İstanbul Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu Sat, 11 Apr - 11:30 AM
Super Lig
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
3 Winner 0
Gençlerbirliği GSK
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 29 Regular Season
Eldor Shomurodov - 9', 40'
Bertuğ Yıldırım - 42'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between İstanbul Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 3-1 in favor of the home side. İstanbul Başakşehir raced into a commanding 3-0 lead by halftime and successfully protected their advantage after the break, securing a straightforward victory. Pre-match expectations positioned İstanbul Başakşehir as the much stronger side, and the outcome reflected only minimal deviation from that view. The result stayed closely in line with projections, as the home team delivered a performance that matched their anticipated superiority. Possession was perfectly balanced at 50 percent each, with no expected goals data available to provide further insight. The efficiency shift across the match remained in line with expectations, and the absence of any red cards meant the contest was unaffected by disciplinary disruptions. Overall, the final score aligned fully with the pre-match projection for a home win, confirming Başakşehir’s control of the fixture from start to finish. (148 words)

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: İstanbul Başakşehir showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
H. Aylak
H. Aylak
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
A. Alp
A. Alp
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
?. Gültekin
?. Gültekin
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
A. Şansalan
A. Şansalan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
VS
Gençlerbirliği V. Demirel
V. Demirel
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor Rank: D
Antalyaspor Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: L
Göztepe Rank: W
Konyaspor Rank: W
Alanyaspor Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Göztepe Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: L
Beşiktaş Rank: L
Alanyaspor Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: D
Eyüpspor Rank: L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 6 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home İstanbul Başakşehir
97.6%
Draw
1.91%
Away Gençlerbirliği
0.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.15
16.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
İstanbul Başakşehir
Gençlerbirliği
Power Score
30.15
16.31
League Position
5
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Gençlerbirliği — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) İstanbul Başakşehir Gençlerbirliği

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gençlerbirliği

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

İstanbul Başakşehir ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gençlerbirliği
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.00
26.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.70
48.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
İstanbul Başakşehir +2.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Gençlerbirliği -2.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
İstanbul Başakşehir
Gençlerbirliği
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

İstanbul Başakşehir ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gençlerbirliği
Created Set-piece attacking threat
İstanbul Başakşehir Gençlerbirliği
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
İstanbul Başakşehir Gençlerbirliği
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
İstanbul Başakşehir
Gençlerbirliği
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
İstanbul Başakşehir
vs
Gençlerbirliği
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
İstanbul Başakşehir Gençlerbirliği
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.35
Gençlerbirliği 0.44
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
İstanbul Başakşehir Gençlerbirliği
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.00
Gençlerbirliği 0.05
İstanbul Başakşehir
Gençlerbirliği
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • IBA had peak pressure around 77'.
  • IBA started the game with stronger pressure.
IBA Pressure GSK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: IBA reached the top pressure at 77' (98.72).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Home
25 matches
Gençlerbirliği GSK Away
Match Record
9
Wins
10
6
Draws
6
10
Losses
9
Goals
25
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
25
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:03:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
M. Şengezer
Turkey
16 M. Şengezer
Ö. Şahiner
Substitution
Turkey
42 Ö. Şahiner
L. Duarte da Silva
Brazil
5 L. Duarte da Silva
J. Opoku
Ghana
3 J. Opoku
C. Operi
Substitution
France
21 C. Operi
O. Kemen
Cameroon
8 O. Kemen
U. Güneş
Substitution
Turkey
20 U. Güneş
Y. Sari
Turkey
7 Y. Sari
14
14
I. Brnić
Croatia
77 I. Brnić
B. Yıldırım
Substitution
Turkey
91 B. Yıldırım
M. Silva Velho
Portugal
24 M. Silva Velho
M. Hanousek
Czech Republic
23 M. Hanousek
Ž. Žužek
Slovenia
4 Ž. Žužek
T. da Silva
Brazil
2 T. da Silva
P. Almeida Lopes Pereira
Portugal
13 P. Almeida Lopes Pereira
A. Dele-Bashiru
Nigeria
15 A. Dele-Bashiru
H. Chukwuemeka Onyekuru
Substitution
Nigeria
7 H. Chukwuemeka Onyekuru
F. Tongya Heubang
Substitution
Italy
70 F. Tongya Heubang
O. Ülgün
Substitution
Turkey
35 O. Ülgün
G. Gürpüz
Substitution
Turkey
11 G. Gürpüz
S. Koita
Substitution
Mali
22 S. Koita

