Pescara vs Sampdoria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia Sat, 11 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Pescara PES
1 Winner 2
Sampdoria SAM
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Antonio Di Nardo - 45+3' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Francesco Conti - 82'
Fabio Depaoli - 90+3'

CONTEXT

The match between Pescara and Sampdoria is now finished, ending with a full-time score of Pescara 1-2 Sampdoria. Pescara led 1-0 at the interval but were unable to hold their advantage, as the visitors scored twice after the break to complete a comeback victory. Pre-match expectations had positioned Pescara as the more likely winners. The significant deviation in favor of Sampdoria produced a result that did not align with the pre-match projection. Although Pescara were identified as the stronger side overall, they could not convert that edge into a positive outcome. The efficiency shift remained in line with the balance of play, and there were no red cards or major disciplinary incidents to alter the flow of the contest. Possession was almost equal throughout, with Pescara recording 49 percent compared to Sampdoria’s 51 percent. No xG data was available to assess whether the final score reflected expected goals, leaving the result open to interpretation on that metric alone. In the end, Sampdoria proved more decisive in the decisive moments, securing a result that contradicted the anticipated outcome. (168 words)

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sampdoria showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Allegretta
C. Allegretta
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
M. Piccinini
M. Piccinini
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
M. Regattieri
M. Regattieri
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
Gilberto Laghezza
Gilberto Laghezza
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
Pescara G. Gorgone
G. Gorgone
VS
Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: W
Empoli Rank: L
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Südtirol Rank: D
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Frosinone Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: W
Avellino Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: L
Venezia Rank: D
Frosinone Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pescara
42.66%
Draw
28.23%
Away Sampdoria
29.11%

Movement

Changes since opening
Pescara
+42.47%
Draw
+22.58%
Sampdoria
-65.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.78
23.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pescara
Sampdoria
Power Score
23.78
23.2
League Position
18
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pescara — Opponent-weighted form score
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pescara Sampdoria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pescara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pescara ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.90
30.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.88
29.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pescara -0.10 Efficiency Index
vs
Sampdoria +0.10 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pescara
Sampdoria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pescara ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pescara Sampdoria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pescara Sampdoria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Pescara
Sampdoria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Pescara
vs
Sampdoria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Pescara Sampdoria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Pescara 0.39
Sampdoria 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Pescara Sampdoria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Pescara 0.06
Sampdoria 0.03
Pescara
Sampdoria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SAM had peak pressure around 34'.
  • PES started the game with stronger pressure.
PES Pressure SAM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SAM reached the top pressure at 34' (85.84).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pescara PES Home
8 matches
Sampdoria SAM Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
10
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:04:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Saio
Italy
22 I. Saio
R. Capellini
Italy
2 R. Capellini
G. Altare
Substitution
Italy
15 G. Altare
D. Bettella
Italy
6 D. Bettella
A. Cagnano
Italy
32 A. Cagnano
L. Valzania
Substitution
Italy
14 L. Valzania
G. Brugman
Uruguay
8 G. Brugman
G. Olzer
Substitution
Italy
27 G. Olzer
G. Acampora
Substitution
Italy
13 G. Acampora
L. Insigne
Italy
11 L. Insigne
A. Di Nardo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Di Nardo
T. Martinelli
Italy
50 T. Martinelli
S. Giordano
Substitution
Italy
21 S. Giordano
M. Viti
Italy
2 M. Viti
O. Abildgaard
Denmark
28 O. Abildgaard
A. Di Pardo
Italy
29 A. Di Pardo
S. Esposito
Substitution
Italy
94 S. Esposito
F. Conti
Italy
33 F. Conti
N. Pierini
Substitution
Italy
77 N. Pierini
Antonín Barák
Substitution
Czech Republic
72 Antonín Barák
T. Begić
Slovenia
11 T. Begić
M. Brunori Sandri
Italy
99 M. Brunori Sandri

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia
Capacity
20520
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Marco Piccinini
Mattia Regattieri
Gilberto Laghezza

Statistics

Possession
PES
48%
SAM
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 4
11 Shots 10
33 Dangerous attacks 35
49 Possession 51
5 Corners 3
23 Free kicks 27
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

71 Ball Safe 66
21 Throwins 18
16 Dribble Attempts 16
6 Successful Dribbles 11
6 Goal Attempts 10
11 Goal Kicks 9
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Penalties 0
0 Injuries 1
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 4
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69

Attacking

74 Attacks 87
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

77 Successful Passes Percentage 82
51 Long Passes 47
278 Successful Passes 308
15 Successful Long Passes 20
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
361 Passes 375
8 Key Passes 11

Defensive

12 Interceptions 7
8 Tackles 19
0 Saves 1

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

27 Fouls 21
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

22
Ivan Saio
Ivan Saio Goalkeeper
2
Riccardo Capellini
Riccardo Capellini Defender
6
Davide Bettella
Davide Bettella Defender
15
Giorgio Altare
Giorgio Altare Defender
26
Andreaw Gravillon
Andreaw Gravillon
Defender79'
32
Andrea Cagnano
Andrea Cagnano Defender
8
Gastón Brugman
Gastón Brugman Midfielder
11
Lorenzo Insigne
Lorenzo Insigne Midfielder
13
Gennaro Acampora
Gennaro Acampora Midfielder
7
Lorenzo Meazzi
Lorenzo Meazzi
Attacker67'
14
Luca Valzania
Luca Valzania Midfielder
3
Gaetano Letizia
Gaetano Letizia
Defender79'
27
Giacomo Olzer
Giacomo Olzer Midfielder
21
Fabrizio Caligara
Fabrizio Caligara
Midfielder61'
9
Antonio Di Nardo
Antonio Di Nardo Attacker
31
Flavio Russo
Flavio Russo
Attacker79'
Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Defender
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano Defender
7
Manuel Cicconi
Manuel Cicconi
Midfielder68'
28
Oliver Abildgaard
Oliver Abildgaard Defender
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Defender
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Midfielder
33
Francesco Conti
Francesco Conti Midfielder
72
Antonín Barák
Antonín Barák Midfielder
10
Luigi Cherubini
Luigi Cherubini
Attacker53'
77
Nicholas Pierini
Nicholas Pierini Midfielder
23
Fabio Depaoli
Fabio Depaoli
Defender88'
94
Salvatore Esposito
Salvatore Esposito Midfielder
8
Matteo Ricci
Matteo Ricci
Midfielder68'
99
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Matteo Luigi Brunori Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Fabio Depaoli
7th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
8th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Fabio Depaoli
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
88'
Event
Fabio Depaoli → Nicholas Pierini
9th Substitution
Event
Giorgio Gorgone
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Lorenzo Meazzi
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
83'
82'
Event
Francesco Conti
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Flavio Russo → Antonio Di Nardo
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Andreaw Gravillon → Giorgio Altare
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Gaetano Letizia → Luca Valzania
7th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Matteo Ricci
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Manuel Cicconi → Simone Giordano
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Matteo Ricci → Salvatore Esposito
5th Substitution
Event
Lorenzo Meazzi → Gennaro Acampora
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Fabrizio Caligara → Giacomo Olzer
2nd Substitution
61'
53'
Event
Luigi Cherubini → Antonín Barák
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Antonio Di Nardo
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+3'
Event
Andrea Cagnano
Penalty awarded
45+1'
Event
Davide Bettella
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
42'
Event
Luca Valzania
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
27'
Event
Nicholas Pierini
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
21'
Event
Mattia Viti
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sampdoria exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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