FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Mewa Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 5:30 PM
Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 M05
0 Winner 1
SC Freiburg SCF
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
Lucas Höler - 47'

CONTEXT

The match between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg is finished, with the full-time score 0-1 to the visitors. After a goalless first half, Freiburg scored once in the second period to secure the win. Possession was almost identical, finishing 51 percent for Mainz and 49 percent for Freiburg, while no red cards were shown and the contest remained free of major disciplinary incidents. The result showed only minimal deviation from pre-match expectations, with SC Freiburg the side that exceeded projections. Although Mainz were regarded as the stronger team overall, Freiburg proved more clinical. No expected goals information is available, but the efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match indications and the outcome aligned with the projected course of the game. Freiburg’s narrow success therefore matched the anticipated competitive balance, delivering a result that reflected steady rather than dramatic differences in execution across the 90 minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: SC Freiburg showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Petersen
M. Petersen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Robert Kempter
Robert Kempter
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
D. Schaal
D. Schaal
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
F. Zwayer
F. Zwayer
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
VS
SC Freiburg J. Schuster
J. Schuster
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Hamburger SV Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: L
St. Pauli Rank: W
FC Union Berlin Rank: L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FSV Mainz 05
0.19%
Draw
4.58%
Away SC Freiburg
95.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
FSV Mainz 05
0%
Draw
-0.51%
SC Freiburg
+0.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
39
26.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
Power Score
39
26.81
League Position
9
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FSV Mainz 05

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SC Freiburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FSV Mainz 05 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SC Freiburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.31
20.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.41
24.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FSV Mainz 05 +0.37 Efficiency Index
vs
SC Freiburg -0.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FSV Mainz 05 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SC Freiburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FSV Mainz 05
vs
SC Freiburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FSV Mainz 05 0.21
SC Freiburg 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FSV Mainz 05 0.03
SC Freiburg 0.00
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • M05 had peak pressure around 84'.
  • SCF started the game with stronger pressure.
M05 Pressure SCF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: M05 reached the top pressure at 84' (96.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FSV Mainz 05 M05 Home
31 matches
SC Freiburg SCF Away
Match Record
12
Wins
9
10
Draws
10
9
Losses
12
Goals
45
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
45
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:10:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Batz
Germany
33 D. Batz
D. Vieira da Costa
Substitution
Germany
21 D. Vieira da Costa
S. Posch
Austria
4 S. Posch
D. Kohr
Germany
31 D. Kohr
K. Sano
Japan
6 K. Sano
N. Veratschnig
Substitution
Austria
22 N. Veratschnig
S. Kawasaki
Substitution
Japan
24 S. Kawasaki
P. Nebel
Substitution
Germany
8 P. Nebel
P. Mwene
Substitution
Austria
2 P. Mwene
P. Tietz
Germany
20 P. Tietz
S. Becker
Suriname
23 S. Becker
N. Atubolu
Germany
1 N. Atubolu
C. Günter
Germany
30 C. Günter
B. Ogbus
Substitution
Switzerland
43 B. Ogbus
M. Ginter
Substitution
Germany
28 M. Ginter
L. Kübler
Substitution
Germany
17 L. Kübler
J. Manzambi
Switzerland
44 J. Manzambi
M. Eggestein
Germany
8 M. Eggestein
D. Scherhant
Substitution
Germany
7 D. Scherhant
L. Höler
Germany
9 L. Höler
C. Irié
Substitution
Ivory Coast
22 C. Irié
I. Matanovic
Croatia
31 I. Matanovic

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Mewa Arena
Capacity
34000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Martin Petersen
Robert Kempter
Dominik Schaal
Felix Zwayer

Statistics

Possession
M05
52%
SCF
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
10 Shots 8
48 Dangerous attacks 40
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 10
27 Throwins 22
7 Successful Dribbles 7
8 Dribble Attempts 15
16 Successful Headers 20
88 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
1 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Injuries 2
9 Goal Attempts 5
71 Ball Safe 67
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

88 Attacks 67

Possession

7 Key Passes 7
75 Successful Passes Percentage 80
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
340 Passes 341
254 Successful Passes 272
58 Long Passes 41
32 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

