Südtirol vs Modena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Marco Druso Sat, 11 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Südtirol SUD
1 – 1
Modena MOD
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Nicola Pietrangeli - 60'
Goal
|
Goal
Simone Santoro - 21'

CONTEXT

The match between Südtirol and Modena is finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to Südtirol. The hosts overturned a half-time deficit of 0-1, scoring in the second half to claim all three points in a game that saw no red cards or other major disciplinary incidents. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, with Südtirol emerging as the winner despite Modena being viewed as the stronger side beforehand. The projection had pointed toward a different outcome, and the final result did not align with that forecast. Possession was closely contested throughout, finishing at 47% for Südtirol and 53% for Modena, while no xG data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with general expectations, even as the victory provided a clear upset. Overall, Südtirol capitalized on their opportunities after the interval to secure a result that contradicted the anticipated flow of the contest. (168 words)

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Südtirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Zanotti
A. Zanotti
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
G. Monaco
G. Monaco
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
C. Rinaldi
C. Rinaldi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
N. Turrini
N. Turrini
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
VS
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: D
Frosinone Rank: L
Avellino Rank: L
Pescara Rank: D
Virtus Entella Rank: L
Reggiana Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: L
Mantova Rank: W
Spezia Rank: W
Cesena Rank: D
Virtus Entella Rank: L
Calcio Padova Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Südtirol
4.07%
Draw
91.85%
Away Modena
4.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.72
21.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Südtirol
Modena
Power Score
18.72
21.29
League Position
10
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Modena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.53
37.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.74
45.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Südtirol +0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Modena -0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Modena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Südtirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Südtirol Modena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Südtirol Modena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Südtirol
Modena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Südtirol
vs
Modena
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Südtirol Modena
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Südtirol 0.26
Modena 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Südtirol Modena
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Südtirol 0.02
Modena 0.01
Südtirol
Modena
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SUD had peak pressure around 64'.
  • SUD started the game with stronger pressure.
SUD Pressure MOD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SUD reached the top pressure at 64' (67.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home
8 matches
Modena MOD Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
3
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:04:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
A. Masiello
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Masiello
N. Pietrangeli
Italy
19 N. Pietrangeli
F. Veseli
Albania
34 F. Veseli
S. Molina
Italy
79 S. Molina
F. Tait
Substitution
Italy
21 F. Tait
S. Tronchin
Substitution
Italy
18 S. Tronchin
D. Casiraghi
Substitution
Italy
17 D. Casiraghi
K. Zedadka
France
7 K. Zedadka
E. Pecorino
Substitution
Italy
9 E. Pecorino
S. Merkaj
Albania
33 S. Merkaj
L. Chichizola
Substitution
Argentina
1 L. Chichizola
B. Nieling
Netherlands
20 B. Nieling
S. Nador
Togo
19 S. Nador
D. Tonoli
Italy
77 D. Tonoli
L. Zanimacchia
Substitution
Italy
98 L. Zanimacchia
S. Santoro
Italy
8 S. Santoro
F. Gerli
Italy
16 F. Gerli
G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi
Substitution
2 G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi
P. Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes
Substitution
Portugal
11 P. Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes
Y. Massolin
Substitution
France
17 Y. Massolin
M. De Luca
Italy
99 M. De Luca

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Marco Druso
Capacity
5539
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrea Zanotti
Giacomo Monaco
Carlo Rinaldi
Niccolò Turrini

Statistics

Possession
SUD
48%
MOD
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 8
68 Dangerous attacks 60
47 Possession 53
7 Corners 9
12 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
11 Goal Kicks 12
12 Dribble Attempts 12
1 Penalties 0
23 Throwins 16
4 Successful Dribbles 7
5 Substitutions 5
3 Hit Woodwork 0
66 Ball Safe 74
0 Injuries 3
10 Goal Attempts 10
1 Assists 0

Attacking

82 Attacks 69
5 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

206 Successful Passes 243
281 Passes 320
22 Successful Long Passes 28
52 Long Passes 68
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
73 Successful Passes Percentage 76
13 Key Passes 11

Defensive

8 Tackles 13
2 Saves 4
3 Interceptions 7

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 4
28 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

11 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Zanotti

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
5
Andrea Masiello
Andrea Masiello Defender
23
Federico Davi
Federico Davi
Defender46'
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Defender
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka Midfielder
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi Midfielder
6
Jacopo Martini
Jacopo Martini
Midfielder77'
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Midfielder
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio
Midfielder69'
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait Midfielder
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj
Midfielder46'
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
90
Raphael Odogwu
Raphael Odogwu
Attacker84'
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
Referee : Andrea Zanotti

Starting XI ▼

1
Leandro Chichizola
Leandro Chichizola Goalkeeper
22
Michele Pezzolato
Michele Pezzolato
Goalkeeper10'
19
Steven Nador
Steven Nador Defender
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Defender
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli Defender
2
Gady Beyuku
Gady Beyuku Midfielder
29
Matteo Cotali
Matteo Cotali
Defender83'
8
Simone Santoro
Simone Santoro Midfielder
11
Pedro Mendes
Pedro Mendes Midfielder
10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Attacker69'
16
Fabio Gerli
Fabio Gerli Midfielder
98
Luca Zanimacchia
Luca Zanimacchia Midfielder
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano
Defender83'
17
Yanis Massolin
Yanis Massolin Attacker
18
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Midfielder69'
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Raphael Odogwu → Emanuele Pecorino
10th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Matteo Cotali → Gady Beyuku
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Francesco Zampano → Luca Zanimacchia
9th Substitution
Event
Nicola Pietrangeli
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Jacopo Martini → Daniele Casiraghi
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Marco Frigerio → Simone Tronchin
5th Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Niklas Pyyhtiä → Yanis Massolin
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Giuseppe Ambrosino → Pedro Mendes
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Gady Beyuku
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Nicola Pietrangeli
Header / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Domen Črnigoj → Fabian Tait
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Federico Davi → Andrea Masiello
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
21'
Event
Simone Santoro
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
10'
Event
Michele Pezzolato → Leandro Chichizola
1st Substitution
Event
Daniele Casiraghi
GoalkeeperSave
4'
Event
Daniel Tonoli
Penalty awarded
3'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Südtirol exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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