Mjällby vs Örgryte Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Strandvallen Sat, 11 Apr - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Mjällby Mjällby
0 Winner 2
Örgryte Örgryte
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
|
Goal
Anton Andreasson - 21'
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo - 26'

CONTEXT

The match between Mjällby and Örgryte is finished with a full-time score of 0-0. Pre-match expectations pointed strongly toward a home win, with projections assigning Mjällby a 70.5 percent likelihood of victory against just 10.7 percent for an Örgryte success. The draw therefore marked a significant deviation, centered on Mjällby, who were unable to translate their status as the stronger side into three points despite controlling proceedings. Mjällby held 64 percent possession to Örgryte’s 36, yet no xG figures are available to quantify chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and the final result did not align with the pre-match projection. No red cards were issued and no decisive late events altered the outcome, leaving Mjällby to settle for a point after failing to break down a resilient visiting defense.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mjällby showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Aganovic
A. Aganovic
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.59
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
A. Svensson
A. Svensson
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.59
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
R. Nyberg
R. Nyberg
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.59
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
F. Klitte
F. Klitte
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.59
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Mjällby Karl Marius Aksum
Karl Marius Aksum
VS
Örgryte C. Holmberg
C. Holmberg
2.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2.4 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hammarby Rank: L
Häcken Rank: W
Värnamo Rank: W
Norrköping Rank: W
IFK Göteborg Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Malmö FF Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mjällby
70.52%
Draw
18.81%
Away Örgryte
10.67%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mjällby
+70.28%
Draw
+16.43%
Örgryte
-86.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.55
20
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mjällby
Örgryte
Power Score
32.55
20
League Position
16
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mjällby — Opponent-weighted form score
Örgryte — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mjällby Örgryte

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mjällby

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Örgryte

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mjällby ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Örgryte
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.05
25.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.56
43.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mjällby +1.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Örgryte -1.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mjällby
Örgryte
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mjällby ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Örgryte
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mjällby Örgryte
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mjällby Örgryte
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mjällby
Örgryte
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mjällby
vs
Örgryte
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mjällby Örgryte
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mjällby 0.25
Örgryte 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mjällby Örgryte
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mjällby 0.08
Örgryte 0.00
Mjällby
Örgryte
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Mjällby had peak pressure around 68'.
  • Mjällby started the game with stronger pressure.
Mjällby Pressure Örgryte Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Mjällby reached the top pressure at 68' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mjällby Mjällby Home
0 matches
Örgryte Örgryte Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:04:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
R. Wallinder
Sweden
13 R. Wallinder
T. Miettinen
Substitution
Finland
33 T. Miettinen
A. Norén
Sweden
4 A. Norén
T. Pettersson
Sweden
24 T. Pettersson
M. Nielsen
Substitution
Denmark
25 M. Nielsen
R. Leandersson
Substitution
39 R. Leandersson
J. Gustavsson
Sweden
22 J. Gustavsson
W. Granath
Substitution
Sweden
14 W. Granath
E. Stroud
Sweden
17 E. Stroud
J. Bergström
Sweden
18 J. Bergström
A. Manneh
19 A. Manneh
H. Gustafsson
Sweden
44 H. Gustafsson
M. Parker
England
2 M. Parker
M. Dyrestam
Guinea
6 M. Dyrestam
C. Styffe
Sweden
5 C. Styffe
A. Andreasson
Sweden
19 A. Andreasson
B. Laturnus
Canada
8 B. Laturnus
O. Parker-Price
New Zealand
23 O. Parker-Price
W. Svensson
Substitution
Sweden
24 W. Svensson
T. Sana
Substitution
Sweden
22 T. Sana
J. Tibbling Ugwo
Substitution
Sweden
15 J. Tibbling Ugwo
W. Hofvander
Substitution
Sweden
17 W. Hofvander

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
Strandvallen
Capacity
6500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adi Aganovic
Andreas Svensson
Robert Nyberg
Fredrik Klitte

Statistics

Possession
Mjällby
60%
Örgryte
40%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
16 Shots 5
91 Dangerous attacks 24
64 Possession 36
12 Corners 3
18 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

22 Throwins 19
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
16 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Goal Kicks 18
6 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
33 Ball Safe 50
10 Goal Attempts 5
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

134 Attacks 66

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 76
13 Key Passes 6
18 Successful Long Passes 36
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
493 Successful Passes 254
40 Long Passes 66
578 Passes 334

Defensive

5 Tackles 18
11 Interceptions 9
2 Saves 4

Build-up

12 Accurate Crosses 2
39 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

6 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Adi Aganovic

Starting XI ▼

13
Robin Wallinder
Robin Wallinder Goalkeeper
4
Axel Norén
Axel Norén Defender
24
Tom Pettersson
Tom Pettersson Defender
33
Tony Miettinen
Tony Miettinen Defender
5
Abdullah Iqbal
Abdullah Iqbal
Defender65'
14
Villiam Granath
Villiam Granath Midfielder
23
Á. Samuelsen
Á. Samuelsen
Attacker46'
22
Jesper Gustavsson
Jesper Gustavsson Midfielder
25
M. Nielsen
M. Nielsen Midfielder
15
Bork Bang-Kittilsen
Bork Bang-Kittilsen
Attacker79'
39
Romeo Leandersson
Romeo Leandersson Midfielder
7
Viktor Gustafson
Viktor Gustafson
Midfielder46'
17
Elliot Stroud
Elliot Stroud Attacker
18
Jacob Bergström
Jacob Bergström Attacker
19
Abdoulie Manneh
Abdoulie Manneh Attacker
Referee : Adi Aganovic

Starting XI ▼

44
Hampus Gustafsson
Hampus Gustafsson Goalkeeper
2
Michael Parker
Michael Parker Defender
5
Christoffer Styffe
Christoffer Styffe Defender
6
Mikael Dyrestam
Mikael Dyrestam Defender
8
Benjamin Laturnus
Benjamin Laturnus Midfielder
19
Anton Andreasson
Anton Andreasson Midfielder
23
Owen Parker-Price
Owen Parker-Price Midfielder
24
William Svensson
William Svensson Midfielder
33
S. Lagerlund
S. Lagerlund
Defender90+3'
15
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo Attacker
25
Demirel Hodzic
Demirel Hodzic
Midfielder77'
17
William Hofvander
William Hofvander Attacker
11
Noah Christoffersson
Noah Christoffersson
Attacker77'
22
Tobias Sana
Tobias Sana Attacker
10
Rasmus Alm
Rasmus Alm
Midfielder70'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
William Kenndal → Rasmus Alm
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
S. Lagerlund → William Svensson
10th Substitution
Event
Ludvig Tidstrand → Á. Samuelsen
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Bork Bang-Kittilsen → M. Nielsen
7th Substitution
79'
77'
Event
Demirel Hodzic → Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Noah Christoffersson → William Hofvander
5th Substitution
75'
Event
William Hofvander
Simulation / 4th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Rasmus Alm → Tobias Sana
4th Substitution
Event
Abdullah Iqbal → Tony Miettinen
3rd Substitution
65'
61'
Event
Tobias Sana
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Viktor Gustafson → Romeo Leandersson
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Á. Samuelsen → Villiam Granath
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Tom Pettersson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
31'
26'
Event
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
21'
Event
Anton Andreasson
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
3'
Event
Michael Parker
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Mjällby exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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