23 Tackles 12
6 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 3

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Felix Zwayer

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa Defender
44
Nelson Weiper
Nelson Weiper
Attacker83'
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
2
Phillipp Mwene
Phillipp Mwene Midfielder
19
Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci
Defender74'
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
11
Armindo Sieb
Armindo Sieb
Attacker74'
22
Nikolas Veratschnig
Nikolas Veratschnig Midfielder
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer
Defender62'
24
Sota Kawasaki
Sota Kawasaki Midfielder
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri
Midfielder62'
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
Referee : Felix Zwayer

Starting XI ▼

1
Noah Atubolu
Noah Atubolu Goalkeeper
17
Lukas Kübler
Lukas Kübler Defender
29
Philipp Treu
Philipp Treu
Defender64'
28
Matthias Ginter
Matthias Ginter Defender
33
Jordy Makengo
Jordy Makengo
Defender83'
30
Christian Günter
Christian Günter Defender
43
Bruno Ogbus
Bruno Ogbus Defender
3
Philipp Lienhart
Philipp Lienhart
Defender46'
7
Derry Scherhant
Derry Scherhant Midfielder
32
Vincenzo Grifo
Vincenzo Grifo
Midfielder74'
8
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein Midfielder
9
Lucas Höler
Lucas Höler Midfielder
22
Cyriaque Irié
Cyriaque Irié Midfielder
19
Niklas Beste
Niklas Beste
Defender64'
44
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi Midfielder
31
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nelson Weiper → Danny da Costa
10th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Jordy Makengo → Matthias Ginter
9th Substitution
Event
Anthony Caci → Phillipp Mwene
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Armindo Sieb → Paul Nebel
8th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Vincenzo Grifo → Derry Scherhant
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Lucas Höler
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
64'
Event
Niklas Beste → Cyriaque Irié
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Philipp Treu → Lukas Kübler
5th Substitution
Event
Nadiem Amiri → Sota Kawasaki
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Silvan Widmer → Nikolas Veratschnig
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Nikolas Veratschnig
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
47'
Event
Lucas Höler
Header / 1st Goal
46'
Event
Philipp Lienhart → Bruno Ogbus
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Maximilian Eggestein
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45+4'
Event
Julian Schuster
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
33'
Event
Bruno Ogbus
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
Event
Julian Schuster
5th Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with 1. FSV Mainz 05 losing 0-1 to SC Freiburg.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SC Freiburg after Stefan Posch concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Armindo Sieb of 1. FSV Mainz 05 heads the ball from the center of the box.
89
Update Update
Johan Manzambi of SC Freiburg won a free kick in defense.
85
Update Update
Igor Matanovic commits a handball for SC Freiburg.
84
Update Update
Fouled by Phillip Tietz of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
84
Update Update
Maximilian Eggestein of SC Freiburg won a free kick in defense.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Nelson Weiper replaces Danny da Costa.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Jordy Makengo replaces Matthias Ginter due to injury.
83
Update Update
Dominik Kohr from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Höler of SC Freiburg.
81
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Matthias Ginter of SC Freiburg.
81
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Sheraldo Becker from 1. FSV Mainz 05 shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after being conceded by Igor Matanovic.
79
Update Update
Kaishu Sano from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick on the left wing.
79
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Silvan Widmer of 1. FSV Mainz 05 has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Noah Atubolu of SC Freiburg, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist came from Sheraldo Becker.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Niklas Beste of SC Freiburg.
76
Update Update
Offside called against 1. FSV Mainz 05. Phillip Tietz is offside.
75
Update Update
Handball by Armindo Sieb of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Armindo Sieb replaces Paul Nebel.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Anthony Caci replaces Phillipp Mwene.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Vincenzo Grifo replaces Derry Scherhant.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Höler of SC Freiburg.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Höler of SC Freiburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
73
Update Update
Dominik Kohr from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
72
Attempt Attempt
Derry Scherhant's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Lucas Höler provided the assist.
72
Attempt Attempt
Matthias Ginter's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Philipp Lienhart, who headed the ball.
71
Update Update
Derry Scherhant of SC Freiburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
71
Update Update
Fouled by Silvan Widmer of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
70
Update Update
Silvan Widmer from 1. FSV Mainz 05 heads the ball from the center of the box but misses the target, sending it high and wide to the left. The assist came from Phillipp Mwene's cross.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Philipp Treu concedes.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Philipp Treu replaces Lukas Kübler.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Philipp Treu replaces Lukas Kübler.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Niklas Beste replaces Cyriaque Irié.
