Racing Santander vs Almería Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Campos de Sport de El Sardinero Sun, 12 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Racing Santander RAC
5 Winner 1
Almería ALM
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Andrés Martín - 21'
Iñigo Vicente - 28'
Asier Villalibre - 79'
Peio Canales - 82'
Marco Sangalli - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Adrián Embarba - 12'
Mario García 75' Red Card
|
Red Card Dion Lopy 45+5'

CONTEXT

The match between Racing Santander and Almería is now finished, ending 5-1 to the home side after a 2-1 half-time scoreline. Racing Santander, already regarded as the stronger team beforehand, delivered a comprehensive victory that showed only minimal deviation from pre-match expectations. With home probability rated extremely high in advance, the result aligned closely with that projection and produced an efficiency shift that stayed in line with anticipated patterns. Racing Santander held 57 percent possession to Almería’s 43 percent, dictating the flow for long periods. Both teams received a red card, creating noticeable second-half distortion that contributed to the lopsided final margin as Racing pulled clear. Although expected goals data was unavailable, the outcome proved consistent with the pre-match view that the home side would prevail, confirming their superiority on the day without any major upset. The result leaves no doubt about Racing Santander’s dominance once the numerical imbalances took effect, turning a promising position at the interval into a convincing full-time success.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Racing Santander showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Sánchez López
R. Sánchez López
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
J. Mira García
J. Mira García
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
J. Hernández García
J. Hernández García
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
A. Clemente Ortuño
A. Clemente Ortuño
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Racing Santander J. López Menéndez
J. López Menéndez
VS
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
1.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.84
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Andorra Rank: L
Sporting Gijón Rank: W
Real Zaragoza Rank: L
Albacete Rank: L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: W
Córdoba Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leganés Rank: W
Castellón Rank: L
Real Sociedad II Rank: W
Huesca Rank: W
Real Zaragoza Rank: L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 6 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Racing Santander
95.12%
Draw
3.7%
Away Almería
1.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.5
29.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Racing Santander
Almería
Power Score
29.5
29.07
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Racing Santander — Opponent-weighted form score
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Racing Santander Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Racing Santander

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Racing Santander ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.74
28.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.02
49.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Racing Santander +2.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Almería -2.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Racing Santander
Almería
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Racing Santander ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Racing Santander Almería
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Racing Santander Almería
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Racing Santander
Almería
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Racing Santander
vs
Almería
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Racing Santander Almería
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Racing Santander 0.55
Almería 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Racing Santander Almería
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Racing Santander 0.02
Almería 0.11
Racing Santander
Almería
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAC had peak pressure around 71'.
  • RAC started the game with stronger pressure.
RAC Pressure ALM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAC reached the top pressure at 71' (88.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Racing Santander RAC Home
17 matches
Almería ALM Away
Match Record
6
Wins
5
6
Draws
6
5
Losses
6
Goals
21
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
21
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T02:02:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Lars Eriksson
Sweden
13 Lars Eriksson
J. Castro Urdín
Spain
5 J. Castro Urdín
J. Hernando Riol
Spain
4 J. Hernando Riol
P. Ramón Parra
Substitution
Spain
21 P. Ramón Parra
M. García Alvear
Spain
3 M. García Alvear
M. Gueye
Senegal
14 M. Gueye
G. Puerta Molano
Substitution
Colombia
19 G. Puerta Molano
A. Martín García
Substitution
Spain
11 A. Martín García
P. Canales Urtasun
Spain
18 P. Canales Urtasun
I. Vicente Elorduy
Substitution
Spain
10 I. Vicente Elorduy
G. Guliashvili
Substitution
Georgia
7 G. Guliashvili
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
N. Macedo Monte
Portugal
4 N. Macedo Monte
M. Ruiz
Spain
16 M. Ruiz
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
I. Mohammed
Substitution
Ghana
14 I. Mohammed
N. Melamed Ribaudo
Substitution
Spain
10 N. Melamed Ribaudo
A. Embarba Blázquez
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Campos de Sport de El Sardinero
Capacity
22308
Attendance
22128
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rafael Sánchez López
Jesús Manuel Mira García
José Hernández García
Alejandro Clemente Ortuño

Statistics

Possession
RAC
56%
ALM
44%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 1
47 Dangerous attacks 41
57 Possession 43
8 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

76 Ball Safe 75
2 Injuries 0
19 Goal Attempts 9
16 Dribble Attempts 20
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
8 Goal Kicks 6
14 Throwins 16
9 Successful Dribbles 11
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

82 Attacks 77
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

442 Successful Passes 315
89 Successful Passes Percentage 84
17 Successful Long Passes 21
496 Passes 376
22 Key Passes 7
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
38 Long Passes 50

Defensive

13 Tackles 19
11 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 8

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 1
15 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

3 Offsides 4
13 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Sánchez López

Starting XI ▼

13
Simon Eriksson
Simon Eriksson Goalkeeper
3
Mario García
Mario García Defender
4
Manu Hernando
Manu Hernando Defender
5
Javi Castro
Javi Castro Defender
21
Pablo Ramón
Pablo Ramón Defender
15
Marco Sangalli
Marco Sangalli
Attacker72'
10
Iñigo Vicente
Iñigo Vicente Midfielder
20
Suleiman Camara
Suleiman Camara
Attacker80'
11
Andrés Martín
Andrés Martín Midfielder
23
Damián Rodríguez
Damián Rodríguez
Midfielder89'
14
Maguette Gueye
Maguette Gueye Midfielder
18
Peio Canales
Peio Canales Midfielder
19
Gustavo Puerta
Gustavo Puerta Midfielder
6
Íñigo Sainz-Maza
Íñigo Sainz-Maza
Midfielder89'
7
Giorgi Guliashvili
Giorgi Guliashvili Attacker
12
Asier Villalibre
Asier Villalibre
Attacker72'
Referee : Rafael Sánchez López

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
4
Nélson Monte
Nélson Monte Defender
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Defender
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed Midfielder
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder46'
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
6
André Horta
André Horta
Midfielder71'
14
Iddrisu Baba
Iddrisu Baba Midfielder
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic
Midfielder46'
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Midfielder
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker83'
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
19
Patrick Soko
Patrick Soko
Attacker71'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Íñigo Sainz-Maza → Gustavo Puerta
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Damián Rodríguez → Andrés Martín
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Marco Sangalli
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
88'
83'
Event
Jon Morcillo → Adrián Embarba
8th Substitution
Event
Peio Canales
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
82'
Event
Suleiman Camara → Iñigo Vicente
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Asier Villalibre
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
79'
Event
Mario García
Foul / 2nd Redcard
75'
Event
Marco Sangalli → Pablo Ramón
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Asier Villalibre → Giorgi Guliashvili
6th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
André Horta → Sergio Arribas
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Patrick Soko → Miguel de la Fuente
4th Substitution
Event
Pablo Ramón
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
63'
61'
Event
Marcos Luna
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Giorgi Guliashvili
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
50'
46'
Event
Stefan Dzodic → Iddrisu Baba
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Arnau Puigmal → Nico Melamed
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Dion Lopy
Foul / 1st Redcard
45+4'
Event
Rubi
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Andrés Martín
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Iñigo Vicente
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
28'
Event
Manu Hernando
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Andrés Martín
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
21'
19'
Event
Nélson Monte
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'
Event
Adrián Embarba
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Racing Santander exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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