Reggiana vs Carrarese Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Sun, 12 Apr - 5:30 PM
Serie B
Reggiana Reggiana
2 Winner 0
Carrarese CAR
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Manolo Portanova - 14'
Massimo Bertagnoli - 28'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Reggiana and Carrarese is finished, with Reggiana winning 2-0 at full time after leading 2-0 at halftime. The home side scored both goals in the opening period and then held firm despite being outplayed in terms of territory. Carrarese dominated possession with 67 percent compared to Reggiana’s 33 percent, yet failed to convert their control into chances. Pre-match expectations had Carrarese as the stronger team and clear favorites, but the result represented a significant deviation in favor of Reggiana. The efficiency shift stayed in line with, allowing the underdogs to punish their opponents on the few opportunities they created. With no expected goals data available, the outcome did not align with the pre-match projection and produced an upset result. No red cards were shown and no other major events altered the flow. Reggiana’s clinical first-half display proved decisive in a contest where the away side’s territorial advantage ultimately counted for little.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Reggiana showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Di Cicco
G. Di Cicco
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
G. Zanellati
G. Zanellati
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
L. Massimi
L. Massimi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
C. Rossi
C. Rossi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.83
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Reggiana P. Bisoli
P. Bisoli
VS
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
0.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: L
Virtus Entella Rank: L
Monza Rank: D
Bari 1908 Rank: L
Venezia Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: W
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Palermo Rank: L
Catanzaro Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Reggiana
28.46%
Draw
30.28%
Away Carrarese
41.26%

Movement

Changes since opening
Reggiana
-69.43%
Draw
+28.36%
Carrarese
+41.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.4
24.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Reggiana
Carrarese
Power Score
12.4
24.11
League Position
18
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Reggiana — Opponent-weighted form score
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Reggiana Carrarese

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Reggiana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Carrarese
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.64
33.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.13
33.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Reggiana +0.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Carrarese -0.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Reggiana
Carrarese
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Carrarese
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Reggiana Carrarese
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Reggiana Carrarese
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Reggiana
Carrarese
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Reggiana
vs
Carrarese
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Reggiana Carrarese
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Reggiana 0.45
Carrarese 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Reggiana Carrarese
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Reggiana 0.00
Carrarese 0.09
Reggiana
Carrarese
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAR had peak pressure around 1'.
  • CAR started the game with stronger pressure.
Reggiana Pressure CAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAR reached the top pressure at 1' (91.65).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Reggiana Reggiana Home
3 matches
Carrarese CAR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T02:01:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Micai
Italy
1 A. Micai
L. Libutti
Italy
17 L. Libutti
F. Vicari
Italy
34 F. Vicari
M. Vanelli Lusuardi
Brazil
47 M. Vanelli Lusuardi
S. Bonetti
Italy
43 S. Bonetti
M. Bertagnoli
Substitution
Italy
26 M. Bertagnoli
T. Reinhart
Argentina
16 T. Reinhart
M. Portanova
Substitution
Italy
90 M. Portanova
M. Lambourde
Substitution
France
93 M. Lambourde
K. Bozhanaj
Substitution
Albania
10 K. Bozhanaj
C. Gondo
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 C. Gondo
M. Bleve
Italy
1 M. Bleve
F. Ruggeri
Italy
26 F. Ruggeri
F. Oliana
Substitution
Italy
6 F. Oliana
N. Calabrese
Substitution
Italy
37 N. Calabrese
J. Rouhi
Substitution
Sweden
73 J. Rouhi
L. Hasa
Italy
70 L. Hasa
E. Zuelli
Italy
17 E. Zuelli
G. Parlanti
Substitution
Italy
77 G. Parlanti
S. Zanon
Italy
72 S. Zanon
F. Abiuso
Italy
9 F. Abiuso
M. Finotto
Substitution
Italy
32 M. Finotto

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Capacity
21584
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Giorgio Di Cicco
Glauco Zanellati
Luca Massimi
Christian Rossi

Statistics

Possession
Reggiana
36%
CAR
64%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 7
22 Dangerous attacks 64
33 Possession 67
4 Corners 8
12 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

12 Goal Kicks 5
68 Ball Safe 64
17 Throwins 27
8 Successful Dribbles 10
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
14 Dribble Attempts 21
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Assists 0
6 Goal Attempts 14
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

58 Attacks 119
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

45 Long Passes 58
75 Successful Passes Percentage 88
253 Passes 500
8 Key Passes 17
190 Successful Passes 440
13 Successful Long Passes 38
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66

Defensive

9 Interceptions 8
17 Tackles 20
1 Saves 2

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 39
3 Accurate Crosses 15

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Luca Massimi

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Micai
Alessandro Micai Goalkeeper
17
Lorenzo Libutti
Lorenzo Libutti Defender
34
Francesco Vicari
Francesco Vicari Defender
43
Simone Bonetti
Simone Bonetti Defender
47
Mateus Lusuardi
Mateus Lusuardi Defender
10
Kleis Bozhanaj
Kleis Bozhanaj Midfielder
8
Charlys
Charlys
Midfielder64'
16
Tobías Reinhart
Tobías Reinhart Midfielder
26
Massimo Bertagnoli
Massimo Bertagnoli Midfielder
23
Matteo Rover
Matteo Rover
Attacker64'
90
Manolo Portanova
Manolo Portanova Midfielder
6
Francesco Vallarelli
Francesco Vallarelli
Midfielder85'
93
Mathis Lambourde
Mathis Lambourde Midfielder
9
Andrija Novakovich
Andrija Novakovich
Attacker73'
11
Cedric Gondo
Cedric Gondo Attacker
77
Tommaso Fumagalli
Tommaso Fumagalli
Attacker86'
Referee : Luca Massimi

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
6
Filippo Oliana
Filippo Oliana Defender
4
Julián Illanes
Julián Illanes
Defender64'
26
Fabio Andrea Ruggeri
Fabio Andrea Ruggeri Defender
37
Nicolò Calabrese
Nicolò Calabrese Defender
44
Nikola Sekulov
Nikola Sekulov
Attacker80'
17
Emanuele Zuelli
Emanuele Zuelli Midfielder
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa Midfielder
72
Simone Zanon
Simone Zanon Midfielder
73
Jonas Rouhi
Jonas Rouhi Midfielder
8
Filippo Melegoni
Filippo Melegoni
Midfielder73'
77
Gabriele Parlanti
Gabriele Parlanti Midfielder
21
Tommaso Rubino
Tommaso Rubino
Attacker46'
9
Fabio Abiuso
Fabio Abiuso Attacker
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto Attacker
28
Filippo Distefano
Filippo Distefano
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Simone Zanon
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Tommaso Fumagalli → Cedric Gondo
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Francesco Vallarelli → Manolo Portanova
9th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Luis Hasa
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Nikola Sekulov → Nicolò Calabrese
8th Substitution
Event
Andrija Novakovich → Mathis Lambourde
7th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Filippo Melegoni → Jonas Rouhi
6th Substitution
Event
Matteo Rover → Massimo Bertagnoli
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Charlys → Kleis Bozhanaj
3rd Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Julián Illanes → Filippo Oliana
4th Substitution
Event
Tobías Reinhart
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
46'
Event
Filippo Distefano → Mattia Finotto
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Tommaso Rubino → Gabriele Parlanti
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kleis Bozhanaj
Penalty disallowed
45+2'
Event
Massimo Bertagnoli
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
28'
23'
Event
Nicolò Calabrese
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Manolo Portanova
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Reggiana exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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