63
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Kohr's right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box is blocked.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Philipp Lienhart concedes.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Silvan Widmer replaces Nikolas Veratschnig.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Nadiem Amiri replaces Sota Kawasaki.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SC Freiburg after a concession by Stefan Posch.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SC Freiburg after a concession by Daniel Batz.
60
Corner Corner
SC Freiburg wins a corner after Daniel Batz concedes.
60
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Johan Manzambi of SC Freiburg shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but Daniel Batz of 1. FSV Mainz 05 saves it in the top center of the goal.
60
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg heads the ball from close range, but it's saved in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Derry Scherhant with a cross.
59
Update Update
Johan Manzambi of SC Freiburg won a free kick on the right wing.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Igor Matanovic - SC Freiburg - shot with the head from the centre of the box is very close to the goal. Assist - Derry Scherhant with a cross .
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nikolas Veratschnig from 1. FSV Mainz 05 receives a yellow card for a foul.
55
Update Update
Johan Manzambi of SC Freiburg won a free kick on the left wing.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Nikolas Veratschnig of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
52
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Tietz's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Sheraldo Becker.
52
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Sheraldo Becker from 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes a right-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it's saved by goalkeeper Noah Atubolu in the center of the goal for SC Freiburg.
50
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Dominik Kohr from 1. FSV Mainz 05.
48
Update Update
Offside called against Sheraldo Becker of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! SC Freiburg takes the lead 1-0 against 1. FSV Mainz 05. Lucas Höler scores with a header from the center of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Matthias Ginter.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Philipp Lienhart replaces Bruno Ogbus.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Matthias Ginter of SC Freiburg.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Offside called against 1. FSV Mainz 05. Phillip Tietz is offside.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at 0-0 between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maximilian Eggestein of SC Freiburg receives a yellow card.
45
Update Update
Sheraldo Becker of 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg.
43
Update Update
Phillipp Mwene from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick on the left wing.
43
Update Update
Cyriaque Irié of SC Freiburg commits a foul.
42
Update Update
Paul Nebel from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in the attacking area.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Lukas Kübler of SC Freiburg.
40
Update Update
Christian Günter of SC Freiburg commits dangerous play.
40
Update Update
Nikolas Veratschnig from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
37
Update Update
Igor Matanovic commits a handball for SC Freiburg.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after a concession by Igor Matanovic.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Matthias Ginter concedes.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bruno Ogbus of SC Freiburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
33
Update Update
Sheraldo Becker of 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick on the right wing.
33
Update Update
Fouled by Bruno Ogbus of SC Freiburg.
32
Update Update
Johan Manzambi of SC Freiburg won a free kick in defense.
31
Attempt Attempt
Nikolas Veratschnig from 1. FSV Mainz 05 misses a chance as his right-footed shot from the right side of the box goes over the bar. The assist was provided by Paul Nebel with a cross.
30
Update Update
Lukas Kübler of SC Freiburg is flagged for offside.
27
Update Update
Nikolas Veratschnig from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
27
Update Update
Derry Scherhant of SC Freiburg is penalized for dangerous play.
26
Corner Corner
Stefan Posch from 1. FSV Mainz 05 attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Noah Atubolu from SC Freiburg saves it in the top left corner. The assist comes from Paul Nebel.
25
Update Update
Cyriaque Irié commits a handball for SC Freiburg.
22
Attempt Attempt
Danny da Costa from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has a missed chance as his right-footed shot from outside the box goes over the goal.
20
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Matthias Ginter from SC Freiburg.
19
Update Update
Matthias Ginter of SC Freiburg won a free kick in defense.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Matthias Ginter concedes.
15
Update Update
Noah Atubolu from SC Freiburg won a free kick in defense.
14
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes high and wide to the left. The assist was provided by Lukas Kübler with a cross.
13
Update Update
Lucas Höler of SC Freiburg won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
Stefan Posch of 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
Igor Matanovic from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Cyriaque Irié of SC Freiburg is flagged for offside.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: SC Freiburg exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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