movement

Changes since opening
Brann
+60.45%
Draw
+15.92%
Sandefjord
-76.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.4
29.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brann
Sandefjord
Power Score
17.4
29.21
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brann — Opponent-weighted form score
Sandefjord — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brann Sandefjord

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brann

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sandefjord

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brann ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sandefjord
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.72
39.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.44
36.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brann -0.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Sandefjord +0.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brann
Sandefjord
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brann ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sandefjord
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brann Sandefjord
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brann Sandefjord
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Brann
Sandefjord
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Brann
vs
Sandefjord
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brann Sandefjord
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Brann 0.21
Sandefjord 0.54
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brann Sandefjord
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Brann 0.04
Sandefjord 0.00
Brann
Sandefjord
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SKB had peak pressure around 56'.
  • SKB started the game with stronger pressure.
SKB Pressure Sandefjord Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SKB reached the top pressure at 56' (92.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brann SKB Home
22 matches
Sandefjord Sandefjord Away
Match Record
14
Wins
2
6
Draws
6
2
Losses
14
Goals
47
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
47
+22
Goal Difference
-22
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:10:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Dyngeland
Norway
1 M. Dyngeland
D. De Roeve
Belgium
21 D. De Roeve
F. Pallesen Knudsen
Norway
3 F. Pallesen Knudsen
R. Holten
Substitution
Norway
43 R. Holten
V. Winger Dragsnes
Substitution
Norway
20 V. Winger Dragsnes
K. Eriksen
Substitution
Norway
16 K. Eriksen
J. Sørensen
Denmark
18 J. Sørensen
F. Horn Myhre
Norway
8 F. Horn Myhre
B. Finne
Substitution
Norway
11 B. Finne
N. Holm
Norway
29 N. Holm
J. Thorsteinsson
Substitution
Iceland
7 J. Thorsteinsson
E. Hadaya
Sweden
30 E. Hadaya
V. Walle Egeli
Norway
3 V. Walle Egeli
X. Lambrix
Belgium
44 X. Lambrix
Z. Smajlovic
Sweden
2 Z. Smajlovic
F. Pedersen
Norway
4 F. Pedersen
S. Mørk
Norway
6 S. Mørk
E. Sundbö Pettersen
Substitution
Norway
14 E. Sundbö Pettersen
J. Dunsby
Norway
27 J. Dunsby
J. Vester Nielsen
Substitution
Denmark
37 J. Vester Nielsen
B. Berntsen
Substitution
19 B. Berntsen
N. Moller
Substitution
Sweden
11 N. Moller

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 05:15 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Brann Stadion
Capacity
17686
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tore Hansen
Magnus Lundberg
Jon-Michael Knutsen
Ola Kellerhals

Statistics

Possession
SKB
61%
Sandefjord
39%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
14 Shots 5
90 Dangerous attacks 24
64 Possession 36
11 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 21
30 Throwins 29
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
8 Goal Kicks 9
0 Assists 1
5 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 4
97 Ball Safe 73
7 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

122 Attacks 75
2 Counter Attacks 5

Possession

21 Successful Long Passes 28
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
13 Key Passes 6
78 Successful Passes Percentage 69
534 Passes 321
419 Successful Passes 220
56 Long Passes 68

Defensive

8 Interceptions 8
27 Tackles 20
1 Saves 3

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 2
41 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

6 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI ▼

1
Mathias Dyngeland
Mathias Dyngeland Goalkeeper
3
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen Defender
20
V. Dragsnes
V. Dragsnes Defender
10
K. Ingason
K. Ingason
Attacker76'
21
Denzel De Roeve
Denzel De Roeve Defender
43
Rasmus Holten
Rasmus Holten Defender
23
Thore Pedersen
Thore Pedersen
Defender61'
8
Felix Horn Myhre
Felix Horn Myhre Midfielder
16
Kristian Eriksen
Kristian Eriksen Midfielder
17
Joachim Soltvedt
Joachim Soltvedt
Defender76'
18
Jacob Lungi Sørensen
Jacob Lungi Sørensen Midfielder
7
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson Attacker
14
Ulrik Mathisen
Ulrik Mathisen
Midfielder61'
11
Bård Finne
Bård Finne Attacker
32
Markus Haaland
Markus Haaland
Midfielder62'
29
Noah Holm
Noah Holm Attacker
Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI ▼

30
Elias Hadaya
Elias Hadaya Goalkeeper
2
Zinedin Smajlović
Zinedin Smajlović Defender
3
Vetle Walle Egeli
Vetle Walle Egeli Defender
4
Fredrik Carson Pedersen
Fredrik Carson Pedersen Defender
44
Xander Lambrix
Xander Lambrix Defender
6
Sander Risan Mørk
Sander Risan Mørk Midfielder
14
Edvard Sundbø Pettersen
Edvard Sundbø Pettersen Midfielder
47
Stian Kristiansen
Stian Kristiansen
Defender86'
19
Bendik Berntsen
Bendik Berntsen Midfielder
7
Evangelos Patoulidis
Evangelos Patoulidis
Midfielder58'
27
Jakob Dunsby
Jakob Dunsby Midfielder
37
Jakob Vester
Jakob Vester Midfielder
10
Ruben Alte
Ruben Alte
Midfielder54'
11
Nikolaj Möller
Nikolaj Möller Attacker
24
Sebastian Holm Mathisen
Sebastian Holm Mathisen
Attacker86'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Felix Horn Myhre
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Ruben Alte
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Stian Kristiansen → Edvard Sundbø Pettersen
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Sebastian Holm Mathisen → Nikolaj Möller
9th Substitution
Event
Joachim Soltvedt → Kristian Eriksen
7th Substitution
76'
Event
K. Ingason → V. Dragsnes
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Markus Haaland → Bård Finne
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Thore Pedersen → Rasmus Holten
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Ulrik Mathisen → Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
3rd Substitution
61'
58'
Event
Evangelos Patoulidis → Bendik Berntsen
2nd Substitution
55'
Event
Bendik Berntsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
54'
Event
Ruben Alte → Jakob Vester
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
16'
Event
Sander Risan Mørk
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sandefjord exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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