Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Tsentralnyi Stadion Sat, 11 Apr - 12:30 PM
Premier League
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1 Winner 0
Dynamo Kyiv DYN
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 23 Regular Season
Denys Antyukh - 78'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defeating Dynamo Kyiv 1-0. The home side secured a narrow victory through a single second-half goal after an even first half that ended 0-0. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Dynamo Kyiv had been viewed as the stronger team and clear favorites, yet Metalist 1925 Kharkiv produced an upset win. Dynamo Kyiv dominated possession with 65 percent to the home team’s 35 percent. No expected goals data was available to measure chance quality, so alignment with underlying performance could not be determined. The efficiency shift stayed in line with the final result, allowing the home side to convert limited opportunities effectively while the visitors could not capitalize on their territorial advantage. No red cards were issued and no major disruptive events altered the flow of play. Overall the outcome did not align with the pre-match projection that anticipated a Dynamo Kyiv victory. The result underscores how a well-organized defensive effort and clinical finishing can overcome a substantial disparity in possession and expected strength.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Blavatskiy

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Zaporozhenko

1st Assistant

A. Semenov

2nd Assistant

S. Prychyna

4th Official

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv M. Bartulović
M. Bartulović
VS
Dynamo Kyiv I. Kostyuk
I. Kostyuk
1.54
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.79
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: D
SK Poltava Rank: W
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
Oleksandria Rank: W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Karpaty Rank: L
Oleksandria Rank: W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: W
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
24.7%
Draw
29.07%
Away Dynamo Kyiv
46.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
-67.99%
Draw
+22.71%
Dynamo Kyiv
+45.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.98
34.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Dynamo Kyiv
Power Score
21.98
34.89
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Dynamo Kyiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Dynamo Kyiv

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dynamo Kyiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Kyiv
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
5.14
11.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.62
5.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv -0.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Dynamo Kyiv +0.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Dynamo Kyiv
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Kyiv
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Dynamo Kyiv
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Dynamo Kyiv
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Dynamo Kyiv
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
vs
Dynamo Kyiv
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Dynamo Kyiv
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.06
Dynamo Kyiv 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Dynamo Kyiv
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.00
Dynamo Kyiv 0.06
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Dynamo Kyiv
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DYN had peak pressure around 23'.
  • DYN started the game with stronger pressure.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Pressure DYN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DYN reached the top pressure at 23' (60.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Home
6 matches
Dynamo Kyiv DYN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
0
Goals
6
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
6
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:03:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
D. Varakuta
Ukraine
30 D. Varakuta
I. Krupskyi
Ukraine
27 I. Krupskyi
V. Salyuk
Ukraine
13 V. Salyuk
A. Shabanov
Ukraine
31 A. Shabanov
O. Martynyuk
Ukraine
24 O. Martynyuk
Y. Pavliuk
Ukraine
18 Y. Pavliuk
B. Zabergja
Substitution
Kosovo
26 B. Zabergja
C. Baptistella
Substitution
77 C. Baptistella
J. Árevalo Chaparro
Substitution
Colombia
16 J. Árevalo Chaparro
E. Rashica
Substitution
Albania
19 E. Rashica
P. Itodo
Substitution
Nigeria
98 P. Itodo
Pitch
R. Neshcheret
Ukraine
35 R. Neshcheret
K. Vivcharenko
Ukraine
2 K. Vivcharenko
T. Mykhavko
Ukraine
32 T. Mykhavko
K. Bilova
Ukraine
40 K. Bilova
O. Tymchyk
Substitution
Ukraine
18 O. Tymchyk
V. Brazhko
Ukraine
6 V. Brazhko
N. Voloshyn
Ukraine
9 N. Voloshyn
M. Shaparenko
Substitution
Ukraine
10 M. Shaparenko
M. Mykhailenko
Substitution
Ukraine
91 M. Mykhailenko
A. Yarmolenko
Substitution
Ukraine
7 A. Yarmolenko
E. Guerrero Lozcano
Substitution
Panama
39 E. Guerrero Lozcano

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Tsentralnyi Stadion
Capacity :
5928
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Dmytro Zaporozhenko
Andrii Semenov
Sofia Prychyna
Roman Blavatskiy

Statistics

Possession
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
37%
DYN
63%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Shots 2
16 Dangerous attacks 51
35 Possession 65
2 Corners 9
10 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 2
1 Assists 0

Attacking

44 Attacks 74

Defensive

3 Saves 0

Discipline

10 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Roman Blavatskiy

Starting XI ▼

30
Danylo Varakuta
Danylo Varakuta Goalkeeper
13
Volodymyr Salyuk
Volodymyr Salyuk Defender
18
Yevgen Pavlyuk
Yevgen Pavlyuk Defender
24
Oleksandr Martynyuk
Oleksandr Martynyuk Defender
27
Ilya Krupskyi
Ilya Krupskyi Defender
31
Artem Shabanov
Artem Shabanov Defender
16
Nicolás Arévalo
Nicolás Arévalo Midfielder
25
Ivan Lytvynenko
Ivan Lytvynenko
Midfielder60'
19
Ermir Rashica
Ermir Rashica Midfielder
17
Igor Kogut
Igor Kogut
Midfielder76'
26
Baton Zabergja
Baton Zabergja Midfielder
15
Denys Antyukh
Denys Antyukh
Midfielder60'
77
Cauan Matteo Baptistella
Cauan Matteo Baptistella Midfielder
45
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev
Midfielder27'
98
Peter Mandela Itodo
Peter Mandela Itodo Attacker
99
Christian Mba
Christian Mba
Attacker76'
Referee : Roman Blavatskiy

Starting XI ▼

35
Ruslan Neshcheret
Ruslan Neshcheret Goalkeeper
2
Kostyantyn Vivcharenko
Kostyantyn Vivcharenko Defender
18
Oleksandr Tymchyk
Oleksandr Tymchyk Defender
13
Maksym Korobov
Maksym Korobov
Defender83'
32
Taras Mykhavko
Taras Mykhavko Defender
40
Kristian Bilovar
Kristian Bilovar Defender
6
Volodymyr Brazhko
Volodymyr Brazhko Midfielder
7
Andriy Yarmolenko
Andriy Yarmolenko Midfielder
70
Bogdan Redushko
Bogdan Redushko
Midfielder66'
9
Nazar Voloshyn
Nazar Voloshyn Midfielder
10
Mykola Shaparenko
Mykola Shaparenko Midfielder
8
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Midfielder76'
91
Mykola Mykhaylenko
Mykola Mykhaylenko Midfielder
29
Vitaliy Buyalskyi
Vitaliy Buyalskyi
Midfielder83'
39
Eduardo Guerrero
Eduardo Guerrero Attacker
16
Shola Ogundana
Shola Ogundana
Midfielder66'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Danylo Varakuta
2nd Yellowcard
90+5'
83'
Event
Vitaliy Buyalskyi   → Mykola Mykhaylenko
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Maksym Korobov → Oleksandr Tymchyk
10th Substitution
Event
Denys Antyukh
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
78'
Event
Igor Kogut → Ermir Rashica
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Christian Mba → Peter Mandela Itodo
7th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok → Mykola Shaparenko
8th Substitution
66'
Event
Bogdan Redushko → Andriy Yarmolenko
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Shola Ogundana → Eduardo Guerrero
4th Substitution
Event
Denys Antyukh → Baton Zabergja
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Ivan Lytvynenko → Nicolás Arévalo
3rd Substitution
60'
47'
Event
Nazar Voloshyn
1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev → Cauan Matteo Baptistella
1st Substitution
27'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.