Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Premier League
AFC Bournemouth
BOU
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Arsenal and AFC Bournemouth is finished, with the full-time score Arsenal 0-1 AFC Bournemouth. Pre-match expectations pointed strongly toward an Arsenal victory, with the home side given a 65.2 percent likelihood of success against just 13.1 percent for the visitors. The result marked a significant deviation from that outlook, as AFC Bournemouth, not regarded as the stronger team, produced an upset win. This outcome did not align with the pre-match projection, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with broader expectations. Arsenal held a slight edge in possession at 53 percent to Bournemouth’s 47 percent, but no expected goals data was available to provide further context on chance quality. Neither side received a red card, and no major disciplinary events altered the flow of play. Overall the contest delivered a result that ran counter to the anticipated dominance from the home team.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: AFC Bournemouth showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Movement
Changes since opening
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Team Power Ranking
i
39.12
24.4
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Arsenal
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Arsenal
⚠ Proxy
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Arsenal
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- ARS had peak pressure around 36'.
- ARS started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:02:15+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Arsenal
vs
Sporting CP
League: Champions League
Kickoff: Wed, 15 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Emirates Stadium
AFC Bournemouth
vs
Newcastle United
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM
Venue: St. James' Park
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼
















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Match Commentary