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu
Capacity
17156
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
H. Aylak
Ali Can Alp
Ömer Faruk Gültekin
Ali Şansalan

Statistics

Possession
IBA
53%
GSK
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 8
60 Dangerous attacks 27
50 Possession 50
4 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
16 Dribble Attempts 12
19 Throwins 7
9 Successful Dribbles 6
8 Goal Kicks 6
13 Successful Headers 10
5 Substitutions 5
3 Assists 0
74 Ball Safe 76
13 Goal Attempts 8
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

104 Attacks 78
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 83
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
369 Successful Passes 356
425 Passes 430
68 Long Passes 61
42 Successful Long Passes 28
13 Key Passes 9

Defensive

7 Interceptions 5
11 Tackles 15
3 Saves 7

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 11
9 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

4 Offsides 4
19 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Ali Şansalan

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Defender
5
Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte Defender
21
Christopher Operi
Christopher Operi Defender
88
Kazımcan Karataş
Kazımcan Karataş
Defender59'
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner Defender
6
Onur Bulut
Onur Bulut
Defender59'
7
Yusuf Sarı
Yusuf Sarı Midfielder
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Midfielder
14
Eldor Shomurodov Midfielder
20
Umut Güneş
Umut Güneş Midfielder
18
Jakub Kaluzinski
Jakub Kaluzinski
Midfielder68'
77
Ivan Brnic
Ivan Brnic Midfielder
91
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Bertuğ Yıldırım Attacker
13
Miguel Crespo
Miguel Crespo
Midfielder59'
Referee : Ali Şansalan

Starting XI ▼

24
Ricardo Velho
Ricardo Velho Goalkeeper
2
Thalisson
Thalisson Defender
4
Zan Zuzek
Zan Zuzek Defender
13
Pedro Pereira
Pedro Pereira Defender
23
Matej Hanousek
Matej Hanousek Defender
7
Henry Onyekuru
Henry Onyekuru Midfielder
20
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré
Attacker46'
11
Göktan Gürpüz
Göktan Gürpüz Midfielder
8
Samed Onur
Samed Onur
Midfielder77'
15
Tom Dele-Bashiru
Tom Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
35
Oğulcan Ülgün
Oğulcan Ülgün Midfielder
29
M'Baye Niang
M'Baye Niang
Attacker46'
70
Franco Tongya
Franco Tongya Midfielder
99
Cihan Çanak
Cihan Çanak
Attacker62'
22
Sékou Koïta
Sékou Koïta Attacker
10
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Attacker62'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Var
Event
Davie Selke → Eldor Shomurodov
10th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Samed Onur → Göktan Gürpüz
9th Substitution
Event
Jakub Kaluzinski → Umut Güneş
8th Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Adama Traoré
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Metehan Mimaroğlu → Sékou Koïta
7th Substitution
62'
Event
Cihan Çanak → Franco Tongya
6th Substitution
Event
Onur Bulut → Ömer Ali Şahiner
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Miguel Crespo → Bertuğ Yıldırım
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Kazımcan Karataş → Christopher Operi
5th Substitution
59'
46'
Event
Adama Traoré → Henry Onyekuru
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
M'Baye Niang → Oğulcan Ülgün
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Header / 3rd Goal
42'
Event
Eldor Shomurodov
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
40'
Event
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
Event
Eldor Shomurodov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
9'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: İstanbul Başakşehir exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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